[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by dougawhite

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...

1 quarter is not a trend...

[Robnlaura]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

1 quarter is not a trend...

Nope it’s the beginning of a massive housing downturn I saw this in 2006 it just all of a sudden stopped overnight and crashed. Today who knows on the villages side they have an excellent market all they will do is drop the new construction prices and keep on selling.

[Altavia]

Interesting analysis and a point of view on the Market Update by Gary Abbot.

"It’s clear the economy and higher mortgage interest rates having an affect on home sales."

To see the report use this link -

https://youtu.be/Zmf12ZUqCD4?si=Ozu2TR2ElKkRVQpS

[dewilson58]

[Randall55]

I read preowned premiere homes are making a killing. Homes that were bought in the $700,000 range are selling for 1.5 million+. I believe Bridgeport is the area seeing the highest gains.

[Normal]

Obviously, now isn’t the time to buy. The market’s reaction to further rate hikes is important. What treasuries do is everything. Cash is king right now. Liquidity and CDs/bonds/T Bills are where it’s at. If you aren’t already in the market, it’s best to stay out so you don’t lose too much of your money.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Randall55

I read preowned premiere homes are making a killing. Homes that were bought in the $700,000 range are selling for 1.5 million+. I believe Bridgeport is the area seeing the highest gains.

Two Premier Homes near me just sold for $1 million (give or take a few thousand)...

Prices are adjusting to normal from the "Covid Craze" of the last two years (Spring 2021-Spring/Summer 2023...)

If you bought during that time, you'll have a harder time "making a killing"...

[GoRedSox!]

As I said in another thread, I know from first-hand experience that the previous Lifestyle Visit homes in Alden Bungalows sold literally like hot-cakes. I looked on The Villages website within the last couple months and there were 26 pending homes in Alden Bungalows at the same time. They sold a lot of homes there and they all went very quickly.

Yes, I think that there is going to be some impact by 8% mortgage rates, but I still believe that the biggest factor is some normalization after the pandemic. Especially for potential buyers who live in areas where selling their homes is no longer as easy as it once was.

That being said, the market here is still strong and with many cash buyers, I think it will retain its own market dynamics which are not exactly aligned with the rest of the country or even all of Florida. This is the premiere 55+ community in the country and 10,000 people a day keep turning 65 regardless of what the interest rates are.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by GoRedSox!

As I said in another thread, I know from first-hand experience that the previous Lifestyle Visit homes in Alden Bungalows sold literally like hot-cakes. I looked on The Villages website within the last couple months and there were 26 pending homes in Alden Bungalows at the same time. They sold a lot of homes there and they all went very quickly.

Yes, I think that there is going to be some impact by 8% mortgage rates, but I still believe that the biggest factor is some normalization after the pandemic. Especially for potential buyers who live in areas where selling their homes is no longer as easy as it once was.

The shrinking group of senior demographic due to inflation and having to return to work because of fixed incomes along with the post COVID drop in the desire to move to Florida could also be a larger part of the calculus.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Two Premier Homes near me just sold for $1 million (give or take a few thousand)...

Prices are adjusting to normal from the "Covid Craze" of the last two years (Spring 2021-Spring/Summer 2023...)

If you bought during that time, you'll have a harder time "making a killing"...

That's not true. I bought a new Topaz investment villa in 2021, sold it 19 months later in 2022 for $325 and they are still selling in that price range depending on location. Some that bought during that period will break even, a few will lose and those that bought early in 2121 will make a really good profit.

[GoRedSox!]

Originally Posted by Normal

The shrinking group of senior demographic due to inflation and having to return to work because of fixed incomes along with the post COVID drop in the desire to move to Florida could also be a larger part of the calculus.

Inflation doesn't go away overnight, but has come down significantly. Another factor which goes the other way is that bank savings are getting interest for the first time in a decade or more. The best I could do at local banks a few years ago even for a CD was 2/10's of 1%. It was truly pocket change. Now, cash get 5.5%. And I know Social Security is often referred to as "fixed income," but it did receive inflationary COLA's of 17% over the past 3 years.

I don't think that The Villages has any expectation of pandemic level buying to continue indefinitely. It was not a normal real estate market. If this market is normalizing, it's not a bad thing.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

That's not true. I bought a new Topaz investment villa in 2021, sold it 19 months later in 2022 for $325 and they are still selling in that price range depending on location. Some that bought during that period will break even, a few will lose and those that bought early in 2121 will make a really good profit.

Actually, you're agreeing with me...

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by GoRedSox!

Inflation doesn't go away overnight, but has come down significantly. Another factor which goes the other way is that bank savings are getting interest for the first time in a decade or more. The best I could do at local banks a few years ago even for a CD was 2/10's of 1%. It was truly pocket change. Now, cash get 5.5%. And I know Social Security is often referred to as "fixed income," but it did receive inflationary COLA's of 17% over the past 3 years.

I don't think that The Villages has any expectation of pandemic level buying to continue indefinitely. It was not a normal real estate market. If this market is normalizing, it's not a bad thing.

Inflation rates can drop, but the lower rate is still based on the much higher prices from the massive inflation we had for 2 years...

Inflation can drop to zero, but we're still stuck with significantly higher prices...

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Inflation rates can drop, but the lower rate is still based on the much higher prices from the massive inflation we had for 2 years...

Inflation can drop to zero, but we're still stuck with significantly higher prices...

Exactly, it’s not like prices will drop when inflation levels out - if prices drop, that’s called deflation.
Last time there was deflation was 2009, about 2 - 3 months, prices dropped 1 to 2 %, then rose again.

[Normal]

The Villages latest new look for depreciations.