[AZ SLIM]

This article came out yesterday. It's fairly long report on why their forecasts are turning out to be wrong again this year. Hurricane experts now predict below-normal activity into September'''s season peak | Fox Weather

[Two Bills]

I won't believe it until the TV Weather Club approve the report!

[Michael 61]

Imagine that -since early August “they” kept reporting, “just wait another week or so, and hurricane frequency will greatly ramp up”; It’s like “they” had a vested interest in a very active hurricane season to propel their agenda and save face from yet another year of inaccurately predicting what the season will look like.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

I won't believe it until the TV Weather Club approve the report!

Probably a very good idea!

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by Michael 61

Imagine that -since early August “they” kept reporting, “just wait another week or so, and hurricane frequency will greatly ramp up”; It’s like “they” had a vested interest in a very active hurricane season to propel their agenda and save face from yet another year of inaccurately predicting what the season will look like.

If only it was as benign as to "save face". Unfortunately, "their" agenda is far more nefarious. The idea is to push the myth of imminent and catastrophic global warming to frighten the gullible and indoctrinated into supporting the proposed Paris accords plan of "combating" climate change to the tune of $168 TRILLION, which will line the pockets of the few that are pulling the strings of politicians, media and academia. And there is a whole array of creative taxes on the drawing board to pay for this folly. In retirement communities such as The Villages, the most frightening tax, much scarier than the specter of a warmer planet 50,000 years from now is the "wealth tax". This is where they come along and confiscate a percentage of your accumulated assets (which you have already paid tax on) each and every year. Depending on the percentage, how long do you think you'll last with this tax as well as the inflation that this ridiculous expenditure would cause????

[ThirdOfFive]

It is always something, isn't it? Every year since Katrina (which was supposed to signal the beginning of a HURRICANE ARMAGEDDON for GAWDsakes of SUPER POWERFUL STORMS that the planet has never YET SEEN), there've been excuses, one or more per year, as to just why this wasn't happening.

That info probably exists on the 'net. Be fun to find and catalog it.

It is not the end of the season yet. Hurricanes can and probably will still happen. And when they do, we will definitely hear about them. But this 18-year trend of doleful-predictions-followed-by-hollow-excuses is holding strong.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

It is always something, isn't it? Every year since Katrina (which was supposed to signal the beginning of a HURRICANE ARMAGEDDON for GAWDsakes of SUPER POWERFUL STORMS that the planet has never YET SEEN), there've been excuses, one or more per year, as to just why this wasn't happening.

That info probably exists on the 'net. Be fun to find and catalog it.

It is not the end of the season yet. Hurricanes can and probably will still happen. And when they do, we will definitely hear about them. But this 18-year trend of doleful-predictions-followed-by-hollow-excuses is holding strong.

Just a few of the "reasons" I was able to find.


1: The stratosphere apparently has to be abnormally warm for heightened hurricane formation. “Strong cold anomalies are being detected in the stratosphere over Southern Hemisphere. The anomalous cooling results from the water vapor coming from the January Hunga Tonga eruption. Cooling on this scale has not been seen in modern satellite records, so this is a significant event.” (Andrej Fles, “Severe Weather Europe”, 29/08/2022)

2: Subsurface ocean temps are too cool to produce energetic la Nina, which is apparently essential for hurricane formation. “Right now, the subsurface temperatures are much cooler than during El Niño…The immediate near-surface temperatures are still warmer, but the subsurface water pool and the warm water pool have dissipated, and so once that pops to the surface, it becomes La Niña,” (Pitchstone waters dot com, April 9, 2024). I wonder--how do they measure "subsurface" ocean temps, and how far down?

3: Wind Shear isn’t doing what it is supposed to be doing. “upper-level winds over the Atlantic tend to be stronger than usual, and thus stronger wind shear results. The faster air flow in the upper troposphere leads to faster wind speed with increasing height, making the upper atmosphere less favorable for tropical storm development.” (“Meet Wind Shear, the Phenomenon That Can Rip a Hurricane Apart” Zachary Handlos, Scientific American dot com, May 23, 2024)

4: Winds coming off the Sahara haven’t been as conducive to hurricane formation as usual. (Office of Response and Restoration, NOAA.GOV). A sort of confusing read.

5: “Hurricane Nadine in 2012 had dry Saharan air circulating near it—another potential inhibitor of intensification. In general, dry air can sink to the surface creating pools of cold air. The cold air often weakens the storm because it steals energy that would otherwise be available to the storm to grow stronger.” (“Since Katrina: NASA Advances Storm Models, Science”, Phys dot org, 8/21/2015

6” “Global warming is making the atmosphere more hostile to the formation of tropical cyclones.” (Andrea Thompson, Scientific American, 6/27/22).

7: “An unusual African monsoon season is not producing the sort of atmospheric seeds that typically go on to become hurricanes. Air high above the tropical Atlantic is so warm that it is actually preventing storms from brewing”. (Why Hurricane Season is Suddenly Quiet”, Scott Dance, The Washington Post). Note how this directly conflicts with Rationalization #1.

Anyway, there you have it. A hodgepodge of rationalizations, some apparently in direct contradiction to others. But all "scientific".

[firefighter4u]

If meteorologists aren't scaring you, they are not doing their job! lol

[Stu from NYC]

I will make my annual prediction for this year at the end of hurricane season. So far batting 1000.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

I will make my annual prediction for this year at the end of hurricane season. So far batting 1000.

Why bother???? Hurricanes never hit the Village of Stu

[Pondboy]

Oh no! One less hurricane. Let’s get a congressional inquiry going pronto!

It’s a guesstimate made months ago to anticipate a natural disaster. So what if it’s being downgraded.

