[Timothy_Thomas]

Testing may increase the total number of cases. It will not change number of deaths.

[ficoguy]

NY gets everything...and usually at the taxpayer expense
The orthodox communities in NY and NJ have a huge spread rate because there is no social distancing

[Tennisbum]

Originally Posted by TomOB

Florida's testing is woefully inadequate compared to NY. NY has almost as many positive tests as the total amount of testing done in FL.

Florida testing is lower due to the number of counties that have less then 10 cases and there is no real reason for the general population to get tested. Gulf County had one case and she if fine now. They test 200 people who had the "regular" flu!

[cindyfeh]

Our death rate per capita could be much higher. Many people claim Florida residency, but are not here right now. They are seasonal. I wonder what the actual death rate is . . .

[lindaelane]

Please...stop saying "Florida tested less than NY so the analysis is invalid".

You can ignore the "number of cases" column. This number is not comparable for any two states or countries due to differences in testing.

Pay attention to the "deaths" column. It is more valid for comparisons between states.

Its still not perfect, for instance, NY City added a large number of people "presumed to have died of Covid" and I'm not sure Florida has done that. But if this number was subtracted from NY's total, Florida would still have far fewer deaths. The difference in deaths is so great, its hard to attribute it to differential reporting.

So something is going on to make NY City different than Florida...that's obvious (public transport, international flights) but also NY State. Can it be fully accounted for by such things commuters to the NY suburbs (e.g. Westchester County) with subsequent travel by them and those they infect into the rest of the state? We don't know.

It's preliminary, but some scientists believe public transportation is the most common place in which the virus is spread. We do not have that here. It could make a substantial difference in rates of infection.

[diamond2005]

Then go to NY, please! Delta is ready, when you are.....

[ficoguy]

Many deaths in NY listed previously as "unknown cause" going back to February have been reclassified to CV19 deaths - Cuomo is pumping up the numbers, playing the game - and its working - the media is gah gah over his antics. Funny how his methods are viewed by the media as LEADERSHIP but when Trump does the same think he is a DICTATOR.

[caljeff]

Originally Posted by Velvet

Testing rate doesn’t influence death rate. Dead is dead.

I generally agree. However; increased testing would increase the denominator enumerating this percentage: deaths/total cases.

[mikeritz53]

Originally Posted by Rsenholzi

Really? I think it’s because we can’t get tested like they are doing in NY. Testing here in the Villages was open for about 10 days and then they closed for lack of testing supplies. Most tested were for research not because people thought they had it. Most of those were turned away. I believe only about 900 were test in an area with 160,000 homes. Then they finally opened again for 2 days only? I believe our numbers are low not because people are wiser here but because of lack of testing.

Where are your numbers from. There are approx. 70,000 homes and total Pop. in The Villages at 125,000+ of which there are many not here FT. The testing at the Polo fields did around 2,500+ and it was not a test, close to 2,000 were symptom related.

[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by Bobcuse

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.

Thank you, retired numbers guy. Here is a related task for you. Could you now figure out similar numbers for Tri-County people who live IN The Villages and Tri-County people who do NOT live in The Villages? I think there is enough information available online now that you can figure that out.

My sense is that you will find that the number of confirmed cases, hospitalized, and dead of those who live IN The Villages is much lower per thousand than those who live in the Tri-County area but on the outside. This is probably a function of relative ages, ability to socially distance, number of people per household, socio-economic status, willingness to follow rules, education level, type of employment or unemployment, necessary (or unnecessary) contact with others, and more. I suspect that Villagers are MUCH safer than non-villagers, for a combination of these reasons. I hope you will figure out the numbers for us.

[davem4616]

the OP is trying to compare apples and oranges

there are way too many differences between the state of NY and the state of FL to draw any real conclusions from this

[dougjb]

Originally Posted by Bobcuse

My daughter is a Nurse Practicioner who oversees healthcare for the elderly in nursing homes in NY. She believes that the Florida numbers of Covid-19 cases are significantly lower than New York's (even after excluding NYC) because the more elderly population in Florida is wiser and more responsible than the younger generation who don't practice the mitigation guidelines for whatever reasons. ( 75% of Florida cases are under age 65). Interesting perspective. Everyone has an opinion but the facts are as follows as of April 20:

Florida Population: 21,646,155 Cases: 27,058 Deaths: 823


New York Population: 19,491,339. Cases: 242,786. Deaths: 13,869


Knowing NYC is the big hotspot, I isolated these numbers. Here are the results:


NYC Population: 8,770,000 Cases: 136,806 Deaths: 10,344

Non-NYC Population: 10,721,339. Cases: 105,980 Deaths: 3.525


I didn't remove the Florida hotspots Miami, Ft Lauderdale, etc. but as you can see the Florida cases are significantly lower than NY with or without NYC. Florida's number would be 10 times higher with NY's ratio of cases per population. Now I can see why reopening should be significantly different state by state.

This analysis shows what happens when you take a retired numbers guy and put him in lockdown with two females in Florida for 6 weeks.

What a fine analysis! I am sure no one ever travels between Florida and New York and vice versa. So, I guess you are suggesting opening up those low incidence areas so they can catch up to the high incidence areas. Makes total sense to me! HUH?

[haysus7]

The population in NYC is densely populated and public transportation made the virus spread faster

[RonGee]

Originally Posted by gbs317

Why is that a ridiculous analysis?

What do your numbers show?

[mwpoet]

We are not New York because they are denser, they have a big international airport bringing in people around the world and more minorities who are hit harder.