[Bucco]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Agree on that.
Even the medics in our unit did not wear any protection in '57.
As for social distancing, it was never even mentioned or given a thought.

I believe there was already a vaccine when it reached our country and it was less contagious

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Lottoguy

I can assure you they did NOT wear masks or social distance back in 1957. One can only imagine how many more deaths we would have right now if we had not done this.

Great! Can you explain to us why the covid 19 virus followed an infection and death curve in Sweden that rose to a peak and then plummeted after less than 10% of residents were infected while using no masks or lockdowns and only mild social distancing guidelines? Why does their chart of deaths and cases look the same as many lockdown/mask places?

When you are done explaining that, please expound on why New York, after enacting a strict lockdown and recommending facemasks, proceeded to enjoy the second worst deaths per million rate in the world?

[Byte1]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Great! Can you explain to us why the covid 19 virus followed an infection and death curve in Sweden that rose to a peak and then plummeted after less than 10% of residents were infected while using no masks or lockdowns and only mild social distancing guidelines? Why does their chart of deaths and cases look the same as many lockdown/mask places?

When you are done explaining that, please expound on why New York, after enacting a strict lockdown and recommending facemasks, proceeded to enjoy the second worst deaths per million rate in the world?

Attachment 85497

You brought the water to the horse, yet it refuses to drink. For some, fact is only valid IF it fits their political narrative.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Byte1

You brought the water to the horse, yet it refuses to drink. For some, fact is only valid IF it fits their political narrative.

It's funny, I have posted that graph a million times asking the same questions and get zero answers. The data is looking straight into their eyes.

[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

You are trying hard and at least you come up with links but unfortunately they are either old and out of date or just completely wrong. Also, calling people trolls if they have a different view is contrary to the rules here and usually means a weak argument is coming.

Ooops, if I’ve violated the rules of ToTV, I apologize. I will be on the lookout, as usual, for those weak arguments, however. Thanks for the warning!

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Mayo clinic link: June 6
Business Insider link: May 15

The opinion piece in USA Today is recent but appears to be written with an agenda as they leave out a lot of facts. Their biggest mistake is believing the estimate that less than 10% of Swedes have antibodies. Read this article at the NYT about antibody testing and you will understand things much better.

Your Coronavirus Antibodies Are Disappearing. Should You Care?

Not trying that hard at all. Some of the links may not be quite as up to date as the latest ‘opinion’ you’ve found, but then again, they didn’t necessarily need to update an article without a compelling reason. The mistakes & agendas you allude to are, again, no more than opinion and not the end of this particular story. (You chose not to mention, but may have noticed, the WebMD article was reviewed on 7/15/20.) And, suggestion of latest research aside, none have been proven to be "completely wrong" as yet. Your optimism regarding the USA Today article is unfortunately only that; hopefully T-cells will prevent reinfection, but the science is not exactly definitive. T-cells do not equate immunity to influenza or the common cold, for example. Valid questions remain. There is even some dissension among experts, as is evident in the link you provide above. Did you misunderstand/discount the importance of those?

Originally Posted by GoodLife

All three articles you cite make no mention of very recent T cell research which shows huge percentages of people (50-80%) having T cell cross immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses. The T cell immunity does not go away, they found it viable 17 years after SARS infections. This T cell immunity does not show up in an antibody test. It does show up in charts in places like New York and Sweden, where death and cases went up to a peak and then fell approaching zero, despite the fact that one place had lockdowns and masks and the other did not. Despite the fact that neither place had confirmed cases over 5% of their population. So far I have gotten zero comments that can explain this every time I post it.

Attachment 85480

Comparing deaths rates and totals in different countries is more complicated than you think. Just because countries are neighbors does not mean they are comparable.

