[rmd2]

I went through the dot-com bust and would never do it again. I put my money into plain old CDs an have done much better than I did with the market. Until just recently I had 6% CDs that matured after 10 years. I now have 3% to 4% CDs and they are doing well. Making money each month and compounding so I'm happy. I have the "pillow factor" under control. All these market problems are of no concern to me. In fact when the Feds raise the rates the CD rates go up so it a win-win for me.
Also CDs have zero cost - no management fees, buy/sell fees, and many other fees that stock/bond places charge investors. My go to places for CDs are Pentagon Federal and Navy Federal Credit Unions. These 2 credit unions have the highest ratings.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

I do believe that all info available is factored into the stock market pricing and kind of think the market is near or close to a bottom so started to invest into mutual funds that have done well for me over the years.

Similar here. I never panic. Of the many books I'v read on the markets and investing, one of the first left quite an impression. (if I could remember the title I'd mention it... think it was about Jessy Livermore). Sometimes ONE thing, idea, fact, strategy, or in a book will hit an individual deeply. For me it was a chart that showed the immense wealth that those who committed suicide during the great "crash" would have eventually enjoyed if only they had not taken their own lives. That influenced my investing from the onset. I always look at every "drop" as a buying opportunity, especially when a major "correction" comes. It has always paid off, big time, but yes, I certainly have friends who would question my mental health if they knew the more my portfolio looses value "on paper", the more stocks, and even index funds, I buy !

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by justjim

I have not been a regular trader for about 20 years. That said, my IRA’s, 457b plan and stocks are invested in diversified mutual funds with T. Rowe Price. I am happy with that decision and have “prospered” with this arrangement. Occasionally I adjust my portfolio accordingly with professional help. Yes, the “market”
Is down but I don’t lose any sleep over it and I stay active doing other things with the time I have left. I have a couple of friends who spend a lot of their time “in the market” and I say more power to them. Doing what you want to do with your time is what retirement is all about IMHO.

Definitely the right attitude ! Live and let live !

[Two Bills]

Have not touched stocks for 25 years, just played a little with currency rates.
Anyone who travels, or plans to in near future to Europe, and specially to UK, now is a very good time to purchase £ and Euros.
US$ is strong against both, in fact the £ has tanked!

[retiredguy123]

I never try to time the stock market because I admit that I don't understand it. I have always been a buy and hold investor and have done well. They say that the stock market responds to predictions of future events. If that is so, then why is the market going down now when everything that has happened with interest rates and the economy was totally predictable at least 6 months ago? Also, they say that owning stock means that you actually own part of a profitable company. So, if I own shares in McDonald's, that sells millions of hamburgers every day at a profit, why does the stock value decline when other stocks decline in a single day? Just because some stocks go down, should have no effect on the number of hamburgers that McDonald's sells that day, and the value of the company. Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

I never try to time the stock market because I admit that I don't understand it. I have always been a buy and hold investor and have done well. They say that the stock market responds to predictions of future events. If that is so, then why is the market going down now when everything that has happened with interest rates and the economy was totally predictable at least 6 months ago? Also, they say that owning stock means that you actually own part of a profitable company. So, if I own shares in McDonald's, that sells millions of hamburgers every day at a profit, why does the stock value decline when other stocks decline in a single day? Just because some stocks go down, should have no effect on the number of hamburgers that McDonald's sells that day, and the value of the company. Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?

" Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?"

I always find it interesting at how many claim (while being anonymous) how well they've done - 'timing' the market(s). Sorry, if I don't believe 90% of ya.

While the last month has been a bit rough, I personally will continue with my (relatively conservative) investment allocations and will sleep comfortably knowing that I don't need to sell/draw down anything, as I am fortunate to have defined benefit pensions for my retirement income. Recognizing that not everyone is as lucky, I would still caution against panicking and selling at such a low point, since history shows that doing so puts you at risk of missing out on some significant gains in a very short period - 'when' (not 'if') the markets rebound.

Good luck to all.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Have not touched stocks for 25 years, just played a little with currency rates.
Anyone who travels, or plans to in near future to Europe, and specially to UK, now is a very good time to purchase £ and Euros.
US$ is strong against both, in fact the £ has tanked!

How much stronger can the dollar get against pounds and euros? At some point it will not drop any further.

Not for me as I do like to at least see some dividends coming my way.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

I never try to time the stock market because I admit that I don't understand it. I have always been a buy and hold investor and have done well. They say that the stock market responds to predictions of future events. If that is so, then why is the market going down now when everything that has happened with interest rates and the economy was totally predictable at least 6 months ago? Also, they say that owning stock means that you actually own part of a profitable company. So, if I own shares in McDonald's, that sells millions of hamburgers every day at a profit, why does the stock value decline when other stocks decline in a single day? Just because some stocks go down, should have no effect on the number of hamburgers that McDonald's sells that day, and the value of the company. Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?

