[cologal]

Originally Posted by TexaninVA

CDC is reportedly monitoring about 700 people as a result of the 2nd nurse’s travel to Cleveland. As I think about it, that number is likely low because it does not include people she may have passed by in the airport (sneeze?) and so forth. As I understand it, these 700 people are not quarantined but simply told to monitor while 21 days pass. But, they can interact with people. Should one of the 700 come down with Ebola, then presumably another network of many people would have to be tracked down and added to the list.

Thus, if we have say 10 infected people fly in from West Africa over the next month or so, and who do not show symptoms at the airport and thus let into the US (under current policy), I guess that means maybe 7,000 more people to monitor? Or maybe just 5,000? No one knows, except to say it would be a big number.

Thus, with only a few cases, the number of people needing to be monitored goes exponential and quickly outstrips our ability to do it. That’s why it needs to be prevented by restricting entry, not reacted to after a case is diagnosed.

You are misinformed....Ebola is NOT a cold. It is difficult to get.

[cologal]

Originally Posted by billethkid

I just read where Obama is Considering allowing infected non Americans from other parts of the world to come to the USA for treatment.
I find this to be a stretch or a mis-understanding.
I find it very difficult to understand that even Obama would not do something so very very stupid........right!

We sent troops to West Africa to build clinics......

So far only 2-3 people have been transferred back to the US for treatment. I believe they were either US citizens or healthcare workers.

[Rags123]

Originally Posted by sunnyatlast

I'm not too worried about myself or my family getting ebola. I worry more for the nation's infrastructure if ebola starts decimating all our nation's best medical and public safety forces. The people needed most to stop the disease and to treat the suffering patients are the first to get exposed, and they are in hospitals with air systems that affect thousands of patients already in the hospitals and are there because they are sick and weak and many have lowered immune systems.

There was no reason why Duncan HAD to be allowed to come here. He's not a citizen and I find it highly suspect that he was working reliably in a decent job, and he suddenly quit without notice on September 4. He then came to the U.S. to meet up with his "estranged" girlfriend. I think he was coming here to seek medical treatment for ebola, or to marry the woman to get legal immigration status, or both.

And as for his relatives in TX not having ebola, maybe he knew he had the disease and made sure nobody got close to him, staying in other livlng quarters, etc.

I concur. I do not think most are worried at this point about personally contracting Ebola.

What bothers me, and I have to try to make this non political and explain my view is that when you are elected President of the USA, politics should be out the window totally. We can all criticize the President and mostly it is not him but his staff. I say that because what I am reading...there has been one post about the Republicans blocking the surgeon general and that is patently a VERY BIG untruth. Other than that, most are just a bit concerned about how things are going and in my opinion, justified. I do not think anyone other than the one post attempted any politics, but I can be corrected.

Back in September, a number of reports were isssued which pretty much predicted this event or events in the USA....

"The outbreak of Ebola in West Africa has public health officials very alarmed. It is the world's largest and deadliest outbreak yet, and has infected about 3,600 people and killed at least 1,841 in three countries, according to the World Health Organization's tally. But there's a good chance the virus will spread outside of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia.

How good a chance? A study this week puts the odds that Ebola will arrive in the U.S. in late September as high as 18 percent. The study, published in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks, analyzed patterns of daily flights from the infected countries, keeping in mind how hard it will be to keep an infected person from boarding commercial airliners:"

This is from organizations who do this for a living.

Study finds 18 percent chance Ebola will arrive in the U.S. this month - The Week

For those who like to read this stuff, here is the actual report with graphs etc.

Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak – PLOS Currents Outbreaks

The analyisis which was available to world leaders before its early September publication said that there was a 25% chance of Ebola coming to the USA in 3 to 6 weeks. Amazingly, it was right on target.

I know we "only" have two cases but we were told the probability of America”s Ebola vulnerability was extremely low.

it is only two cases, yes....but those who feel that people are overreacting should step back.....a month ago, if you said EBOLA would be on our shores in a matter of weeks, you would have drawn snickers.

Let us hope this new Czar shows fortitude and rises about the political fray. Let us hope that information as pointed out above that was not shared, will be shared.

I have read posts about only 9 beds or something available...that concerns me. I hear we are still issuing passports...that concerns me. I assume everyone knows that African countries are "shutting down their borders" to the most contagious of countries.

It may be hard to catch, as pointed out.....anyone who has had small children know how unsanitary they can be....I just imagine how fast in one single school day it would spread between children and their families if the worst happened.

Be wise and open Mr Czar

[TexaninVA]

Originally Posted by cologal

You are misinformed....Ebola is NOT a cold. It is difficult to get.

No, I don't think I'm misinformed. If you have been following this thread at all, the current thinking is transmission is via body fluid contact and indeed relatively hard to contract. The issue of airborne spread is tbd ... no one knows for sure, and that's the wild card. I note that other strains of Ebola (eg Ebola Zaire) can indeed be spread via the air.

The point of the earlier post was to simply point out the mathematics of what's required to monitor people who've been exposed. Never said they would get it, but if the CDC thinks they should be monitored, there is some level of risk obviously. The takeaway for you to focus on is the exponential growth in numbers needed to monitor.

Do you dispute the math as cited in my post? If so, please elaborate.

