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Covid Vaccine Distribution

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  #76  
Old 12-09-2020, 10:52 PM
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Highest reported cases per 100,000 people

Andorra 9,255
Luxembourg 6,331
Montenegro 6,196
Bahrain 5,614
French Polynesia 5,440
San Marino 5,328
Belgium 5,188
Czech 5,186
Qatar 5,040
Armenia 4,842
Are you also considering scale? The number of individuals affected. Nobody beats the US unfortunately.
  #77  
Old 12-10-2020, 04:57 AM
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Thanks to Operation Warp Speed there are two effective vaccines to fight Covid19 as well as a surplus of ventilators that we shared with the world. We could have ordered Pfizer to hoard all the Covid19 vaccine for the US but generously shared it with other nations at a fair price to reflect the cost of production. The best government program since the Marshal Plan.
Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!
  #78  
Old 12-10-2020, 10:26 AM
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Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!
Not to mention most of the Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in Belgium.
  #79  
Old 12-10-2020, 10:44 AM
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Are you also considering scale? The number of individuals affected. Nobody beats the US unfortunately.
The proper metric for measuring the impact is cases per hundred not total cases. If a country had 10,000 citizens and half died of Covid 19 that would be 5,000 deaths much, much less than the US but I don’t think anyone with a basic grammar school math knowledge would say the small country handled it better than the US.
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Old 12-10-2020, 10:52 AM
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Considering it was a German research company that the vaccine originated from, that was very generous of Phizer and the US.
Shame the Lysol injections never worked out!
Nothing you wrote contradicts the fact the under the DPA the US could have put itself first in line and hoarded all the vaccine for itself. The allocations were done jointly with our allies and reasonable prices set. The Biden administration, to its credit, has decided to extend Operation Warp Speed because it has been so successful.
  #81  
Old 12-10-2020, 11:33 AM
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Not to mention most of the Pfizer vaccine is manufactured in Belgium.
All UK vaccine was from Belgium.
  #82  
Old 12-10-2020, 12:09 PM
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The proper metric for measuring the impact is cases per hundred not total cases. If a country had 10,000 citizens and half died of Covid 19 that would be 5,000 deaths much, much less than the US but I don’t think anyone with a basic grammar school math knowledge would say the small country handled it better than the US.
Nope, because Covid is spread by people, the proper metric is density. Too bad we do not have stats by density of population. Look at New York, if you want to look at a smaller geographic area, for example.

I understand it is hard to accept that this beautiful country is suffering to this extent, and I have every hope that the vaccine will help. It depends on many people’s attitude to what extent and how soon we will recover.

Last edited by Velvet; 12-10-2020 at 12:15 PM.
  #83  
Old 12-10-2020, 02:05 PM
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Nope, because Covid is spread by people, the proper metric is density. Too bad we do not have stats by density of population. Look at New York, if you want to look at a smaller geographic area, for example.

I understand it is hard to accept that this beautiful country is suffering to this extent, and I have every hope that the vaccine will help. It depends on many people’s attitude to what extent and how soon we will recover.
I’ll try to make it simple.There are two countries one large the other small.

In the small country 50% of the residents die from Covid 19.
In the large country 1% of the residents die from Covid 29.

In which country would one be more likely to die from Covid 19?

This is very basic grammar school math. If math wasn’t you strong suit I understand, but that is as simple as it gets and I can’t help you further. Sorry.
  #84  
Old 12-10-2020, 02:19 PM
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I’ll try to make it simple.There are two countries one large the other small.

In the small country 50% of the residents die from Covid 19.
In the large country 1% of the residents die from Covid 29.

In which country would one be more likely to die from Covid 19?

This is very basic grammar school math. If math wasn’t you strong suit I understand, but that is as simple as it gets and I can’t help you further. Sorry.
You are missing the point. If one country has everyone living in a high rise, and the other one, people are spread out as in rural areas. Or like Zukerman and Oprah, have half an island estates.... where do you think there will be more Covid?

Don’t give up, try to think it through. I appreciate your input.

(And both in economics and engineering we did use math extensively. I do follow what you are saying.)

Last edited by Velvet; 12-10-2020 at 02:28 PM.
  #85  
Old 12-10-2020, 04:11 PM
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government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.


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Originally Posted by Velvet View Post
You are missing the point. If one country has everyone living in a high rise, and the other one, people are spread out as in rural areas. Or like Zukerman and Oprah, have half an island estates.... where do you think there will be more Covid?

Don’t give up, try to think it through. I appreciate your input.

(And both in economics and engineering we did use math extensively. I do follow what you are saying.)
Let’s back up to your original post, reprinted above in part , where you postulate that democratic governments generally care for their citizens. I agree with you on that point.

Then you state that the US is a) having probably the most difficult time controlling Covid 19 in the world because b) some citizens rebel at following rules like wearing masks. I agree with you on part (b) but on what basis do you state (a) is true? You imply total Covid cases then change your mind and state density is the criteria.

We both have scientific backgrounds so would you please give a hypothetical example with numbers in the formula you would use to calculate your definition of density? I’m going to take a guess and say you would like to take a density function for each very small delta area of the US and some mortality function for the same delta area and with some combined function integrate or sum over all delta areas in the US or whatever country being studied.
  #86  
Old 12-10-2020, 04:35 PM
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NOTHING, that ANY State or Country has done, has stopped this virus. Not lockdowns, not masks, NOTHING. So get off the denigration of our Governor and President.

