[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by Laker

...in this thread I am amazed that only a couple people know that the developer ALWAYS drops the price on the remaining 5-10 homes in a new village that are the "leftovers". I have seen probably a dozen new villages built and they ALWAYS drop the price on those last few homes.

Maybe most of the posters are "newbies".

While looking at new homes, we received a list of 55 homes discounted in the range of $10,000-$50,000. The realtor told us he believes there will be more.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

While looking at new homes, we received a list of 55 homes discounted in the range of $10,000-$50,000. The realtor told us he believes there will be more.

The latest FRED tells the whole story.
Market Hotness: Median Days on Market in The Villages, FL (CBSA) (MEDAONMAMSA45540) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Normal

The latest FRED tells the whole story.
Market Hotness: Median Days on Market in The Villages, FL (CBSA) (MEDAONMAMSA45540) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

"Days on the Market" are trending down... Not very indicative of a "bust" market...

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

While looking at new homes, we received a list of 55 homes discounted in the range of $10,000-$50,000. The realtor told us he believes there will be more.

Be careful, they could be less desirable lots developer wants to just off their balance sheet.

Lots are discounted as a village closes out.

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Randall55

There are still a few homes in Newell, many in Lake Denham, Dabney is sitting empty, the Enclave has 60% of lots available, and Moultrie Creek lots are sitting. This IS NOT leftovers in a new village. FIVE areas/villages of new construction are sitting stagnant.

Very correct, Enclave will be the first premier/non premier (designers allowed, no upgrades differences for premier cabinet, floors and so on) village. When we bought in Pennacamp everyone said “What were you thinking” that the end of the earth. Well that didn’t happen.

Hopefully someone will take note that if you are building a premier home, better quality products would be a bonus. Eventually Dabney, Lake Denham and Enclave will sell, it’s just going to take awhile, since there isn’t that looming question of “No More Building in TV” rumor

Just took a cart drive down to HS, it’s going to be amazing in a few years. Might be the next way to go, but would still like to see little more progress before considering

[jimbomaybe]

Originally Posted by Normal

The latest FRED tells the whole story.
Market Hotness: Median Days on Market in The Villages, FL (CBSA) (MEDAONMAMSA45540) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

FRED is a great website, the 30 year mortgage rates are informative as well , I have been watching the domestic auto inventories , supply and demand tell you who, buyer/seller has the leverage

[jimbomaybe]

Originally Posted by asianthree

If it’s the house, and the village one wants to live in, sometimes a bond isn’t the deciding factor. We are on house#4, have never paid the bond off. So love the house first, then the area/ view, and bond doesn’t really come into play, about what will make us happy

Most certainly you are right, your last six words have meaning , it comes down to how one weighs what you would like/want as opposed to what you are willing to spend, but if the choice was between to equally attractive homes one with a bond one without ? , I know not very likely , the point where it makes a difference depends on the individual, one relationship with money

[Randall55]

Originally Posted by asianthree

Very correct, Enclave will be the first premier/non premier (designers allowed, no upgrades differences for premier cabinet, floors and so on) village. When we bought in Pennacamp everyone said “What were you thinking” that the end of the earth. Well that didn’t happen.

Hopefully someone will take note that if you are building a premier home, better quality products would be a bonus. Eventually Dabney, Lake Denham and Enclave will sell, it’s just going to take awhile, since there isn’t that looming question of “No More Building in TV” rumor

Just took a cart drive down to HS, it’s going to be amazing in a few years. Might be the next way to go, but would still like to see little more progress before considering

I am looking for a new home. Like you, I am going to continue to hold off. With a good amount of inventory sitting, there is no telling what the developer will do to get the homes sold. One thing for certain, he has to keep building, as planned, or he will lose his construction crews. If there is no work, they will find jobs elsewhere. Will this mean more stagnant inventory? Major price reductions? Or, will there be a turn around? It will be interesting to watch what happens in January, February, and March.

