[MX rider]

Originally Posted by Normal

If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.

I agree with Laker14. Nobody really knows what the home market will do, same as the stock market. Unless you're flipping, who cares?

If you're newly retired and want a home, buy it. You could spend the rest of your life waiting for the " right time".
Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement. One of my best friends just lost his 45 year old daughter to cancer. Time isn't on our side.

Whats the point of waiting for anything at this point in our lives? Live for today. Worrying too much about the future at this point is fools gold, imo.

Luckily we bought our home 2 years ago and we just retired last fall. But when we did buy, we were less concerned with it being the "right time" and more concerned about finding the right home here in TV.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community. All the things we can't control will take care of themselves.

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by MX rider

I agree with Laker14. Nobody really knows what the home market will do, same as the stock market. Unless you're flipping, who cares?

If you're newly retired and want a home, buy it. You could spend the rest of your life waiting for the " right time".
Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement. One of my best friends just lost his 45 year old daughter to cancer. Time isn't on our side.

Whats the point of waiting for anything at this point in our lives? Live for today. Worrying too much about the future at this point is fools gold, imo.

Luckily we bought our home 2 years ago and we just retired last fall. But when we did buy, we were less concerned with it being the "right time" and more concerned about finding the right home here in TV.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community. All the things we can't control will take care of themselves.

If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Or, will home prices go down to a level that brings buyers' interest? This means one can save a wad of money and enjoy a better retirement. More money in the bank makes living the dream much easier.

I get it. What I have stated are EXTREME cases. But, with hundreds of homes and lots sitting, what can the developer do? Keep building and go deeper into the red?

For those who have not bought a home, looking at other options or waiting is probably a good idea.

[Two Bills]

The real time to worry if invested in housing market, is when there are more houses than people.
Long way from that point yet.
Next year the complaints will be not enough houses for sale, and prices going crazy.
'tis the way of the beast!
SNAFU.

[MX rider]

Originally Posted by Normal

If you are looking for an exact time, you would need data in retrospect. Since we don’t have that, you need to examine the market and its tendencies. The market IS by ALL indicators still trending downward. Why buy when in essence you are losing money?

Just look at the local market here! More than 70% of homes last month were purchased BELOW ASKING. Look at The Villages new home prices, or perhaps their lot prices. View lots in Moultrie are down 40%. It’s a buyers market officially this month.

Yes, if you just want to burn money, buy. If not, it may be best to wait till the bottom hits.

Examining forces on price are the key to determining local market values: Mortgage rates, building costs, inventory, regulation, future costs including annual taxes, location and comparable comps are the tip of the iceberg. They are influenced by the more macroeconomic engines such as treasury note pricing , hourly wages, shadowed property values, local annexations and even square footage pricing on pre owned homes.

Then there is the entire demand side which is changing constantly. Inflation has made higher prices unaffordable PARTICULARLY in the Villages. The purchasing demographic are or will be forecasted to retire on a median fixed income. The number has decreased for this group significantly as indicated by employment of those once retired but now forced to work.

RETIREMENT IS THE SINGLE LARGEST FINANCIAL MOVE IN LIFE, followed by…you guessed it, BUYING a HOME.

Originally Posted by Randall55

If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Or, will home prices go down to a level that brings buyers' interest? This means one can save a wad of money and enjoy a better retirement. More money in the bank makes living the dream much easier.

I get it. What I have stated are EXTREME cases. But, with hundreds of homes and lots sitting, what can the developer do? Keep building and go deeper into the red?

For those who have not bought a home, looking at other options or waiting is probably a good idea.

I get what you're saying, and it does depend on what stage in life you're at for sure.

But you use the words "if" and "probably" a lot.
At the end of the day, the best we can do is make a decision using the best information we have at the time. The "right time" will be different for everyone.

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by Craig Vernon

I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

The absolute number of used homes on the market compared to previous years is not an apples to apples comparison. Each year the number of used homes increments by the number of new homes sold the previous year. A better comparison would be the percentage of used homes on the market year to year.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by MX rider

Tomorrow isn't guaranteed, and I've known too many people who never even made it to retirement.

We could care less what our house is worth. We're too busy having fun, staying active and enjoying life here. Which is exactly how we planned to spend our retirement.

We're not well off, but financially we're fine. So we'll just continue on living the dream in this great community.

I concur for your situation. I certainly feel for your friends’ loss. But every situation is complicated and different.

What the OP and all potential buyers should know is it isn’t a cheap free windfall blissful move to just pick up and live here. Taxes on property can be fairly high. The cost of living in Florida rivals more than half the states in the US (ranked 21). Insurance and utilities are higher than most. The old fallacy of (No income tax) is certainly countered by many other expenses.

For you and I it is affordable, but some I know have to work just to stay here. They moved into the Villages retired, but now work to make ends meet. Magical fairy dust didn’t fall from the sky and bless them with gold paved roads. You can thank the economy for that.

