[Bwanajim]

I use the analogy that you let the puppy crap on the rug for six months and then you try to house break it . The passing of NAFTA caused it & that was continued by both political parties!
( admin, I'm not being political.)😇
. It's gonna take a little bit of time to get us back together, but it will happen! Give it six months and you'll see!🇺🇸

[mikempp]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

New jobs report is spectacular, trillions of investments coming back to America, better trade laws, quit watching the lamestream news, the odds of a recession are zero.

[mikempp]

Bologna

[mikempp]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.

Only thing I see becoming unstable are the globalists.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by mikempp

New jobs report is spectacular, trillions of investments coming back to America, better trade laws, quit watching the lamestream news, the odds of a recession are zero.

Japan sold all of its US Treasury Bonds. That is a fact. And not an encouraging one. Also US consumer sentiment has fallen for the last 4 months.

[Pballer]

Big up day coming Monday on Wall Street now that Trump just removed tariffs on China for computers, smartphones, TVs, chips and other electronics.

[Whatnext]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Japan sold all of its US Treasury Bonds. That is a fact.

Some.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Whatnext

Some.

That's true. My mistake. But, the fact that Japan is selling ANY US Treasury Bonds shows that they are worrying about US unpredictability. For the same reason OTHER counties are also selling US Bonds.

[tophcfa]

This whole tariff thing is proving to be the fuse that is lighting the bomb, which is our country’s real problem that nobody seems to want to address. That problem is our country’s unsustainable level of ever growing debt (over $36 trillion and rapidly growing). Without foreign countries willingness to fund our country’s out of control debt levels, we are basically screwed. Anything we do that causes foreigners to loose confidence in the financial stability of the good old US of A spells disaster. Not to mention the fact that the interest payments alone on the debt are crippling to the nation’s budget. Stay tuned and buckle up, this has the potential to get very ugly.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

This whole tariff thing is proving to be the fuse that is lighting the bomb, which is our country’s real problem that nobody seems to want to address. That problem is our country’s unsustainable level of ever growing debt (over $36 trillion and rapidly growing). Without foreign countries willingness to fund our country’s out of control debt levels, we are basically screwed. Anything we do that causes foreigners to loose confidence in the financial stability of the good old US of A spells disaster. Not to mention the fact that the interest payments alone on the debt are crippling to the nation’s budget. Stay tuned and buckle up, this has the potential to get very ugly.

There is an old financial theory called Furganson's Law
that says when the interest on a country's debt EXCEEDS the money spent on it's military, then that country risks having big problems. And right now the US debt interest EXCEEDS the military spend by a small amount.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

There is an old financial theory that says when a country's debt EXCEEDS the money spent on it's military, then that country risks having big problems. And right now the US debt EXCEEDS the military spend by a small amount.

US debt depends on collecting TAX revenue and a lot of IRS agents have recently been fired so tax cheats will have, "happy days" and our country will suffer. US tax brackets have favored the Uber Wealthy since around 1980, but most of all for the last 8 years. It is going to be hard for foreign investors to have confidence in the US, when even US investors have lost confidence in the US.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

That's true. My mistake. But, the fact that Japan is selling ANY US Treasury Bonds shows that they are worrying about US unpredictability. For the same reason OTHER counties are also selling US Bonds.

Fake News.

Japan's peak holdings were in 2021.

Japan decreased holdings from 2004 to 2008, then 2014 to 2018, then 2021 to 2022.

Holdings are greatly impacted by Japan's liquidity requirements.