[Leadbone1]

Originally Posted by xNYer

Sweden is anticipated to have 10584 deaths by August 14 with a population of only 10 million. The US is 33 times larger which would then have approximately 349000 using their model.
I wouldn’t call that a success.

Anticipated?? Sounds like you should be one of those modelers that got everything wrong?

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by xNYer

Sweden is anticipated to have 10584 deaths by August 14 with a population of only 10 million. The US is 33 times larger which would then have approximately 349000 using their model.
I wouldn’t call that a success.

Is that from the same folks that "anticipated" 2 million deaths in the US?

[Leadbone1]

Originally Posted by xNYer

Sweden is anticipated to have 10584 deaths by August 14 with a population of only 10 million. The US is 33 times larger which would then have approximately 349000 using their model.
I wouldn’t call that a success.

What a ridiculous reply to put forth such a stupid model which like all the others will be wrong. Currently Sweden has 2200 deaths in a country of 10.23 million people. That’s a mortality rate of only .0002 of 1%. I prefer to deal with facts rather than doom and gloom unfounded predictions as you do.

[JoelJohnson]

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"

[RedBoneJones]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Interesting opinion from Dr Scott Atlas of Stanford

The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation | TheHill

The circulation of such false claims is dangerous and distracts from actual true and pertinent information.

[Joelack99]

Originally Posted by xNYer

Sweden is anticipated to have 10584 deaths by August 14 with a population of only 10 million. The US is 33 times larger which would then have approximately 349000 using their model.
I wouldn’t call that a success.

This nails the fallacy of the article. The entire purpose of distancing is to avoid overwhelming the medical establishment so they can treat people instead of warehousing them to just die in the halls. You are about to see (in a month) what that looks like in Georgia. We are the vulnerable in any case. It’s tough, but don’t be fooled by political rhetoric into thinking this is over.
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

[Jazzman]

Originally Posted by Joelack99

This nails the fallacy of the article. The entire purpose of distancing is to avoid overwhelming the medical establishment so they can treat people instead of warehousing them to just die in the halls. You are about to see (in a month) what that looks like in Georgia. We are the vulnerable in any case. It’s tough, but don’t be fooled by political rhetoric into thinking this is over.
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

So I assume you are using some model to reach your prediction of what will occur in Georgia. If Georgia’s death rate or ICU utilization rate goes up, your prediction is correct. If not you’re wrong.

“In God we trust. All others bring data.”

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Joelack99

This nails the fallacy of the article. The entire purpose of distancing is to avoid overwhelming the medical establishment so they can treat people instead of warehousing them to just die in the halls. You are about to see (in a month) what that looks like in Georgia. We are the vulnerable in any case. It’s tough, but don’t be fooled by political rhetoric into thinking this is over.
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them: The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

Wrong, it's best to trust actual data rather than estimates, especially when most of the models have been catastrophically wrong. Here is actual real time data comparing growth of covid 19 cases of USA and Sweden. One country is in lockdown, the other is not.

Total confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people - Our World in Data

[Joe C.]

My opinion of all this is for us to use a modicum of common sense. Avoid large indoor crowds and keep a high standard of personal hygiene. I would prefer to see everyone out and about and all places of work, worship and recreation to be operating as normal as possible. The WORST thing to damage this country is for the economy to stop. In the end, we are all going to get exposed to this virus, just as we all have been exposed to all the other diseases and sickness that circulate. Might as well get out there. We should all be concerned about those who will be here tomorrow and the next and do all we can to ensure their economic well being for the future.

[xNYer]

Originally Posted by devorejh

What a ridiculous reply to put forth such a stupid model which like all the others will be wrong. Currently Sweden has 2200 deaths in a country of 10.23 million people. That’s a mortality rate of only .0002 of 1%. I prefer to deal with facts rather than doom and gloom unfounded predictions as you do.

Accepting your information would equate 2200 deaths in Sweden to 72600 deaths in the US when population differences are considered. Obviously they will have many more than that. Your reaction to the information only demonstrates a preordained position not amenable to change.

[aa1949a]

You must be young.

[Joelack99]

Originally Posted by Jazzman

So I assume you are using some model to reach your prediction of what will occur in Georgia. If Georgia’s death rate or ICU utilization rate goes up, your prediction is correct. If not you’re wrong.

“In God we trust. All others bring data.”

Yes. Virus spread and ICU capacity as modeled by Johns Hopkins. I’m betting my life their model is correct, and so will continue to isolate. What science are you using to predict you are safe?

And yes, the truth will come out in time.
Speaking of time, the same thing happened 100 years ago when people, misled by their government at war, stopped. The virus mutated and the bulk of 50 Million worldwide deaths occurred. This could happen again. No one knows. The Spanish Influenza Pandemic: a lesson from history 100 years after 1918

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.“

[Joelack99]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Wrong, it's best to trust actual data rather than estimates, especially when most of the models have been catastrophically wrong. Here is actual real time data comparing growth of covid 19 cases of USA and Sweden. One country is in lockdown, the other is not.

Total confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people - Our World in Data

The problem with this comparison is that the US is not only 33 times the size of Sweden but that the current outbreak looks contained only because New York, Michigan’s and a couple of other hot spots are beginning to be contained. Meanwhile states that are less dense and have not issued stay at home orders or worse, are assuming that the entire state is safer now that one hotspot is peaking (Georgia) will now have new and much worse outbreaks because the are seeded with untested, asymtomatic, contagious people.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by ithos

Ideas on returning our society to a normal state will always be hotly debated because there are too many unknown variables which precludes deriving incontrovertible solutions using scientific protocols.

Any path taken will require some trial and error methods. Fortunately this can be done on a local and state level so that risks are contained while lessons learned can be adopted by others. Thank you Georgia for ignoring the doomsayers and leading the way on undoing the devastation experienced by so many of our low and middle class citizens.

I sometimes misunderstand people and what they mean. I am told I misunderstood our president's question about injecting alcohol. Did you mean your highlighted statement above as satire?

[JoeinFL]

...