[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by huge-pigeons

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.


“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

IMO were already in one, feds fudge/manipulate numbers to make it look better than it is?

[Ptmcbriz]

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Ptmcbriz

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

Keep in mind, we are NOT reversing inflation.
Reducing the inflation rate.
We are still living with the cumulation of ~20% inflation over the last three years.

[nn0wheremann]

Originally Posted by huge-pigeons

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

As my guy from Chicago says, deficits and debts are bad, but with all that money in circulation, ride wave until you wipe out.

[nn0wheremann]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Keep in mind, we are NOT reversing inflation.
Reducing the inflation rate.
We are still living with the cumulation of ~20% inflation over the last three years.

Just think about the inflation we have coming, withe the border closed to the agricultural imports from our southern trading partner, and the labor shortage in the Ag industry, then the tariffs that will run up prices of almost all the consumer goods we buy.
Save your money now, you are going to need it.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by oneclickplus

There is a catastrophic depression coming when the US dollar literally fails. At $35 trillion in acknowledged debt (and multiples of that in unfunded liabilities), the Fed will continue to print, print, print and the spending power of the USD will go down , down, down. Eventually, there will be few buyers for the debt auctions which will force interest rates higher. And the cycle will just feed on itself.

Google "BRICS" if you are not familiar with it. What started out as 5 nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is now a consortium that includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of today, the BRICS nations' GDP exceeds that of the G7. The population of the BRICS nations is 45% of the world. About 40 more nations are looking to join BRICS which is poised to issue its own currency backed by gold. Our currency is backed by nothing except the world's acceptance post WW2. The world is now deliberately and quickly reversing that situation.

The goal of these nations is to dethrone the USD as the world's reserve currency. In doing so, the USD (and the USA) will be almost literally destroyed. Our greatly diluted dollar (think Zimbabwe) will buy almost nothing on the world markets.

Our leaders who continue to spend beyond our means are destroying our country. No matter who gets elected, this will be the outcome because none are interested in making hard choices.

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.

It's painful to read this but, bingo! You've hit the nail on the head and what blows me away is the fact that supposedly very bright people haven't grasped the whole picture of what is happening to this country and the forces behind it.

We continue to increase our population in a large fashion, gobble up valuable and productive farmland for housing and most people don't know how to get off their butts anymore and do physical labor. We are a very weak and vulnerable country at this point.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by huge-pigeons

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

He'll be right eventually

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

He'll be right eventually

Listen to Harry Dent and get some real perspective about the huge bubble in which we sit. And after the crash, it will take 2-3 years to recover, if we do... Printing so much money has made a huge mess.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by Rocksnap

This is a very difficult thing to discuss on here, as some subjects are a no no to discuss.
I’ll just say we were not heading down the recession road several years ago. But things have happened and we are now.
In fact; we have been in the starting stages of recession for a few years now. Even everyone’s fav investing/financial guru Jim Cramer has been saying so. For him to admit this is an eye opener.

If we were heading for a recession, would not the Fed start cutting rates last month? There are always naysayers on one side of a subject or another.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Aces4

Listen to Harry Dent and get some real perspective about the huge bubble in which we sit. And after the crash, it will take 2-3 years to recover, if we do... Printing so much money has made a huge mess.

LOL. Harry Dent is the quintessential PermaBear. He has been predicting doom for decades. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but not Harry.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Ptmcbriz

We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession.

The unemployment numbers are as believable as the stated inflation rate. Fake stats. Unemployment "is down" bc people aren't getting full time jobs but working multiple part time jobs instead, huge swaths of people who stopped looking or retired early, etc.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by oneclickplus

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.

If you really believed this, you would be selling your home in the US and moving to one of the up and coming BRICS nations. Are you?

I agree that you won't recognize the US 5 years from now. but maybe not entirely for the reasons you think.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

LOL. Harry Dent is the quintessential PermaBear. He has been predicting doom for decades. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but not Harry.

Lol, Harry Dent predicted the bear market at the end of the eighties and early nineties and they laughed at him then too. But he was right on the money.

Wonder who will have the last laugh, if it's even possible in a few years.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

If you really believed this, you would be selling your home in the US and moving to one of the up and coming BRICS nations. Are you?

I agree that you won't recognize the US 5 years from now. but maybe not entirely for the reasons you think.

That's the only solution you can come up with for the issues? I think that may be cyclops vision.

[Margefrog]

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