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  #151  
Old 03-11-2020, 11:37 AM
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My advise would be not to get caught up in daily price movements, focus on volatility levels and longer term price trends. My expectation is for continued high levels of volatility with some up and some down days, but for the overall longer term trend to continue to be negative. When/if the Dow Jones hits 20,000 I am in at a 25% allocation. After that I will continue to add exposure each time the Dow declines another 1,500 points, if it happens. I hope my expectations are wrong, but it’s good to have a plan.
  #152  
Old 03-11-2020, 01:24 PM
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At what point does Boeing start to look attractive? lol
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  #153  
Old 03-11-2020, 02:17 PM
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Boeing looks attractive near zero. They have exhausted their first emergency draw on their line of credit and have now requested the max at $13 B or some number. When that is exhausted, bankruptcy
  #154  
Old 03-11-2020, 02:19 PM
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S & P -6%. Can't wait for that bell to ring.
  #155  
Old 03-11-2020, 02:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa View Post
When/if the Dow Jones hits 20,000 I am in at a 25% allocation.
I am back in at 50 % at SP500 2000, which is the plan, but I am short 1,000 shares of SPY until then

Good luck,

sportsguy
  #156  
Old 03-11-2020, 02:22 PM
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They are targeting the circuit breaker of 7% at the close to trap peeps (from the rate of descent at this time of day) Its a prediction, at 3:20, not a fact, but has a shelf life of 40 minutes to come true, or not. Reasoning, the White House just declared Corona virus meetings classified from now on. Which is F* ridiculous. . .
  #157  
Old 03-11-2020, 03:27 PM
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If this wakes voters to reality, then I consider it god sent.
Wow, you mean COVID-19 can be eradicated by Executive Order or legislation and we just need the right people in office to get 'er done?
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  #158  
Old 03-11-2020, 03:55 PM
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So, the S&P 500 Index just closed at 2741. One year ago, it closed at 2783. No big deal.
  #159  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:20 PM
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5 more down days like today and S&P 500 will be at fair value
  #160  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:37 PM
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Quote:
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5 more down days like today and S&P 500 will be at fair value
What is fair value ?
  #161  
Old 03-11-2020, 08:58 PM
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What is fair value ?
Fair value is the value that reflects discounted future earnings. Since no one knows what future earnings will be, or uses the same discount rate, fair value is the market consensus of these two factors. When the market can not reach a consensus of what fair value actually is, volatility exists, which is where we currently are.
  #162  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:50 PM
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Quote:
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What is fair value ?
I figure S&P500 1500 low...2000 high. The USD almost guarantees high side.

BTW - You can just dismiss those who fixate on the DJIA

Last edited by MorTech; 03-11-2020 at 09:58 PM.
  #163  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:54 PM
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"Gubbermint Leadership" is always code for stealing wealth from the bottom 90% (aka, The Basket of Deplorables) and transferring it to the upper 10% (aka, The 1%).

Bring it on!
  #164  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tophcfa View Post
Fair value is the value that reflects discounted future earnings. Since no one knows what future earnings will be, or uses the same discount rate, fair value is the market consensus of these two factors.
That is the theory, and having tried it, and watched investment bankers try to do it, and having been in corporate M&A, tried it my self with inside information, reality doesn't work so well. Damodarian who wrote a novel on valuation has never been able to make money with his DCF models and actual investments.

With the markets limit down overnight, now is a good time to just be patient and wait.

18 holes to discuss the markets?

sportsguy
  #165  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:00 PM
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Ask Yourself - What would Jesse Livermore do? LOL

(Everybody still in the speculation game should read his book.)

Last edited by MorTech; 03-11-2020 at 10:45 PM.
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