We should all want everyone happy and satisfied when they move here just like we are. The reality is many can’t afford it and this is no financial promised land for those contemplating a financial decision without money to burn. If someone buys that can’t afford it later on, it weighs on all of us.

I hope the best for those still dreaming and hope their lives are filled with happiness wherever they move. Risking finances shouldn’t be anyone’s thought. If it is, please don’t buy here.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Aces4

It appears your strategy works well for you but not everyone has unlimited funds so there are many areas in The Villages that work well for people within a budget.

You missed the point of the post. Comparing prices, and area may or may not be your determining factor. One should look for a home and area that will work for them. When someone says don’t buy in that village is their opinion, and may be the right choice for you.

Post was about we purchased in two areas that everyone said was worst financial decision, because of the area and never recoup original investment. Just pointing out not only did homes sell quickly but substantial profits involved.

Had nothing to do with unlimited funds, but smart financial decisions

[MX rider]

Originally Posted by Normal

I concur for your situation. I certainly feel for your friends’ loss. But every situation is complicated and different.

What the OP and all potential buyers should know is it isn’t a cheap free windfall blissful move to just pick up and live here. Taxes on property can be fairly high. The cost of living in Florida rivals more than half the states in the US (ranked 21). Insurance and utilities are higher than most. The old fallacy of (No income tax) is certainly countered by many other expenses.

For you and I it is affordable, but some I know have to work just to stay here. They moved into the Villages retired, but now work to make ends meet. Magical fairy dust didn’t fall from the sky and bless them with gold paved roads. You can thank the economy for that.

We should all want everyone happy and satisfied when they move here just like we are. The reality is many can’t afford it and this is no financial promised land for those contemplating a financial decision without money to burn. If someone buys that can’t afford it later on, it weighs on all of us.

I hope the best for those still dreaming and hope their lives are filled with happiness wherever they move. Risking finances shouldn’t be anyone’s thought. If it is, please don’t buy here.

I do agree it's tough for some. But like anywhere, you live where you can afford. And not everyone can afford the Villages. That's just reality, not just here.
People who can't, can sell and explore many other options in Florida that are more affordable.

We planned for this and in reality think it was a great move for us. For what we pay to live here and everything we get its a great deal.

You're right on some things. We find utilites to be cheaper here than Indiana. Property tax is higher. Homeowners insurance about 20% higher. Groceries and eating out about the same.

Gas prices most of the time are less but never higher.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Randall55

Possibly. But new frame homes are also sitting. I received an updated list of new homes that have reduced prices. The count is now 200+. About a month ago, 75 new construction homes had a discounted price.

I agree with the posters on this thread. It is not a good to buy. It is anyone's guess what will happen in the next few months.

But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by asianthree

But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?

Yes. I am a contractor/flipper. We sold and left the southern section because it did not fit our needs. At this time, we are currently renting a home in the Northern section of the Villages. We are looking to buy a preowned home that I will remodel to suit us. This will be our forever home. We experimented and enjoyed our adventures but it is time to settle down.

This is the first time in 18 yrs of living here that we are skeptical about the Villages' real estate. Both of us see many red flags that were not present in years past. We are trying our best to avoid pitfalls. As several posters stated, everyone should look at their own situation and do what is best for them.

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by asianthree

But are your thoughts about not a good time to buy because you are a contractor and flip houses?
You have bought and sold, and are now in a rental and isn’t your spouse in real estate?

So are views of not a good time to buy, for potential new buyers or as an investment buyer?

That explains a lot………………

[Craig Vernon]

Thanks again for all the constructive thoughts and insight. See you all in February.

[cjrjck]

As the number of homes in The Villages increases, the number of listings will likely increase also. The sign of a healthy housing market is whether the number of sales keeps pace with the listings.

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by Randall55

If you already have a home, I agree. If you have not retired and are still looking, it is a different story. The developer cannot keep building if his inventory is not moving. Does this mean he will sell some of his land to other builders? If so, what will be built? Or, will he just slow the pace? If he chooses this route, commercial will suffer. You can't open a store, restaurant, or medical facility if there are not enough customers. Will construction workers be forced to leave the area? This will harm the community, as well.

Another post that the Developer is not going to survive.
First, the developer bought most of the land when rates were at 2 or 3%.
Second, construction efficiently have led to lower construction costs (i.e. the pre fab concrete walls).
Third, if the developer didn’t model a threshold for an increase in interest rates, I would be shocked.
The developer controls the inventory of new homes, if they want more inventory, they put more on market.
Much of the pre owned inventory are flippers, who are out of the 1 year window, and waited til interest rates dropped a bit.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Papa_lecki

Another post that the Developer is not going to survive.
First, the developer bought most of the land when rates were at 2 or 3%.

What poster ever said the Developer will never survive?

First, this OP is posting about a surplus of inventory, which there is
Second, the Developer makes the most revenue with Citizens First and sales transactions (loss or gain).
Third, you suggest any of the land was bought at a certain interest rate?

Clueless comes to mind