1. travel and tourism: Virus was seeded across the world by travelers. Places with more travelers from certain places got seeded with more virus. Sweden gets more travelers than Norway and Finland

2. How they count covid 19 deaths: Some countries, like USA and Sweden count virtually every death as covid 19 if the person was positive. Many countries only count it if covid 19 is the actual cause of death. Some countries, like Norway, do not count nursing home deaths or deaths outside of hospitals, Since nursing home deaths account for 50% or more of all covid deaths, this is like giving yourself automatic one puts on 9 out of 18 holes. "guys! look at my score" 60-70% of covid 19 deaths in Sweden were from nursing homes.

3. Ethnic groups: 18% of Swedens deaths were Somalis, which represent .69% of Sweden's population. Why? Because they did not follow basic social distancing guidelines and live in large multi generational family groups crammed into small apartments.

The only way to untangle the mess of inconsistent stats and differences between strategies is to look at excess deaths from covid 19. How many extra deaths over the yearly average of deaths from all causes. I will try to find some.

Sweden got hit hard, but when you compare their death rate per million (547) to other countries and US States, they don't even make the top 10

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

Many countries and US States are seeing a new surge of cases and deaths. Sweden cases and deaths per day are heading towards zero with no surge. They may end up looking good when all is said and done.

The NYT wrote an article called "A cautionary tale" slamming Sweden, but the real cautionary tale was sitting right under their noses.

Why Sweden Succeeded in “Flattening the Curve” and New York Failed - Foundation for Economic Education

OK, there may well be differences between Sweden & it’s neighboring Scandinavian countries. But not between Sweden & New Jersey or New York? Come on, let’s get back to apples and apples here. Like I’ve already pointed out, there are many reasons to discount these comparisons, including population density of the major cities as well as ALL the reasons you’ve included above to berate equating Sweden to their nearest neighbors, among others. The Swedes in general are healthier AND happier than Americans (yeah, I went there again), which we all know those affect the severity of the individual’s reaction to Covid-19. Plus the Swedish government did recommend mitigation efforts, some of which are included in your own chart: banning large meetings; working from home; limiting contact and avoiding crowded areas for those over 70 & closing secondary schools and universities. How many Swedes voluntarily complied with these recommendations? It certainly was spotty in the US, for many different reasons.

And really, what exactly IS your answer to my question: SO WHAT? Hammering in the opinion that the measures supported by much of the scientific community at the time of initial spread of Covid-19 in the US was somehow overreach by the government is confusing, given the poor showing we’ve had as a whole. Are you really suggesting a “let the chips fall where they may” (aka: herd immunity) philosophy would have somehow been better for the US, given the severity & high death rates in many areas? In the end, it seems to me that comparing the death rates of Covid-19 to anything else, including the 1957 H2N2 outbreak, without the myriad differences pointed out, is little more than flashy charts, graphs and potentially misleading numbers.
Finally, where exactly was all this latest research at the time that Covid-19 first entered the US? Well, it didn’t exist, did it? If it proves out, it could provide a very interesting hindsight perspective to the wisdom of the measures taken in this country. Some may claim to have foreseen the damage to come, but there is no shartage of self-proclaimed prophets these days...

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Ooops, if I’ve violated the rules of ToTV, I apologize. I will be on the lookout, as usual, for those weak arguments, however. Thanks for the warning!

Not trying that hard at all. Some of the links may not be quite as up to date as the latest ‘opinion’ you’ve found, but then again, they didn’t necessarily need to update an article without a compelling reason. The mistakes & agendas you allude to are, again, no more than opinion and not the end of this particular story. (You chose not to mention, but may have noticed, the WebMD article was reviewed on 7/15/20.) And, suggestion of latest research aside, none have been proven to be "completely wrong" as yet. Your optimism regarding the USA Today article is unfortunately only that; hopefully T-cells will prevent reinfection, but the science is not exactly definitive. T-cells do not equate immunity to influenza or the common cold, for example. Valid questions remain. There is even some dissension among experts, as is evident in the link you provide above. Did you misunderstand/discount the importance of those?


