[Skunky1]

My parents kept a substantial stash of non-perishable food once they recovered from the great depression

[Skunky1]

Natures way of paying us back for our greed and disrespect

[Westie Man]

Originally Posted by Rebel Pirate

The term Black Swan was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT), a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader. Taleb wrote about the idea of a Black Swan event in a 2007 book prior to the events of the 2008 financial crisis. Taleb argued that because Black Swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a Black Swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to plan accordingly.

Taleb describes a Black Swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

I hasten to add that the catastrophic nature of the event must be experienced by all of a society or at least a large portion of the population. I would also argue that for an event to be a true Black Swan it must precipitate some lasting change for society, in an attempt by society to protect itself from a recurrence.

I was chatting with some west coast friends last night and brought up the number of Black Swans we have seen in our life time. My list would include:
The Rodney King riots - a Black Swan mainly (only?) for the greater LA area (1992)
The terrorist attacks of 9/11 (2001)
The housing market collapse and ensuing financial meltdown (2008)
The COVID-19 pandemic (2020)

Would you add any others to the list?

Many race riots before RK, no black swan
WTC attacked in 93. 01 not a black swan
Resolution Trust Corporation dumping seized RE circa 92, 08 not a black swan
1918 influenza pandemic, COVID-19 not a black swan

[KayKay100]

So we have to cauterize the wound.

[toeser]

I don't have any old ones to add, but I have a future one. Our national debt, which is screaming higher, will precipitate a future black swan of massive proportions. Anyone who understands compounding and can work an Excel spreadsheet can easily see that we are heading into a financial no-man's-land. It qualifies as a black swan because absolutely no one can accurately predict the timing of the event or the exact nature of how it plays out, even though some of us expect it. The idea that our Fed can create money out of thin air with no limit will be proven to be wrong.

It's going to happen. My wish is that it occurs after my time.

[rickdankert]

1963 Kennedy assassination, 1968 MLK assassination, 1974 Arab oil embargo.

[Windguy]

Originally Posted by Rebel Pirate

My bad for not being more clear. I was curious if anyone believes there have been any other Black Swans during their lifetime?

You were very clear. For me, maybe Sputnik?

[huange@verizon.net]

I would argue that the 2008 financial collapse was predictable created by banks and loan companies giving credit to borrowers with poor or no credit worthiness.

[Rapscallion St Croix]

How about an expected event that ultimately did not occur? I wonder if my brother and his wife ever road those bicycles they bought because their car was not going to be operational.

Y2K

[John_W]

1969, the NY Mets and the NY Jets both win a championship at Shea Stadium, and unfortunately they were against the Baltimore Orioles and Baltimore Colts.

[NFRicaS]

Originally Posted by Luv2Bretired

I agree. I was in the Maryland Army National Guard and we were called to active duty for about ten days at the Fifth Regiment Armory in downtown Baltimore. I could tell some stories about that experience but I will not.

Although it happened a couple years before I was born I would suggest the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor. Fortunately the A-bomb was developed and used ending the war before possibly millions more were killed in battle.

Kennedy’s assassination is another big one.

St Helena’s erupting, the Alaskan earthquake and AIDS come to mind as well.

Interesting article I read mentioned that the bombs did not end the war, that Russia’s attack on Japan did...Japan used the bombs as a way to save face...

[caseycasebeer]

Sounds like an interesting article, do you recall the source?

[davem4616]

Originally Posted by Rebel Pirate

The term Black Swan was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT), a finance professor, writer, and former Wall Street trader. Taleb wrote about the idea of a Black Swan event in a 2007 book prior to the events of the 2008 financial crisis. Taleb argued that because Black Swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a Black Swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to plan accordingly.

Taleb describes a Black Swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

I hasten to add that the catastrophic nature of the event must be experienced by all of a society or at least a large portion of the population. I would also argue that for an event to be a true Black Swan it must precipitate some lasting change for society, in an attempt by society to protect itself from a recurrence.

I was chatting with some west coast friends last night and brought up the number of Black Swans we have seen in our life time. My list would include:
The Rodney King riots - a Black Swan mainly (only?) for the greater LA area (1992)
The terrorist attacks of 9/11 (2001)
The housing market collapse and ensuing financial meltdown (2008)
The COVID-19 pandemic (2020)

Would you add any others to the list?

I would add Pearl Harbor 12/7/1941...

now, I'm not intending to be a wise guy....however many times when we've traveled to Europe and visited botanical gardens, low and behold what do we see "black swans" swimming in the pools....I never knew that they actually existed

[Fenster]

Thank you for your post. Interesting.

[Rebel Pirate]

Originally Posted by Skunky1

Natures way of paying us back for our greed and disrespect

Skunky, sorry but I don't follow. What is natures way of paying us back for...?