[DrMack]

I’ve been reading these posts, I ask myself “What Crash?” Today I looked at the villages website. There are still 3 ea new houses for sale in Newell. I thought that development was long since sold out? Lake Denham and Dabney don’t look like they are selling any houses. We are building, and I hope the developer will still build all of the lots. The vibe isn’t the same as it was a couple of months back.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Normal

The latest FRED tells the whole story.
Market Hotness: Median Days on Market in The Villages, FL (CBSA) (MEDAONMAMSA45540) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

"The latest FRED" DOES NOT "tell the whole story. It's not even close! I'll give you a hint.... check the source.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by melpetezrinski

"The latest FRED" DOES NOT "tell the whole story. It's not even close! I'll give you a hint.... check the source.

What is your analysis?
To me, what we are seeing is combination of "reversion to the norm", plus a bit of rebound from a bubble. Maybe that defines a "crash"?

TV is not totally insulated from national trends, since many buyers need to divest themselves of real estate outside of TV before they can buy inside TV. I played golf with one such individual the other day. He is already to move here, but needs to sell his northern home. It's a factor.

However, I think the effects here are moderated somewhat, because when values decline, most homeowners aren't compelled to sell due to being underwater, or having to relocate due to job conditions. Of course, some homeowners age out, or die, and those homes add to inventory, but it's nothing on the scale of what happens outside The Bubble, when a real crash occurs.

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by DrMack

I’ve been reading these posts, I ask myself “What Crash?” Today I looked at the villages website. There are still 3 ea new houses for sale in Newell. I thought that development was long since sold out? Lake Denham and Dabney don’t look like they are selling any houses. We are building, and I hope the developer will still build all of the lots. The vibe isn’t the same as it was a couple of months back.

I am not certain the OP stating the housing is crashing is the correct wording. Slump, slow, or stagnant seems more appropriate. If this continues throughout the winter, the Developer will most likely reduce the building of spec homes. This way, he can keep home prices up. Less homes, more demand! This will place him back in the driver's seat. At this moment, the large inventory is placing buyers in control.

A crash could occur if preowned homes saw a significant price reduction, as well. Right now, this does not seem to be the case. Will it happen? I guess we have to watch and wait.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Laker14

What is your analysis?
To me, what we are seeing is combination of "reversion to the norm", plus a bit of rebound from a bubble. Maybe that defines a "crash"?

TV is not totally insulated from national trends, since many buyers need to divest themselves of real estate outside of TV before they can buy inside TV. I played golf with one such individual the other day. He is already to move here, but needs to sell his northern home. It's a factor.

However, I think the effects here are moderated somewhat, because when values decline, most homeowners aren't compelled to sell due to being underwater, or having to relocate due to job conditions. Of course, some homeowners age out, or die, and those homes add to inventory, but it's nothing on the scale of what happens outside The Bubble, when a real crash occurs.

I wasn't analyzing anything, just trying to illustrate the poor conclusion as a result of insufficient data. Any graph that tries to paint the housing market picture in TV MUST include the majority of the data not just the MLS. However, since you asked, we are obviously in a softening market. It won't be a crash and prices won't decline by more than another 5-10% IMO.

[DeweyBeach]

Buyers have more time to kick tires these days however the longer they wait, the wave of retirees behind them begin to creep up on their heels.

Remember, The Villages is a landing pad with a wide funnel spilling retirees into it. I predict, as those tire kickers stack up, it's going to create another buying frenzy.

It isn't like when we were younger, when market conditions got bad, we'd put off moving for a few years. Retirees don't have "years" to postpone, we're literally on-the-clock.

[HandyGrandpap]

Originally Posted by Normal

The latest FRED tells the whole story.
Market Hotness: Median Days on Market in The Villages, FL (CBSA) (MEDAONMAMSA45540) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Interesting web site, FRED, thanks for sharing !!!