[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by biker1

Don't claim that "You keep these people poor ... ". I am not keeping anyone poor. You, of course, fail to point out that 2% make minimum wage and that people move up and down in economic classes thought their life. I started out pretty much destitute when I was young but I didn't stay there for long. Many, not all, who are stuck in the lowest economic classes are there because of bad decisions they made. Do you want to avoid being poor? Finish high school, get a job, and don't have children before you are married. Marriage does wonders for your financial prospects.

Very true. Most of the successful people in our country did not start off that way. They went to school graduated made good financial decisions and worked hard.

Expect to have a minimum wage job all your life and you are well along the way to meet your expectations

[SacDQ]

We’re witnessing a Paradigm shift in our life’s and a new normal will emerge at the end. If a corporation can cut its footprint by having its employees work from home and increase profits. Other than Defense manufacturing and final assembly of autos what do we still make in the USA?
The talking heads in Washington state the pandemic require that we bring back all medical manufacturers RIGHT like that’s going to happen. The big pharmaceutical combined have been screwing us for years manufacturing drugs every where but in the USA yet charging us enormous prices.
Very interesting times ahead.

[oldtimes]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Very true. Most of the successful people in our country did not start off that way. They went to school graduated made good financial decisions and worked hard.

Expect to have a minimum wage job all your life and you are well along the way to meet your expectations

The problem is never that simple. There are many college grads who are making minimum wage right now. Due to the pandemic there are also far more people with no income at all right now through no fault of their own. However, raising the minimum wage is also going to raise prices and eliminate jobs and cause more businesses to fail. It is a very complex problem. Also paying someone 15.00 an hour in NYC is a lot different than paying someone 15.00 an hour in Mississippi. I am not in favor of one size fits all solutions.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by oldtimes

The problem is never that simple. There are many college grads who are making minimum wage right now. Due to the pandemic there are also far more people with no income at all right now through no fault of their own. However, raising the minimum wage is also going to raise prices and eliminate jobs and cause more businesses to fail. It is a very complex problem. Also paying someone 15.00 an hour in NYC is a lot different than paying someone 15.00 an hour in Mississippi. I am not in favor of one size fits all solutions.

Very little in life is simple.

Why get a degree in something (and amass a huge debt) if it will be difficult to find a job paying a good salary?

Raising the minimum wage sounds nice but go into a grocery lately? Look at all the automated cashier stations. Raise the minimum wage and less cashiers.

Trick is to find something that will be in demand and stay in demand which typically will pay a better salary.

[Dahabs]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Although a valid opinion, the supply chains coming from around the world might have different or less solvable issues that will constrain the US re-stocking. The urban exodus with the work from home movement may require a different distribution system. Houses in suburbia are selling fast. A close friends daughter mid 20's came out of a Friday meeting where it was determined that everyone will WFH for now, maybe office visit 1-2 a quarter, and she bought a house the next Monday 3 hours from the city, prior to the house being on the market, from the builder at list price, with a one hour time limit on the offer, with a real estate agent who had an idea for that type of person's requirements.

Another example, company's discussing return to office plans are seeing huge elevator restrictions, so high rise offices will be out of favor for a while. Both mine and coachk's have these restrictions.

So retail supply and distribution systems will be changed, and that won't be without pain of deflation in real estate in some areas and abrupt inflation in another, and debt repayment issues, will hopefully be avoided.

Workforce turnover with age discrimination will be another, where older white collar workers who aren't ready or able to retire early will be forced to accept lower wages, which will cause a drag on disposable income sales, and older toy sales, ie deflation.

So, the stock market is not the economy, WFH relocation may cause more unintended consequences than are currently expected. Debt issues have been deferred, not solved, and so while the news is good, its just for today, as the future is uncertain, with some days more than others.

So glad that the TV house is fully WFH secure with high speed internet available with hard wired outlets in every room for a secure environment. Multiple monitor space available at the desks. So good we are driving down to WFH in TV for the rest of june!