Chill!

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by Pondboy

I’m sure you will also be the first to complain if one was coming at you……why didn’t they tell us ?

It’s a guesstimate made months ago to anticipate a natural disaster. So what if it’s being downgraded. Chill!

What????? Huh?????

That's not what the thread is all about. No one thinks the media should not report a hurricane that is out to sea and may approach land.

The point is that certain powers have an agenda to make TRILLIONS off the backs of our citizens, and the media is either actively or tacitly complicit in pushing this false narrative by forecasting imminent doom via predictions of more frequent and devastating hurricanes and daily reports of "heat indices" vs. the actual temperatures.

[Dusty_Star]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

Just a few of the "reasons" I was able to find.


1: The stratosphere apparently has to be abnormally warm for heightened hurricane formation. “Strong cold anomalies are being detected in the stratosphere over Southern Hemisphere. The anomalous cooling results from the water vapor coming from the January Hunga Tonga eruption. Cooling on this scale has not been seen in modern satellite records, so this is a significant event.” (Andrej Fles, “Severe Weather Europe”, 29/08/2022)

2: Subsurface ocean temps are too cool to produce energetic la Nina, which is apparently essential for hurricane formation. “Right now, the subsurface temperatures are much cooler than during El Niño…The immediate near-surface temperatures are still warmer, but the subsurface water pool and the warm water pool have dissipated, and so once that pops to the surface, it becomes La Niña,” (Pitchstone waters dot com, April 9, 2024). I wonder--how do they measure "subsurface" ocean temps, and how far down?

3: Wind Shear isn’t doing what it is supposed to be doing. “upper-level winds over the Atlantic tend to be stronger than usual, and thus stronger wind shear results. The faster air flow in the upper troposphere leads to faster wind speed with increasing height, making the upper atmosphere less favorable for tropical storm development.” (“Meet Wind Shear, the Phenomenon That Can Rip a Hurricane Apart” Zachary Handlos, Scientific American dot com, May 23, 2024)

4: Winds coming off the Sahara haven’t been as conducive to hurricane formation as usual. (Office of Response and Restoration, NOAA.GOV). A sort of confusing read.

5: “Hurricane Nadine in 2012 had dry Saharan air circulating near it—another potential inhibitor of intensification. In general, dry air can sink to the surface creating pools of cold air. The cold air often weakens the storm because it steals energy that would otherwise be available to the storm to grow stronger.” (“Since Katrina: NASA Advances Storm Models, Science”, Phys dot org, 8/21/2015

6” “Global warming is making the atmosphere more hostile to the formation of tropical cyclones.” (Andrea Thompson, Scientific American, 6/27/22).

7: “An unusual African monsoon season is not producing the sort of atmospheric seeds that typically go on to become hurricanes. Air high above the tropical Atlantic is so warm that it is actually preventing storms from brewing”. (Why Hurricane Season is Suddenly Quiet”, Scott Dance, The Washington Post). Note how this directly conflicts with Rationalization #1.

Anyway, there you have it. A hodgepodge of rationalizations, some apparently in direct contradiction to others. But all "scientific".

My favorite is #6. Directly against all the fear mongering of stronger & more frequent damaging storms due to 'you know what'. Rationalizations are made all over the map & that way they can pick & choose whichever story suits their purposes.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

What????? Huh?????

That's not what the thread is all about. No one thinks the media should not report a hurricane that is out to sea and may approach land.

The point is that certain powers have an agenda to make TRILLIONS off the backs of our citizens, and the media is either actively or tacitly complicit in pushing this false narrative by forecasting imminent doom via predictions of more frequent and devastating hurricanes and daily reports of "heat indices" vs. the actual temperatures.

All true. But it is not just the hurricanes. It is the incessant hoopla that precedes them that is fascinating. I think the progression is "tropical wave", followed by "tropical depression", followed by "tropical storm", all culminating in of course the HURRICANE. The doom-and-gloomers start their caterwauling every time a "wave" comes into being (or even if the conditions are ripe to produce one). I once looked up the frequencies of those. Can't recall exactly but it was something like only 50% of waves become "depressions, only 50% of depressions become tropical storms, and only 50% (sometimes much fewer) of tropical storms become hurricanes. But the way they're selling it Armageddon is just around the corner every time a wave appears.

But it is not just hurricanes. Back in Minnesota we had low temps in the winter as a matter of course. A favorite of forecasters seemed to be POSSIBLE wind chills, as in "wind chills are forecast to be as low as -55". That was the that limit of the range, and it rarely reached it, but it did indeed help to frighten people.

Another oddity was the "polar vortex". In the more northern climes, right after a substantial snowfall, we'd get a "Canadian High". Bright blue skies, lower temps, and wind. A Canadian High was to be welcomed: it meant that we could go out and shovel/plow the most recent accumulation, haul up some more firewood, strap on the X/C skis and go for a quick trip over the bright new snow, etc. However one day the weather guys stopped forecasting Canadian Highs and instead started calling them a "polar vortex". They (of course) emphasized the wind and the temperature drop in their forecasts, warning parents to PLEASE BE SURE L'il Jennifer was bundled to the max because of that GAWDawful polar vortex that was on the way (as if Minnesota parents don't know that already) and recommended supervision AT ALL TIMES when kids ventured out in mid-vortex.

The kicker is that one weather guy actually admitted that the term "polar vortex" was coined for precisely that reason. To generate fear.

Yep. Incite fear in the gullible and you can make them do just about anything.

[Taltarzac725]

Climate vs. weather.

And they are not very good at predicting things more than a few weeks out. But they are getting really accurate at a few hours ahead.