[Cranford61]

Originally Posted by geofitz13

I have been watching new home prices in the southern villages for some time. Ever since "connectivity" became a reality, a lot of those prices have skyrocketed. Not just a couple thousand dollars, but tens of thousands. Small patio villas under 1000 square feet were in the 160-170,000 range. There are, as of today, 25 under 200,000 and many more above that. "Regular" patio villas, over 1100 square feet, go for $225,000 and up. Cottages, verandas and designers are going for 20-30,000 more than just a few weeks ago. This has nothing to do with impact fees, it's strictly a result of connectivity. I worry about the affordability of housing here going forward. It is, of course, good news for those of us who already own.

The homes in the Historical area are still reasonable.

[OhioBuckeye]

Home prices have sky rocketed since interest rates are 2 & 3%. So house prices are really up. People that sell their homes go fast because houses are in big demand. Here in Texas they sell within 3 weeks my granddaughter in Ohio sold their home in a week. So if you want to buy a home in TV, buy quick!

[stebooo]

Please explain connectivity ad it relates to this situation.

[SusanStCatherine]

We put a deposit down on a St. Catherine lot in November. We started our design in February and the price increased by $20k. I believe once design starts the price is locked unless you want a redesign. Material cost was given as reason for price increases.

[cj1040]

We have been in our custom house on a pond with a pool for a month. We went to an open house farther down our street priced higher than our house just to compare. It had neither a pool or a pond and 3 BR compared to our 4 BR. We mentioned this to the realtor and he said there have been 2 large price increases in lumber and other building materials just recently....so, it appears that we have already made back our investment in only a month!!!

[Elkiehound]

Originally Posted by NoMo50

A new home on our street, South of SR44, recently sold. The new buyers were told TV is now running 60 day closings, as opposed to 30. This was a result of so many homes being sold, and everyone in the closing process chain being backed up. Yes...the cost of construction materials has an impact on pricing, and so does hyper demand.

60 days is still short. Over at Latitude Hilton Head or Daytona it’s 14 months!

[Keninches]

Check your tax assessment, it’s already gone up.

[Stu from NYC]

Wonder if the builders protect themselves with long term contracts for big ticket items like lumber or concrete?

[Villages Kahuna]

I was talking with a guy from the commercial pool maintenance firm which services most of the Rec center and country club pools (he has 107 that he services each week).

He said that people who are trying to get a pool built at their homes are having to wait 3-4 months just to get a proposal from one of the “good” pool construction firms. Then he said that what is being quoted for a simple, standard 14 by 30 pool is between $65-70,000. And he said that’s for a bare bones hole-in-the-ground pool with pump and filter. Doesn’t include heater, auto-filler or the birdcage over the pool. He was aghast at the price and that people were lining up to sign contracts.

I have a pool and about 6-8 years ago I had T&D add a ‘spill-over’ spa and summer kitchen at one end, extending the existing birdcage by about a third. I recall the cost as being about $22k for that extensive addition. Back then you could get a new pool and birdcage built for about $30-35k as I recall.

Sounds like prices have skyrocketed. Someone’s earlier recommendation to re-read your Economics 101 textbook is good advice. When demand outstrips supply, prices will absolutely increase. That’s the factor which will cause the re-balancing of supply and demand. Forget about arguing the inequities where all the money from the raised prices will go (profits to the companies supplying whatever is in high demand). The undeniable economic fact is that when demand is much higher than supply, prices will increase.

[DaleDivine]

[CoachKandSportsguy]

There are two types of inflationary forces, supply constrained and demand increase. There are two types of inflationary measures, products and labor services. Currently the US is experiencing both forces in the product measure, and much less in the labor or services. in the last 40 years, there has been a large reduction and low persistence in the product measure, mostly due to manufacturing quality and efficiency increases. the labor measure has been subdued but steady growth until the 2008 GFC due to the deflationary effects of technology, which is really devastating and the principle source of wealth inequality, where knowledge and capital owners' wealth is increasing much faster than the labor class wealth.

So, first, trader? short as much as you can of TLT, over the next three months only. Why? Because there will be a HUGE transitory increase in the inflation measure to almost double, from here due to the pandemic basis denominator. For the three months last year Apr -> Jun, the CPI fell, now the cpi is rising at about a 2% annual rate, and the year over year calculation will show inflation at nearly 4%, but it is transitory as that dip goes away over time. So sell bonds, buy TLT puts for a hedge and buy back between May and Jun when inflation peaks out. Now, J Powell knows this is coming and calls it transitory, correct, and won't do anything special, and the markets will go crazy negative, especially in bonds.

So house prices are up due to
* materials increase for new construction
* increase demand for suburban/rural from rural due to pandemic AND remote working combination
* reduction in retirement age for knowledge workers with substantial IRA/401K wealth
* record to near record low interest rates for mortgages
* corporate relocations for lower state taxes and services, requiring employee relocations
* studies have shown the over 65 group fearing the virus have refused to relocate / downsize due to fear of the virus entering their home to be sold.

FInally, below is a forecast graph of how financial inflation is modeled and calculated for the next three months or so with a constant 2% annualized increase month over month. . . Note the huge increase in calculated inflation to nearly 4% year over year,

finance guy

[Koapaka]

Originally Posted by lkagele

Some might call that inflation but according to our government, inflation is non-existent.

DING, DING, DING......WE HAVE A WINNER!

[TimeForChange]

Originally Posted by Bilyclub

The Turnpike Enterprise and the gas pipeline company were not thrilled about the Water Lilly Bridge. I don't think TV had approval for the bridge before buying the land.

When you have the connections to get approval in your pocket you do not worry about prior approval.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

I heard from one of the agents at an open house yesterday that there are going to be 2 more price increases within the next 6 months due to the cost of material, fuel, road impact fees ( they'll tack that on before it even happens), labor, etc. Not only has lumber sky rocketed but metals too. Another thing is they cannot get washers and dryers so these higher priced villas do not have them included. One good thing is we are being told inflation is under control, NOT. The really good thing is if you already own a home it's value too has gone way up.

Not if you don't plan on selling your home, the increased accessed value just means you will be paying more for property taxes.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Not if you don't plan on selling your home, the increased accessed value just means you will be paying more for property taxes.

Not if you have the homestead exemption.