[twoplanekid]

Did anyone see the new European track of Erma on the news today at 6 P.M. that takes it directly over the Villages? We may experience the eye of the storm.

[tuccillo]

The official forecast from the NHC has the track east of us. It is still 3 days out - lots of things can change.

Originally Posted by twoplanekid

Did anyone see the new European track of Erma on the news today at 6 P.M. that takes it directly over the Villages? We may experience the eye of the storm.

[tuccillo]

The 18Z (the latest cycle) NWS spectral model's precipitation forecast shows more like 5-10 inches with the track shift to the west. It is still 3 days out - keep following the latest results on the Weather Channel. With the latest westward movement of the track, I think wind is more of a concern for us in The Villages. I start to worry about losing roofing shingles. The numerical model guidance has really been a roller coaster over the last several day - up the middle of the FL, landfall over southwest FL, up the east coast, and now up the east half of FL. Saturday afternoon will be the time when the track is nailed down once it makes the turn to the north. I believe the official track is east of the latest ECMWF track (12Z cycle).

The 18Z NWS spectral model shows Irma over land for the southern portion of the east coast of FL and then moving over the coastal region of north eastern FL before making landfall again in SE GA. This is consistent with the 12Z cycle of the HWRF code. A 50-100 mile variance in the track actually make a big difference in how we are impacted. Stay tuned.

Originally Posted by dewilson58

The Weather Channel just updated their maps and indicated The Villages with 4 inches of rain thru Monday.

Orlando up to 8 inches.

Still encouraged.

Thanks for all your updates Tucc.

[mopper]

Like many others I value Tucc opinions on this subject

[tuccillo]

Thanks so much. I really recommend watching the Weather Channel for the latest updates as we move into the final stages of this thing. We are still a couple of days out and the track and intensity can change but a track over land is starting to look more likely. Saturday afternoon is important for the move to the north.

Originally Posted by mopper

Like many others I value Tucc opinions on this subject

[jtdraig]

Add my name to those who are very grateful for your updates. Thank you!!!!!!

[patfla06]

If someone can explain to me the " logic" on the Weather Channel tonight ---- they show Irma covering the entire state of
Florida with winds by us (when it gets to us) at around 130 mph.

Then in the right corner they say:
When it comes into Orlando the wind gusts will be
75+ mph, with 8" of rain.

How does 130 equal 75+???

[dewilson58]

Thanks Tucc

[tuccillo]

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

Originally Posted by patfla06

If someone can explain to me the " logic" on the Weather Channel tonight ---- they show Irma covering the entire state of
Florida with winds by us (when it gets to us) at around 130 mph.

Then in the right corner they say:
When it comes into Orlando the wind gusts will be
75+ mph, with 8" of rain.

How does 130 equal 75+???

[patfla06]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

Thanks!

[maryanna630]

Thanks, Tuc for being the voice of reason.

[Ragman]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

I didn't see this report on the Weather Channel but I can make a guess. The max winds near the eye wall might be expected to be 130 mph but away from the eye wall the winds will be less. The official track is east of us.

I agree with what you are saying, but the NHC track is right over Orlando, so it does seem contradictory information.

[Soxman]

We are really nervous with the track going right over us. Our windows are not built for that strength of wind. I wish someone would address inland situations on television.

[Blessed2BNTV]

Now I'm getting concerned, real concerned.

Tuccillo, are you staying in The Villages?

[Happinow]

I'm very worried...going to get the tiny laundry room set up tomorrow for us to stay in for the dangerous part of the storm. We will attempt to put a small air mattress down to sleep on the floor. Need to be away from the windows. We feel this will be the safest place for us.