I am definitely not a timer but the answer I would give you is that when people think the economy will decline they assume less burgers will be sold.

[Two Bills]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

How much stronger can the dollar get against pounds and euros? At some point it will not drop any further.

Not for me as I do like to at least see some dividends coming my way.

I haven't a clue.
I just stated that anyone considering a trip to Europe or UK, now is a very good time to buy the currency.
Tomorrow could be better, or worse, but now is a bargain.

[Caymus]

Another horrible CPI report today. How high will interest rates rise?

[55&Out]

According to traditional economic definitions we are already in a RECESSION, however upcoming midterm elections (with associated rhetorical devices) prohibits the open use of the word. My bet is that the next 12-18 months (possibly longer) will be tough economically. Not a good time to be selling a home...

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Can one of you stock market timers explain these things?

First daily volatility swings is not investing, but the results of very large trading positions unwinding or the collision with huge funds reallocating funds or the collision with monthly 401K inflows positioning into equities

Second, market valuation movements is due to investor preference between real treasury bond interest and capital gain rates and stock potential real cash flow growth and dividends.

Macdonalds might has a terminal growth rate of 3 pct over inflation, but still subject to human management mistakes or other event risks to the company. if bonds have a 5 percent return over inflation, where would you put new money for the moment? bonds would be where one would get a better yield at the moment.

So in reality, its the competition between future stock company uncertainty of cash growth rates, and the relative certainty of bond real interest rate and capital gains certainty by the return of capital at the bond life end.

simple, but portfolio implementation is very difficult with the uncertainty of the future in any particular equity.

current recent long for me, though underwater, are long treasury bonds and XLE

posing CFA guy

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

First daily volatility swings is not investing, but the results of very large trading positions unwinding or the collision with huge funds reallocating funds or the collision with monthly 401K inflows positioning into equities

Second, market valuation movements is due to investor preference between real treasury bond interest and capital gain rates and stock potential real cash flow growth and dividends.

Macdonalds might has a terminal growth rate of 3 pct over inflation, but still subject to human management mistakes or other event risks to the company. if bonds have a 5 percent return over inflation, where would you put new money for the moment? bonds would be where one would get a better yield at the moment.

So in reality, its the competition between future stock company uncertainty of cash growth rates, and the relative certainty of bond real interest rate and capital gains certainty by the return of capital at the bond life end.

simple, but portfolio implementation is very difficult with the uncertainty of the future in any particular equity.

current recent long for me, though underwater, are long treasury bonds and XLE

posing CFA guy

My point about McDonald's is that some people buy a stock because they think that, if the company sells a product and makes a profit, they will share in that profit. But, it is not nearly that simple or logical. It's pretty clear that McDonald's makes a profit on every hamburger they sell. But, when the overall stock market declines, the McDonald's stock will also decline, even though they are still making a profit on every hamburger. That is why I don't pick stocks or time the market.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

First daily volatility swings is not investing, but the results of very large trading positions unwinding or the collision with huge funds reallocating funds or the collision with monthly 401K inflows positioning into equities

Second, market valuation movements is due to investor preference between real treasury bond interest and capital gain rates and stock potential real cash flow growth and dividends.

Macdonalds might has a terminal growth rate of 3 pct over inflation, but still subject to human management mistakes or other event risks to the company. if bonds have a 5 percent return over inflation, where would you put new money for the moment? bonds would be where one would get a better yield at the moment.

So in reality, its the competition between future stock company uncertainty of cash growth rates, and the relative certainty of bond real interest rate and capital gains certainty by the return of capital at the bond life end.

simple, but portfolio implementation is very difficult with the uncertainty of the future in any particular equity.

current recent long for me, though underwater, are long treasury bonds and XLE

posing CFA guy

As interest rates continue to rise your long treasury will also lose money so would think you would be better off in short term instruments.

What is XLE?

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

My point about McDonald's is that some people buy a stock because they think that, if the company sells a product and makes a profit, they will share in that profit. But, it is not nearly that simple or logical. It's pretty clear that McDonald's makes a profit on every hamburger they sell. But, when the overall stock market declines, the McDonald's stock will also decline, even though they are still making a profit on every hamburger. That is why I don't pick stocks or time the market.

I agree and think that dollar cost averaging into well run stocks or funds makes the most sense