[retiredguy123]

Many people don't know that a recession does not track the stock market. The stock market usually peaks several months before a recession starts, then it bottoms out, but it starts to rise again during the recession.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

The unemployment numbers are as believable as the stated inflation rate. Fake stats. Unemployment "is down" bc people aren't getting full time jobs but working multiple part time jobs instead, huge swaths of people who stopped looking or retired early, etc.

Way back when in business school, a recession was when we had two successive quarters of negative growth in the gdp.

For some reason this indicator which was used for many years was ignored when we had this recently and it was decided we did not have a recession.

Also when people stop looking for jobs they are taken out of the labor force and not considered unemployed. This has been calculated in this manner for many years.

[ChrisTee]

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[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Aces4

Lol, Harry Dent predicted the bear market at the end of the eighties and early nineties and they laughed at him then too. But he was right on the money.

Wonder who will have the last laugh, if it's even possible in a few years.

Stopped clock. He predicted those bc he is always predicting doom and just happened to finally be right. The real question is how many times (correct answer= dozens) did he INcorrectly predict bear markets?

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Aces4

That's the only solution you can come up with for the issues? I think that may be cyclops vision.

It wasn't intended to be a solution. It was a commentary on the conviction of his beliefs.

Any different than Jews leaving Germany in the late 1930s when they could see the writing on the wall? Those who left survived, those who stayed perished. Is it 1938 Germany in the US now? If the UK and Paris are any indication, maybe. My point was that if you truly believe it to be the case, why would you stay here?

[Pugchief]

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[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by blueash

Is that the same Jamie Dimon who in June 2022 told investors that we needed to brace ourselves for an "economic hurricane"? Since then the DJIA is up about 20% well above historic gains. Maybe he is not such a great prognosticator, or he has an agenda.

I believe that Mr. Dimon is the only finance expert predicting a recession. As I understand it, the US is the least likely economy to have problems.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Andyb

Yes, part of the answer involves what can not be discussed on this platform. I think there may be a better idea of what can happened in about 3 months.
No matter anything, our national debt will cause a recession or depression. It is too far out of control and can not be reversed. It’s just a matter of time. The inflated costs of the last 2+ years cannot be reversed to any “responsible” level, even though inflation has slowed. The prices are set. Expect current costs of food, gas and about everything else to remain at these levels.

Prices on everything have a tendency to INCREASE rapidly, but decrease slowly. The US middle class does not have the same strength that it did from 1950 to about 1980.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by opinionist

We have been in recession for more than a decade. The inflation adjustment to GDP growth is based on a lie to cover for government incompetence. If you believe the published government inflation rate, you have not been to the grocery store lately.

I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Aces4

It's painful to read this but, bingo! You've hit the nail on the head and what blows me away is the fact that supposedly very bright people haven't grasped the whole picture of what is happening to this country and the forces behind it.

We continue to increase our population in a large fashion, gobble up valuable and productive farmland for housing and most people don't know how to get off their butts anymore and do physical labor. We are a very weak and vulnerable country at this point.

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.

Yeah, after doing some reading, that is par for the course when there is a Depression on the horizon. Oh wait.. Recession. Semantics.

I don't think the padded wallet people living in The Villages have any idea how much of a struggle it is right now for average people to keep up with their bills. The increases in food, fuel, medical care, insurances, taxes and so forth are choking the working class and middle to lower class citizens. How much welfare can all of us afford to dole out to keep people afloat at this stage and there is no end to be seen.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.

Have you been in the grocery store in the last 3 years?!

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

It wasn't intended to be a solution. It was a commentary on the conviction of his beliefs.

Any different than Jews leaving Germany in the late 1930s when they could see the writing on the wall? Those who left survived, those who stayed perished. Is it 1938 Germany in the US now? If the UK and Paris are any indication, maybe. My point was that if you truly believe it to be the case, why would you stay here?

Some people will always abandon ship for their own butts and then there are those who will fight to their death for their country. That simple.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

Do you mean volatile in an upward direction? Sure not going down.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by Ptmcbriz

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

IMO inflation never goes down enough to make up for increases.