Very well said. Been thinking along similar lines. Did not understand the rationale (or believe it) with the stock market's rapid rise. I believe we are a long way from normal.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

maybe yes, maybe no, but the market is a function of global liquidity and corporate expectations. Liquidity, or money in the system has exploded recently. So if the excess liquidity goes into the high quality stocks, in general, that means that the active money goes into the higher weighted components of the SP500. Remember, passive or index funds, in which many have their retirement accounts invested, are price insensitive buyers. Active management are price sensitive buyers and sellers and determine the price of individual equities. So how is an active manager to beat the index, if that is his benchmark? by buying 80% index fund, and the last 20% his favorites to beat the return and the large cap weighted stawks. This is called closet indexing or a tilted portfolio to beat an index return.

So with most of the money going into the indexes and large cap weighted stocks as the strongest to survive the economic recession, the indexes appear to be "going crazy" Today is a correction but also the election is coming up and there looms a constitutional crises of a legal happy president trying to cause chaos to nullify the election. (my prediction of the future, and the future hasn't finished being written on this election, so save your typing if you are going to tell me i am wrong.) which may increase volatility and selling due to the uncertainty as the election nears. in bull times, buy the rumor and sell the news. IN bear market times, sell the rumor and by the outcome.

However, the work from home will be temporary in mass, so lets not extract long term outcomes from a short term influence. all pandemics have an end, and this one will as well. The issue is always how fast and at what damage. the worst is past for the virus, but there never has been herd immunity for a corona virus, nor a reliable vaccine, so expect the return to the office to be slow over time with some set backs of course. Also from being in corporate discussions about back to work, people adapt, and are creative so expect new solutions which one hasn't thought of before to surface to add to productivity.

And as always the future is uncertain, sometime more uncertain than at other times.

sportsguy

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

maybe yes, maybe no, but the market is a function of global liquidity and corporate expectations. Liquidity, or money in the system has exploded recently. So if the excess liquidity goes into the high quality stocks, in general, that means that the active money goes into the higher weighted components of the SP500. Remember, passive or index funds, in which many have their retirement accounts invested, are price insensitive buyers. Active management are price sensitive buyers and sellers and determine the price of individual equities. So how is an active manager to beat the index, if that is his benchmark? by buying 80% index fund, and the last 20% his favorites to beat the return and the large cap weighted stawks. This is called closet indexing or a tilted portfolio to beat an index return.

So with most of the money going into the indexes and large cap weighted stocks as the strongest to survive the economic recession, the indexes appear to be "going crazy" Today is a correction but also the election is coming up and there looms a constitutional crises of a legal happy president trying to cause chaos to nullify the election. (my prediction of the future, and the future hasn't finished being written on this election, so save your typing if you are going to tell me i am wrong.) which may increase volatility and selling due to the uncertainty as the election nears. in bull times, buy the rumor and sell the news. IN bear market times, sell the rumor and by the outcome.

However, the work from home will be temporary in mass, so lets not extract long term outcomes from a short term influence. all pandemics have an end, and this one will as well. The issue is always how fast and at what damage. the worst is past for the virus, but there never has been herd immunity for a corona virus, nor a reliable vaccine, so expect the return to the office to be slow over time with some set backs of course. Also from being in corporate discussions about back to work, people adapt, and are creative so expect new solutions which one hasn't thought of before to surface to add to productivity.

And as always the future is uncertain, sometime more uncertain than at other times.

sportsguy

Interesting analysis, who knows what the changes due to the virus will ultimately bring but think work from home will be around for quite awhile bringing some interesting changes to the economy and our lives.

[Chi-Town]

With the downturn today there is talk of a Minsky moment. That would not be good.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Chi-Town

With the downturn today there is talk of a Minsky moment. That would not be good.

Chi, you made me look that up. I just read a rather lengthy article about it. Such is my exciting 2020 life — in my house — reading Investopedia articles.

The old bull has been running way too long. Besides, this feels like a frenzy. Unsustainable.

It’s been a house of cards for a couple of years, propped up by trillions of dollars generated by those corporate tax cuts being used by companies to buy back their own stock.

There is a quote that I use sometimes. (I probably have already used it in this thread. I know have used it in other threads. But it bears repeating.) “Unrestrained greed is not only bad morals, it’s bad economics.”

