[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CSB1228

Let's not forget "The Dust Bowl" in the 1930's. Was that global warming??

Actually many think that it was MAN MADE. Due to not rotating crops, not providing soil banks, and cutting down all the trees that could have blocked the winds.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Mhope

Ya think that all the concrete, asphalt, big buildings, billions of people needing food, shelter, vehicles etc might just have an affect on warming???? Slow the expansion of people and problem solved

Human population is controlled by wars and disease primarily. Global Warming increases human migration which can affect both.

[TrapX]

Climate scientists didn't predict hurricane Ian 30 days in advance.
Climate scientists predicted a direct hit to Tampa 2 days in advance. They evacuated to be safe from total destruction.
Climate scientists didn't predict the location for the eye to hit until it was only a few miles away from land.

Their models were close, but very wrong and incomplete. I'm glad they are as good as they are, but realize there are many factors that cannot be predicted.

So climate scientists... What is the exact date when the next hurricane will hit Florida? And where will it hit? How strong? What will the high and low temperatures be on that day?
Climate scientists didn't even predict the 15deg drop in daytime high temperatures until after Ian passed and it was happening.

And now try to convince me that you all know what will happen 100 years from now?

But wait. I can predict the next hurricane. I'll write it down, seal it in an envelope. I'll open it the day it happens to prove I am better at predicting than you. Of course I will predict every combination of a hurricane to hit for every day, impacting every city, and for every intensity. Thousands of prediction envelopes. One WILL be right. That's the one I'll pull out and show the world how great I am.
Analyzing data points to predict the future is a lot like that scenario. Pick the data points you want to use that show your sponsor's theories are spot on. Ignore the rest. Extrapolate into the future.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

That could very well be your best post ever. Everything you said is correct, overall, we will continue to get warmer, not just for the next 30 years, but probably for the next 15-25,000 years. After that, break out your parkas and snowshoes. But kudos to you for not stating any of this has to do with human activity. I'm getting sick of posts that should start with "Once upon a time....."

What do they say about "blind squirrels"?

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

True! And no matter what various people believe is causing it, climate scientists say that the next 30 years are going to be increasingly warmer. The oceans are getting warmer and are rising each year. 41% of all hurricanes that have hit the US have hit Florida. Probably because the shallow Gulf warms more than the deeper oceans. The Pacific coast has a cooler north-to-south flow of its ocean current. Atlantic has the opposite. So, more and stronger hurricanes will likely be in Florida's future.

Coastal living Floridians aware of this 30-year prediction are likely to slowly migrate to north central Florida. And many older ones will likely pick a location like The Villages. Full-time residents over 55 may start to prefer Georgia or the Carolinas due to the higher summer Florida heat.

I agree with this post...

(I can't believe I just wrote those words...)

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

I agree with this post...

(I can't believe I just wrote those words...)

What have you been drinking?

[sounding]

Great post. Also, there were many warming periods after the last ice age and before ours -- called the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, the Minoan Warm Period, and others -- and all while CO2 levels were much lower -- plus those civilizations thrived. For more information visit the Villages Weather Club where warm & cold periods are also discussed ... The Villages Weather Club

[sounding]

This is the Narrative, while the Data says otherwise as discussed in the Villages Weather Club. The poor farming practices caused the "dust" while the ocean heating cycles, called the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), caused the "heat." Both the AMO and PDO reached maximum strength during this period -- just like they are now -- but the PDO is weaker this time which is why it was hotter back then.

[sounding]

Population is also controlled by climate. During the last Ice Age Glaciation (20,000 years ago) the Neanderthals went extinct. During the Little Ice Age (350 years ago) they say at least 50 million died (which included the black death and massive crop failures). Humans are tropical in nature as we are born without fur. We thrive in heat and suffer in cold -- which is why I moved to The Villages.

[sounding]

"We are changing the earth right now" does apply to the things like Trash Mountains and Highway Litter. However, there is no climate emergency. We are just enhancing our climate with more plant food (CO2) and warming that is so tiny it can not be measured. For those who claim we are heating the planet, please tell me how much man-made CO2 altered earth's temperature last year.

[sounding]

The last Interglacial Warm Period was about 115,000 years ago, while the last Glaciation (ice age) was about 20,000 years ago. We are currently in the Pleistocene Ice Age, which began about 2.5 million years ago -- and there have been about 42 Glaciation cycles during this period. We are in earth's coldest period in history -- and each Glaciation is getting colder. Remember, most of earth's history had NO ice caps. These and other climate & weather trends are discussed in the Weather Club.

[sounding]

The deadliest tropical cyclone in recorded history is the Bhola Cyclone which hit Bangladesh in 1970, where about 400,000 died.

[MartinSE]

Originally Posted by TrapX

Climate scientists didn't predict hurricane Ian 30 days in advance.
Climate scientists predicted a direct hit to Tampa 2 days in advance. They evacuated to be safe from total destruction.
Climate scientists didn't predict the location for the eye to hit until it was only a few miles away from land.

Their models were close, but very wrong and incomplete. I'm glad they are as good as they are, but realize there are many factors that cannot be predicted.

So climate scientists... What is the exact date when the next hurricane will hit Florida? And where will it hit? How strong? What will the high and low temperatures be on that day?
Climate scientists didn't even predict the 15deg drop in daytime high temperatures until after Ian passed and it was happening.

And now try to convince me that you all know what will happen 100 years from now?

But wait. I can predict the next hurricane. I'll write it down, seal it in an envelope. I'll open it the day it happens to prove I am better at predicting than you. Of course I will predict every combination of a hurricane to hit for every day, impacting every city, and for every intensity. Thousands of prediction envelopes. One WILL be right. That's the one I'll pull out and show the world how great I am.
Analyzing data points to predict the future is a lot like that scenario. Pick the data points you want to use that show your sponsor's theories are spot on. Ignore the rest. Extrapolate into the future.

So, something isn't perfect enough to predict absolute accuracy and so it doesn't exist or is BS.

WOW.

Please provide us with ANYTHING that sicence can predict absolutely, and I will exclude light switches.

Sigh...

WOW. Just WOW.

[manaboutown]

I blame dog poop.

[MartinSE]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

I blame dog poop.

I agree with you, but is it big dog poop or lots of little dog poop? It's important.