[Garywt]

Originally Posted by Robbb

The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

Drove from Soulliere to Lake Dedham a while back to look at open house didn’t seem to far.

[Rosethorn]

Originally Posted by bopat

Population of The Villages is over 150,000 now.

Thank you for posting this. I figured it had passed the 130,000 that is so often quoted!

May I ask your source (so that I can quote it to others)?

(Former newspaper reporter here!)

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by LoriAnn

None of this is new. I've purchased a home when The Villages was in a downturn and sold in an up-market twice. There was a time that nearly all new builds were discounted. One thing is for sure, the developer never suffered even in a down market. They watch for the smallest sign of sales decreasing and they take action to boost sales. They have discounted prices, added incentives and focused on building less expensive homes to meet the market in the past. They used to include all appliances including washer and dryer and had furniture packages. They took things away one at a time to lower prices to meet the market demand. The last 2 market downturns developed the same way. New homes sales decreased, and The Villages started lowering prices to keep their quota up. Eventually, you could buy a new home for the same price or just a little more than a new home. Resales started to suffer because people bought new homes instead and the market became flooded with resales. Then the prices of resales stated to plummet. It started with people who had to sell and investors who couldn't cover their expenses. The entire resale market was eventually affected. I've seen it happen two times and it will happen again. It recovered both times and it will cycle again. I'm always amused when people think The Villages is immune to market downturns. It's clear they haven't been around very long.

Yes, that is what happened in past years. This time, there are several new factors that are coming into play. Interest rates are much higher, prices of homes have soared, and amenities are lacking. Everywhere I go, it is crowded.

After the Covid lockdown, we had a large influx of younger residents. Will this continue or have they been forced back to their home offices?

This is the first time I have seen the developer working on 3 town centers simultaneously: East Port, Middleton, and the revitalization of Spanish Springs. This makes me wonder how all the store fronts and office space are going to get filled. It took years for Brownwood to reach full merchant capacity.

Outside building is booming. Apartments, town homes, homes, you name it! They are popping up everywhere. It won't be long before a 55+ community offering something unique will come along.

The prison is on federal land. Now that a city is being built, will they keep the prison? Or, will they build something different? It is their land. They can do as they please.

The times are a changing.....

[Normal]

“Flat Fee” sales are helping many save thousands when selling their homes. I already see several moves right here in the Villages as several ask why get a realtor when I’m selling.

Zero closing costs are much better and help the seller control the situation. They can charge less and move their property quickly. Realtor costs in many situations for resale here can be 40 k and up. Just think how much quicker you could sell your house using that margin for some mark down.

Use Zillow, for free or…flat fee places like Home Coin and Clever. There’s nothing wrong with you walking away with a new car instead of just blindly handing it over to a real estate seller and in most cases they do all title work and closing!

The information/internet era is here! The day will soon come when everyone will wonder why anyone used a realtor. If you have ever looked at Zillow, you have already helped the process.

The increasing use will of course bring prices down more to a reality level.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by Rosethorn

Thank you for posting this. I figured it had passed the 130,000 that is so often quoted!

May I ask your source (so that I can quote it to others)?

(Former newspaper reporter here!)

It was in the Daily Sun yesterday or the day before.

[frayedends]

Originally Posted by Robbb

The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

It’s less than a half hour cart ride. 10 minutes to Sawgrass by cart.

[Laker14]

I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Laker14

I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.

I agree with most of what you said. There are different types of buyers and different types of markets. Right now, we are in a cautionary market. I do not believe anyone can say with certainty what will happen next. Whatever happens, for better or worse, none of us will be surprised. The market can go either way. Be diligent, ask questions, and do your research. If you get a gnawing feeling that something isn't right, it probably isn't. Take your time before jumping in.

I lived on a street that had many rentals and flippers. Flippers do not go to remote areas and wait until a home becomes desirable to sell. They look for areas where they can make $$$$. This is why areas like Richmond sell out quickly. Homes close to squares bring in large, year-round, rental income. The homes are also ridiculously easy to flip for a large profit.

