[ColdNoMore]

While I will be staying, I'm certainly not going to look down my nose at those who choose to get out...because they may turn out to have been the smart ones.

While I wouldn't be surprised with heavy rainfall and even winds that could reach 70+ mph, we could also very easily lose electricity for days...so that's the primary issue that I'm planning on and preparing for.

[CowBubba]

Keep in mind, if you have a gas grill, you can purify water and cook food. I also have a pot for low country boil, so I am ready for anything.

[Chatbrat]

Unless you've been in Fl without a/c get ready- its akin to living on an old diesel submarine in extreme heat and not being able to shower until you returned to port or encountered a squall and getting a free shower from mother nature--honestly I don't think most people here ar ready for that degree of uncomforted

But I think we might have really dodged the bullet

[Aloha1]

First, thanks to our resident expert for his dedication to bringing us the latest data in a form all can understand. I noticed several of Tuccillo's posts were made at 2AM in the morning! I was scheduled to fly back Sunday but my flight is cancelled. SO, we'll have to wait and see. Prayers for all who are hunkering down.

Had a thought about the neighborhood pools in the event of a several day power failure. Wouldn't be good for more than a day or two but a dip in a local pool would help cool off everyone and make you feel cleaner.

[Putt4Dough]

Originally Posted by Chatbrat

Unless you've been in Fl without a/c get ready- its akin to living on an old diesel submarine in extreme heat and not being able to shower until you returned to port or encountered a squall and getting a free shower from mother nature--honestly I don't think most people here ar ready for that degree of uncomforted

But I think we might have really dodged the bullet

Really? Why?

Comparison of Andrew and Irma

[Putt4Dough]

NHC finally gets to the party and get close to ECMWF wind predictions

THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 56(81) 1(82)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 1(54)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) X(31)

MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 32(39) 53(92) 3(95) X(95)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 64(70) 7(77) X(77)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 7(53) X(53)

[Ragman]

New NHC 5:00 PM advisory shows Irma's eye 35 miles east of the Villages. Probability of hurricane force winds in TV went from 7% to 31%.

Wind Category 4 or upper end Category 3.

Even if the track moves farther west, we would still be in the right front (bad) quadrant.

I lived right on the coast for 20 years in the Florida panhandle and saw my share of bad storms, but never thought I would see a storm as scary as this in The Villages.

[tuccillo]

The 5PM NHC forecast discussion and track forecast have moved things west. This is consistent with the ECMWF 12Z cycle. Here is the latest NHC storm track:

HURRICANE IRMA

I recommend that you follow the latest forecast from the NHC via the Weather Channel or network TV. There is likely to be some fine tuning of the forecast track but it is looking likely that the track will be up the east coast with some time over land.

[Moderator]

Please keep your posts on topic of the current weather system.

A number of posts were removed where some members were questioning others' facts and opinions.

You can disagree on the science but do it respectfully.

This is too important a topic to get hung up on personalities.

Thanks for your cooperation.

[tuccillo]

The 5 PM NHC forecast track is east of The Villages so we are on the "good" side of the track. There is still a lot of time before the track can be nailed down.

Originally Posted by Ragman

New NHC 5:00 PM advisory shows Irma's eye 35 miles east of the Villages. Probability of hurricane force winds in TV went from 7% to 31%.

Wind Category 4 or upper end Category 3.

Even if the track moves farther west, we would still be in the right front (bad) quadrant.

I lived right on the coast for 20 years in the Florida panhandle and saw my share of bad storms, but never thought I would see a storm as scary as this in The Villages.

[Putt4Dough]

Comparison in size of Andrew(left) and Irma, make your own judgement.

[affald]

Thinking of chilling down the house to 70 degrees or as low as I can get it before impact so the house will at least stay cool for a while if power goes out. Thoughts?

[NotGolfer]

The storm has moved a bit to the west and they're saying it will go up the center of the state. The governor is speaking as I type (6:18pm) I watch Channel 6. Praying for the best and preparing for the worst!!

[jtdraig]

Thank you, Mr/Ms. Moderator! Much appreciated...

[dewilson58]

The Weather Channel just updated their maps and indicated The Villages with 4 inches of rain thru Monday.

Orlando up to 8 inches.

Still encouraged.

Thanks for all your updates Tucc.