Cassandra Boomer

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by oldtimes

The problem is never that simple. There are many college grads who are making minimum wage right now. Due to the pandemic there are also far more people with no income at all right now through no fault of their own. However, raising the minimum wage is also going to raise prices and eliminate jobs and cause more businesses to fail. It is a very complex problem. Also paying someone 15.00 an hour in NYC is a lot different than paying someone 15.00 an hour in Mississippi. I am not in favor of one size fits all solutions.

I agree to some extent. However, raising minimum wage has not increased prices in states that have already done so. So you can just check that off your list of potential problems.

However, I agree that paying someone $15 in NYC is different than the same in Mississippi. I feel FEDERAL minimum wage needs to be increased - $7.25 isn't a reasonable minimum wage in any state or municipality in the country. Notice I'm not even saying liveable - I'm saying reasonable.

I feel that $10 minimum wage nationwide is reasonable - and states would be free as they already are, to make it higher if they wish. Minimum wage was created to provide a LIVEABLE wage for women and young workers, who - up until that point, were working in sweatshops and unable to pay the minimum bills (rent, food, clothing, heat and water). There was no federally established minimum wage until the 1930's, when Roosevelt implemented the New Deal.

Minimum wage was $3.80 in 1990, 30 years ago. Minimum wage was set to $7.25 in 2009 - 11 years ago. And there are a lot of exceptions to that minimum, including agriculture workers, workers who have "special needs" (the mentally disabled) and people who work for tips. If you're under 20 years old, federal law says you only have to be paid $4.25/hour for the first 3 months of employment. After that they have to pay you at least $7.25/hour.

It's time for Minimum Wage to start catching up with the cost of living in the USA. It should catch up to the -lowest- cost of living. In other words - find out where it's cheapest to live. And raise the Federal minimum wage to accommodate that. Then let the states deal with their own minimums above that amount.

[Dana1963]

Jobs were not added or increased employees previously let go were recalled. Still approximately 25 million yet to be recalled

[oldtimes]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

I agree to some extent. However, raising minimum wage has not increased prices in states that have already done so. So you can just check that off your list of potential problems.

However, I agree that paying someone $15 in NYC is different than the same in Mississippi. I feel FEDERAL minimum wage needs to be increased - $7.25 isn't a reasonable minimum wage in any state or municipality in the country. Notice I'm not even saying liveable - I'm saying reasonable.

I feel that $10 minimum wage nationwide is reasonable - and states would be free as they already are, to make it higher if they wish. Minimum wage was created to provide a LIVEABLE wage for women and young workers, who - up until that point, were working in sweatshops and unable to pay the minimum bills (rent, food, clothing, heat and water). There was no federally established minimum wage until the 1930's, when Roosevelt implemented the New Deal.

Minimum wage was $3.80 in 1990, 30 years ago. Minimum wage was set to $7.25 in 2009 - 11 years ago. And there are a lot of exceptions to that minimum, including agriculture workers, workers who have "special needs" (the mentally disabled) and people who work for tips. If you're under 20 years old, federal law says you only have to be paid $4.25/hour for the first 3 months of employment. After that they have to pay you at least $7.25/hour.

It's time for Minimum Wage to start catching up with the cost of living in the USA. It should catch up to the -lowest- cost of living. In other words - find out where it's cheapest to live. And raise the Federal minimum wage to accommodate that. Then let the states deal with their own minimums above that amount.

I agree that 10.00 an hour would be reasonable and probably not have major negative repercussions. Then states that have higher cost of living could adjust. If only government could pass a helpful bill without expensive and needless pork attached we might get somewhere.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by oldtimes

I agree that 10.00 an hour would be reasonable and probably not have major negative repercussions. Then states that have higher cost of living could adjust. If only government could pass a helpful bill without expensive and needless pork attached we might get somewhere.

The problem with such a large increase is companies will decide jobs not worth that much and will find ways to eliminate them.

Once upon a time people got paid to pump your gas. Now more and more cashiers in fast food restaurants are going away being replaced by computer terminals.

[thesquare]

WE use IP Vanish works well and not expensive..

[Dana1963]

We were fortunate to sell at the high earlier this year reinvested and bought the lows just got out of the market again yesterday. With stock buybacks Fed buying junk paper and this past month the US had the biggest monthly trade deficit ever. We’ve agreed to sit out the market for a while, made mor than we expected this year.