Anyone else preparing for a big selloff? Anyone else preparing for a big selloff? - Page 7 - Talk of The Villages Florida

Anyone else preparing for a big selloff?

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  #91  
Old 11-23-2024, 07:19 PM
ithos ithos is offline
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Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe View Post
Lol, archaic. You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade? Archaic because it has been here long before you, and will continue to be valued for millenia after we all fade away?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.

Yeah - You put your money in that, and I'll stick with gold. Ya know, I'll keep that archaic stuff that's been proven for more centuries than years you've been alive.
I was being sarcastic because there actually are prominent corporate executives who advocate that nonsense.
Why Bitcoin? Michael Saylor breaks down BTC’s edge over gold, stocks! - AMBCrypto
  #92  
Old 11-23-2024, 10:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ElDiabloJoe View Post
Lol, archaic.
You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.
They both the same, except one can be made into jewelry. They are both backed by a belief system, nothing more. Gold just has a longer history of a belief system than bitcoin.
  #93  
Old 11-24-2024, 09:00 AM
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They both the same, except one can be made into jewelry. They are both backed by a belief system, nothing more. Gold just has a longer history of a belief system than bitcoin.
I think your reasoning is overly simplistic. Gold has several unique tangible values and properties that are not present in most other metals. Yes the attraction due to its visual properties may be called superficial. However, the quantity of metals that are malleable, visually pleasing and which do not tarnish or corrode are very limited. This made it a perfect candidate for currency in the days before reserve banks and electricity.

Unlike Bitcoin, Gold is not virtual can not be replicated. Bitcoin only makes up 50% of the total market cap of crypto. But now that the new administration has decided to spend tax payers money to acquire it as a reserve, that percentage will go significantly higher. However, another administration could be elected and decide to sell it, in which case the price would collapse. This would not be the case of with gold.
  #94  
Old 11-24-2024, 09:04 AM
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I'm sitting on it all & just watching. the market goes up & down with these events in between. i did consider buying more since the prices were lower, but I'm super cautious about these things-i'm sitting it out
  #95  
Old 11-24-2024, 09:12 AM
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Based on the campaign messages of the new administration, the global warming agenda will probably be thrown out the window.

There will obviously be losers and winners. Does anyone have opinions on which publicly traded companies will be affected the most?
  #96  
Old 11-26-2024, 07:18 AM
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  #97  
Old 11-26-2024, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by ithos View Post
I think your reasoning is overly simplistic.
Nope, your history just proved a belief system of value, 90% of which was in the agrarian age without anything from the industrial nor technology age. Because of its color and easily malleability, people believed it was valuable. Silver has very similar properties in the agrarian age, but was never given any such valuation by humans as a collective. color maybe? especially in the agrarian age where lighting was fire or solar only

There was a short lived belief system in tulips as well. What back it? just a belief system in being wealthy

So the belief from an old, completely different age, which people today can't relate, continues, and is being challenged in a completely different age by a new belief.

BTC is now a new belief system in something of value from a different age, the technological age. One can buy and sell gold with a belief system in technology and storage. Luddites I think that one of the Bills call those don't believe in any change, like some religions.

Still the same with bitcoin. . you can buy and sell it with a belief in technology system.

You as a human, judge and value everything from your individual belief system. No different, especially when the concept of wealth is conceptually linked with monetary amounts.
  #98  
Old 11-26-2024, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by dewilson58 View Post
The equity part of my portfolio is growing measurably and I am enjoying the ride but keeping my seatbelt fastened. The Shiller CAPE hit 38.20 today. The cash portion is paying between 4% and 5%. I am sleeping very well these days.
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Old 11-26-2024, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by manaboutown View Post
The equity part of my portfolio is growing measurably and I am enjoying the ride but keeping my seatbelt fastened. The Shiller CAPE hit 38.20 today. The cash portion is paying between 4% and 5%. I am sleeping very well these days.
Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".
  #100  
Old 11-26-2024, 11:07 AM
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Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".
If you have been a buy and hold investor for the past 45 years, selling your stocks now will cost a huge amount in capital gains taxes. And, for about 10 years, cash paid almost nothing in interest.
  #101  
Old 11-26-2024, 11:21 AM
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Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".
Oh I do trade for entertainment and lucked into NVDA. A few days ago I checked and my cash position is now down to 35% of my stock/bond/T-bill/money market portfolio due to the remarkably ascending market in equities (thank you NVDA!). 75% of my invested assets remain in real estate, most of which generates rental income. I keep enough cash on hand to see me (frugally) through several years if necessary. I use a "sleep at night" test. In 2022 I started taking a serious interest in the stock market as I had to sell a large property, then another in 2023. Before that my stock market holding were frankly inconsequential in the whole scope of things.
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Last edited by manaboutown; 11-26-2024 at 11:30 AM.
  #102  
Old 11-26-2024, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
If you have been a buy and hold investor for the past 45 years, selling your stocks now will cost a huge amount in capital gains taxes. And, for about 10 years, cash paid almost nothing in interest.
True that! And, drum roll, welcome to IRMAA, NIIT and AMT.
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  #103  
Old 11-26-2024, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by manaboutown View Post
The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl
One would be crazy to sell anytime soon with the current forecasts getting much brighter for the market.
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  #104  
Old 11-26-2024, 03:30 PM
ElDiabloJoe ElDiabloJoe is offline
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Originally Posted by ithos View Post
I was being sarcastic because there actually are prominent corporate executives who advocate that nonsense.
Why Bitcoin? Michael Saylor breaks down BTC’s edge over gold, stocks! - AMBCrypto
Ahhh. I couldn't see your tongue-in-cheek from the keyboard. Gold, despite being shiny and rare, is also a space-aged conductor. Another valuable use for it.
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  #105  
Old 11-27-2024, 12:21 AM
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There is a lot of cash flowing into USA equities from Europe since the place is being rapidly destroyed.

How much gold dust do you need to scape off your bar in order to purchase a Jersey Mike sub? Bitcoin is indestructible and divisible digital capital with no counterparty and is limited to 21M coins. It literally is perfect money...The FIRST perfect money. It cannot be stolen or counterfeited.
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