If you are thinking about buying your forever home near a square, be warned. You may be surrounded by rentals and neighbors who have no plans on staying. When they leave, another rental may be added to your neighborhood. AirBnB owners snatch as many homes near the squares that they can get their hands on.

[Babubhat]

Number is meaningless. No way to quantify the number of unmotivated listings fishing for a bite

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Number is meaningless. No way to quantify the number of unmotivated listings fishing for a bite

Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Normal

Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

Definitely not a buyer's market.

Seller is setting the price and really not much negotiation.

Buyer is a great marketer and gives perceived discounts.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Normal

Or discover how many are waiting to sell, but can’t in this competitive buyer’s market.

The number of days a pre-owned home has been sitting on the market is provided on every MLS listing.
The VLS does not provide this information but you can search a particular model of home to see how many are on the market and compare the prices asked. You will quickly notice the homes that are overpriced.

[GoRedSox!]

Originally Posted by Laker14

I see The Villages housing market as being several different markets.
1. You have "the flippers". They know going into it they aren't buying their "forever" home. Timing the market is paramount for these buyers. Initial purchase price, interest rates (now and over the next few years) are critically important. Proximity to what makes "The Villages Lifestyle" what it is is less important, figuring that while they get a discount for the current remoteness of the new neighborhood, that remoteness will go away in a few years and raise the desirability of the area.

2. You have the older retiree who is looking at what the area offers now. Being "10 minutes away" from Sawgrass, but on the far side of it relative to Brownwood and LSL and Championship Golf , etc matter NOW. Some folks say the resales are "overpriced". That's not true. They fetch a higher price because of a more favorable and attractive location to this particular market, who likely have more money, don't need a mortgage, and don't want to spend 5 years waiting for amenities and infrastructure to catch up.

3. You have the "soon to be retired"...less bothered by relative remoteness of the area, figuring the amenities and infrastructure will catch up by the time they arrive for retirement. They probably have a mortgage to consider.

4. "The clueless" who think "The Villages is The Villages" and haven't spent enough time here to understand the differences between the older and newer areas. This market is probably less likely to understand why resales seem "over priced". Also, more likely to complain after they have bought, about the remoteness of the squares, and Championship golf etc etc while these things are catching up.

There is a reason, or several reasons, why Richmond was such a hot sell, and Lake Denham is not. The primary reason being proximity to Brownwood and what lies north of 44, compared to being out on the "frontier". These "frontier" towns are more likely to be affected by glitches in the overall housing market because of the type of buyer they are more attractive to, i.e. "The Flipper". If The Developer suddenly announced another village with the same kind of proximity to Brownwood, or LSL as Richmond had, it would also sell hot.

I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by GoRedSox!

I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

Yeah, I hadn't even considered the effects of the higher bonds and taxes.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by GoRedSox!

I generally agree with all of this. I think one thing that is not mentioned enough about the "frontier," though, is that for folks where finances are a consideration, the homes in Newell, Lake Denham and Dabney do have higher costs. Not only are the bond amounts higher, but so is the bond interest rate. There are many average homes down there where the bond approaches $3,000 a year. Add to that Leesburg/Lake County taxes which are higher and higher mortgage interest rates, and the monthly costs may be more than typical Villages buyers have been comfortable paying. Obviously if someone is a cash buyer and a few thousand dollars a year is not a deal-breaker, this won't apply, but it certainly applies to some.

Why pay higher monthly expenses when you do not have to? No matter your income, I think that is what buyers are looking at. Five or ten years from now, you may be happy you avoided the higher bonds, taxes, and interest rates. Investment markets change dramatically. Your spouse may die or need expensive medical attention. Your income now may not be the same years down the road. A few hundred dollars per month may make a difference.

I know a widowed man whose monthly expenses are small. Instead of buying a new car or home, he tips extremely well, pays for groceries when he sees a single mom in line, picks up restaurant tabs, and gives to local charities. It places a smile on his face each time. Extra monthly income does make a difference.