[simpkinp]

I have to admit I am concerned. I liketotravel and have two trips planned, one a cruise. I can't imagine what it would be like comfined to a ship for weeks. Scary

[cologal]

Originally Posted by TexaninVA

No, I don't think I'm misinformed. If you have been following this thread at all, the current thinking is transmission is via body fluid contact and indeed relatively hard to contract. The issue of airborne spread is tbd ... no one knows for sure, and that's the wild card. I note that other strains of Ebola (eg Ebola Zaire) can indeed be spread via the air.

The point of the earlier post was to simply point out the mathematics of what's required to monitor people who've been exposed. Never said they would get it, but if the CDC thinks they should be monitored, there is some level of risk obviously. The takeaway for you to focus on is the exponential growth in numbers needed to monitor.

Do you dispute the math as cited in my post? If so, please elaborate.

It is very difficult to get... And yet we have people calling in saying they have been exposed to an Ebola pilot. There is to much hysteria going on. None of his family members have taken ill. The CDC is doing everything to stop the spread of this disease in the US.

[TexaninVA]

Originally Posted by cologal

It is very difficult to get... And yet we have people calling in saying they have been exposed to an Ebola pilot. There is to much hysteria going on. None of his family members have taken ill. The CDC is doing everything to stop the spread of this disease in the US.

You're either still missing what I said or not responding to it ... the whole point relates to the exponential nature of exposure and the impact to monitoring resources. I'm not talking about the likelihood of contracting it, although as I said, per the CDC there is a some level of risk even if low. That's the whole point of monitoring, isn't it?

[cologal]

Originally Posted by TexaninVA

You're either still missing what I said or not responding to it ... the whole point relates to the exponential nature of exposure and the impact to monitoring resources. I'm not talking about the likelihood of contracting it, although as I said, per the CDC there is a some level of risk even if low. That's the whole point of monitoring, isn't it?

I do get your point but I think the CDC is monitoring a lot of people. For example the Lab Tech on a cruise with no symptoms. The cruise line has already turned around and started cleaning the ship but this person has no symptoms so why?

People are calling for a travel ban but there are no direct flights...if we stop all travelers at the airport we have no facilities in which to keep them for 21 days. All the quarantine stations were shutdown long ago.

Tis a problem....

[dbussone]

Ok. We can all relax now! Just got an email from the WH explaining what I need to know about Enola:
An Ebola update from President Obama

Today, President Obama spoke to the nation about Ebola -- how the Administration is responding, and what you should know.

The Ebola virus is a public health and national security priority, and the President has directed the Administration to continue to take aggressive measures at every level of government.

President Obama reiterated that, while Ebola is a serious disease, Americans need to understand the facts and be guided by the science: Ebola is not easily transmitted. And we know how to fight it.

[gomoho]

Originally Posted by dbussone

Ok. We can all relax now! Just got an email from the WH explaining what I need to know about Enola:
An Ebola update from President Obama

Today, President Obama spoke to the nation about Ebola -- how the Administration is responding, and what you should know.

The Ebola virus is a public health and national security priority, and the President has directed the Administration to continue to take aggressive measures at every level of government.

President Obama reiterated that, while Ebola is a serious disease, Americans need to understand the facts and be guided by the science: Ebola is not easily transmitted. And we know how to fight it.

Well now I guess we can believe that and not worry about it anymore - the government has it under control. God help us.

[billethkid]

Originally Posted by gomoho

Well now I guess we can believe that and not worry about it anymore - the government has it under control. God help us.

Yup we have been talked out of imminent danger once again!!!

[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by Villages PL

Everyone has to die sooner or later from something, so this will be the something for some people. There's no nice way to die unless you live to 112 and your heart stops during the night. Did you ever see someone die from dementia, cancer or Parkinson's etc? It's not pretty.

Originally Posted by TexaninVA

I have to say, while I understand your point, I really don't get why you bothered making it within the context of the Ebola discussion.

VPL, could you please clarify? I don't understand your point.
Is it that Ebola is an easier way to die than from a debilitating disease?

[twinklesweep]

An intersting and controlled response by Shep Smith regarding the Ebola situation: Non political also.

[ame]http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2KBfynW09I[/ame]

__________________________________________________ ______

... by this completely sensible response to what has been the media coverage of ebola. And as pointed out by this poster, it is non-political, as it should be; this is a public health issue and most assuredly not a political one (though I recognize there are those whose lives are consumed by politics and feel compelled to make everything political). This commentator may be political with regard to other issues, but he certainly isn't with this particular report.

How awful it is that fear-mongering is alive and well when it comes to selling newspapers or increasing viewership.... And it is stunning how many people buy into it! This is true not just for this ebola issue but for many others that are used to create "news."

Yes, get your flu shot!!!

[Sandtrap328]

The video clip of Shep Smith was awesome! He said it so well.

Just imagine, 52,000 Americans die from influenza every year! All you have to do is to get a flu shot and you will have little chance of being one of those 52,000.

Ebola is a concern but it is not spreading into the general population of America.

Shep said it is NOT a political issue even though both parties will try and blame each other. Fair and Balanced is a good logo for this video.

[tcxr750]

And don't forget that 90,000 die each year from Healthcare Acquired Infections!
In the U.S. last week the score was Ebola-1, Healthcare System-1730.
Number of cruise ships turned away because of Ebola-1
Number of cruise ships turned away because of HAI-0