[kansasr]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Statistically, you cannot extrapolate 5 deaths in a county with our population to mean anything

How about 2 more today, 7 total

[tophcfa]

All these posts and no one answered the OP’s original question. Easy answer, Championship Golf!

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by kansasr

How about 2 more today, 7 total

And you think that statistically changes anything????

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And you think that statistically changes anything????

Yes, slightly. Now the stat is: 8% of cases die.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Yes, slightly. Now the stat is: 8% of cases die.

Way too small a sampling size----just the fact that Sumter County is 8% and the national average is like 2% makes it an outlier.

Only 1001 people tested in Sumter with 84 positive and 900 negative

So the death rate is 8% of 8% of those tested, = 0.64%. PLUS, many of those tested received the test because of symptoms, so the cohort was pre-selected. The rest were asymptomatic and part of the UF study.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Way too small a sampling size----just the fact that Sumter County is 8% and the national average is like 2% makes it an outlier.

Only 1001 people tested in Sumter with 84 positive and 900 negative

So the death rate is 8% of 8% of those tested, = 0.64%. PLUS, many of those tested received the test because of symptoms, so the cohort was pre-selected. The rest were asymptomatic and part of the UF study.

Actually not too small. Of the cases in Sumter, 8% die. Not looking at tested or total population. I'm not comparing to national.

[kansasr]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

And you think that statistically changes anything????

No, but it does mean 7 of our neighbors are no longer with us and there will be more unless YOU STAY HOME.

[UpNorth]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

All these posts and no one answered the OP’s original question. Easy answer, Championship Golf!

Yes. Outside The Villages. Playing solo. At half the price. Did it the other day. Best round of the year, by far.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Actually not too small. Of the cases in Sumter, 8% die. Not looking at tested or total population. I'm not comparing to national.

Forced to disagree
7 deaths out of 90 positive tests out of 1013 tested.

That's 7.8% mortality among 90 positive tests that were for the most part pre-selected for symptoms.
I'd have to run a detailed statistical analysis to get a P value, but eyeballing it I doubt it is <0.05
There are a few on TOTV well versed in these types of statistics, would like to know what they think.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Forced to disagree
7 deaths out of 90 positive tests out of 1013 tested.

That's 7.8% mortality among 90 positive tests that were for the most part pre-selected for symptoms.
I'd have to run a detailed statistical analysis to get a P value, but eyeballing it I doubt it is <0.05
There are a few on TOTV well versed in these types of statistics, would like to know what they think.

Forced to laugh. It's like a doctor doing 90 surgeries because of pre-selected symptoms. If seven die, find another doctor.



And there is no P in Sumter.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Forced to laugh. It's like a doctor doing 90 surgeries because of pre-selected symptoms. If seven die, find another doctor.



And there is no P in Sumter.

Bad analogy. More like picking his worst 90 surgeries out of thousands and 7 died

Didn't see a "P" in any of my Sumters. Did you faux pas????

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Bad analogy. More like picking his worst 90 surgeries out of thousands and 7 died

Didn't see a "P" in any of my Sumters. Did you faux pas????

Wrong again.

[biker1]

You have me interested. What, precisely, is the hypothesis?

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Forced to disagree
7 deaths out of 90 positive tests out of 1013 tested.

That's 7.8% mortality among 90 positive tests that were for the most part pre-selected for symptoms.
I'd have to run a detailed statistical analysis to get a P value, but eyeballing it I doubt it is <0.05
There are a few on TOTV well versed in these types of statistics, would like to know what they think.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by biker1

You have me interested. What is the hypothesis?

I didn't think 7 deaths, 90 positive tests, and 1013 people tested was a large enough sample to draw the conclusion that a Sumter County resident has a 7.8% chance of dying if he/she contracts the virus, especially since it's a one off from the national and state averages. Somebody disagreed. He's one of the good guys, just wrong this time.

[biker1]

We are looking at an average age of 65+ for Sumter County (80% of Sumter County lives in The Villages). The sample size is small but we do know that age is a factor. If you are tested positive, I suspect you will have issues. I think the national and state averages are misleading unless age is factored in. I don't believe numbers from other countries are useful since their counting of deaths from coronavirus is different than ours. However, I suspect you are correct in your hypothesis.

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

I didn't think 7 deaths, 90 positive tests, and 1013 people tested was a large enough sample to draw the conclusion that a Sumter County resident has a 7.8% chance of dying if he/she contracts the virus, especially since it's a one off from the national and state averages. Somebody disagreed. He's one of the good guys, just wrong this time.