OK, there may well be differences between Sweden & it’s neighboring Scandinavian countries. But not between Sweden & New Jersey or New York? Come on, let’s get back to apples and apples here. Like I’ve already pointed out, there are many reasons to discount these comparisons, including population density of the major cities as well as ALL the reasons you’ve included above to berate equating Sweden to their nearest neighbors, among others. The Swedes in general are healthier AND happier than Americans (yeah, I went there again), which we all know those affect the severity of the individual’s reaction to Covid-19. Plus the Swedish government did recommend mitigation efforts, some of which are included in your own chart: banning large meetings; working from home; limiting contact and avoiding crowded areas for those over 70 & closing secondary schools and universities. How many Swedes voluntarily complied with these recommendations? It certainly was spotty in the US, for many different reasons.

And really, what exactly IS your answer to my question: SO WHAT? Hammering in the opinion that the measures supported by much of the scientific community at the time of initial spread of Covid-19 in the US was somehow overreach by the government is confusing, given the poor showing we’ve had as a whole. Are you really suggesting a “let the chips fall where they may” (aka: herd immunity) philosophy would have somehow been better for the US, given the severity & high death rates in many areas? In the end, it seems to me that comparing the death rates of Covid-19 to anything else, including the 1957 H2N2 outbreak, without the myriad differences pointed out, is little more than flashy charts, graphs and potentially misleading numbers.
Finally, where exactly was all this latest research at the time that Covid-19 first entered the US? Well, it didn’t exist, did it? If it proves out, it could provide a very interesting hindsight perspective to the wisdom of the measures taken in this country. Some may claim to have foreseen the damage to come, but there is no shartage of self-proclaimed prophets these days...

The T cell immunity in large percentages of the population has been confirmed by 3-4 studies done in different parts of the world. You don't have to believe or even understand this science, you can see it in data charts of cases and deaths per day in countries all over the world. I use the chart comparing New York and Sweden because it shows the same rise and fall of deaths even though the two places used completely different strategies. Both were hit hard by the virus, and in both places after less than 10% of residents were confirmed positive, the cases and deaths peaked and then started falling. Neither place has seen a surge in new cases or deaths like Florida and many other places. The only conclusion I and many scientists can see is that the virus hit a wall and ran out of targets that it could infect.

The wall is composed of aysmptomatics (CDC estimates 10 times confirmed tests) plus T cell immunes which the studies have estimated at anywhere from 50% to 80% of populations. It appears that Florida has now hit that wall as the new cases appear to have peaked and are going down. I predicted this would happen in another thread at the beginning of July by using a simple formula. I'm waiting a bit more to make sure this is not a false peak but it looks like we have hit "the wall" which is good news. Higher deaths will continue for a few more weeks as they lag new cases.



As far as hindsight goes, there are many scientists I read who raised alarms about the Imperial College models that were believed and promoted by Fauci and panicked most of the world into extreme lockdowns and economic chaos. Those models turned out to be catastrophically wrong. One epidemiologist named Knut Wittkowski at Rockefeller University was saying way back in March that the lockdowns were not necessary and stupid. He proposed that only the elderly and others with pre existing health problems should stay at home, let younger people continue working, let schools stay open. He was also very prescient about nursing homes and said that they should lock down completely and require all staff to stay at the nursing homes 24/7 so that they could not bring the virus into that vulnerable population. YouTube censored his video because it went against WHO ideas and was considered misinformation.

I think Witkowski's plan would have resulted in fewer deaths overall and a LOT LESS economic chaos. He is not some lone whacko either, some of the most highly cited epidemiologists in the world like John Ioaniddis of Stanford agree with him and were warning against drastic lockdowns in March. Nobel Prize winner Michael Levitt also at Stanford is where I first got the idea that herd immunity threshold could be as low as 20-30%. These are not "internet prophets" and are some of the most eminent and cited scientists in the world.

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data