By eliminating the usual Government agency slow dance, this Administration has facilitated the development of MULTIPLE vaccines. By June, anyone who wants it will have it. Have you all lost your common sense? Do you really need Big Brother to tell you what to do?

I am sick and tired of hearing the same rants from the same suspects on this forum. If you are all such experts why aren't you volunteering to "fix" the problem? Give it a rest.

Rant out.
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  #87  
Old 12-10-2020, 04:52 PM
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Originally Posted by John41 View Post
government as they have no good intentions for the general public. But a democratic country’s government usually has the general population’s interest at heart. I give them the benefit of the doubt. Those individuals who react, just because someone tells what to do, remind me of toddlers. They don’t evaluate, they just say, “Don’t tell me what to do!” There is a reason why with ALL the available resources, being in many ways FIRST among the nations of the world, the US is probably having the most difficulty controlling this virus on the globe.




Let’s back up to your original post, reprinted above in part , where you postulate that democratic governments generally care for their citizens. I agree with you on that point.

Then you state that the US is a) having probably the most difficult time controlling Covid 19 in the world because b) some citizens rebel at following rules like wearing masks. I agree with you on part (b) but on what basis do you state (a) is true? You imply total Covid cases then change your mind and state density is the criteria.

We both have scientific backgrounds so would you please give a hypothetical example with numbers in the formula you would use to calculate your definition of density? I’m going to take a guess and say you would like to take a density function for each very small delta area of the US and some mortality function for the same delta area and with some combined function integrate or sum over all delta areas in the US or whatever country being studied.
Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.

My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.

Last edited by Velvet; 12-10-2020 at 06:21 PM.
  #88  
Old 12-10-2020, 06:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Aloha1 View Post
NOTHING, that ANY State or Country has done, has stopped this virus. Not lockdowns, not masks, NOTHING. So get off the denigration of our Governor and President.

By eliminating the usual Government agency slow dance, this Administration has facilitated the development of MULTIPLE vaccines. By June, anyone who wants it will have it. Have you all lost your common sense? Do you really need Big Brother to tell you what to do?

I am sick and tired of hearing the same rants from the same suspects on this forum. If you are all such experts why aren't you volunteering to "fix" the problem? Give it a rest.

Rant out.
I agree that Operation Warp Speed has been a success , but the government has the responsibility in part for public health information like wearing masks being advisable to slow the spread of the virus. Agree that only the vaccine will facilitate herd immunity and eliminate this virus. But also agree we need to consider if the government information has purposes other than health.
  #89  
Old 12-10-2020, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Velvet View Post
Yes, but people are not identical. The effect of density also depends on socioeconomic class etc. All high rises building populations are not alike. Therefore a calculus integral would not reflect the probability of Covid cases per area correctly, in my opinion.

What I was thinking was that there are large geographic areas in the US which have a low density for population. I know you may say that “per capita” takes that into account. My thinking is there are many factors which determine an equivalent comparison of different countries or even counties.

My guess is you may have an applied science type of background from your suggestion. In the social sciences we tend to use statistical analysis, regressive equations because more dissimilar factors can be included.

Originally when I read your post I thought it was a criticism of Operation Warp Speed because we had a large total of Covid 19 cases. After rereading it I think your intent was to say that the total would be much lower if everyone wore a mask and didn’t act like rebellious teenagers.

I agree regression or statistical analysis would be the most practical way of proving your hypotheses which is, I think,

“If everyone wears a mask, then the number of Covid 19 cases will be reduced by X percent.”

As you point out this is a multivariate regression analysis and the t-test would be used to test the statistical significance of each coefficient and the assumption of linearity in the coefficients would have to be investigated as well. (as best I remember)

A stratified sampling approach would be needed for statistical analysis again because of
the non homogeneity of the population.

Either way it sounds like it is too complicated to give an answer in a short timeframe, more like a public health PhD thesis. I think that’s why simpler metrics like cases per hundred thousand or totals are used. Maybe AI will help make those computations easier in the future.

We always wear masks and haven’t had friends over since March. Very boring but necessary.

My background is math/physics undergrad and finance/economics graduate . Worked in an engineering department.
  #90  
Old 12-10-2020, 07:35 PM
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Originally when I read your post I thought it was a criticism of Operation Warp Speed because we had a large total of Covid 19 cases. After rereading it I think your intent was to say that the total would be much lower if everyone wore a mask and didn’t act like rebellious teenagers.

I agree regression or statistical analysis would be the most practical way of proving your hypotheses which is, I think,

“If everyone wears a mask, then the number of Covid 19 cases will be reduced by X percent.”

As you point out this is a multivariate regression analysis and the t-test would be used to test the statistical significance of each coefficient and the assumption of linearity in the coefficients would have to be investigated as well. (as best I remember)

A stratified sampling approach would be needed for statistical analysis again because of
the non homogeneity of the population.

Either way it sounds like it is too complicated to give an answer in a short timeframe, more like a public health PhD thesis. I think that’s why simpler metrics like cases per hundred thousand or totals are used. Maybe AI will help make those computations easier in the future.

We always wear masks and haven’t had friends over since March. Very boring but necessary.

My background is math/physics undergrad and finance/economics graduate . Worked in an engineering department.
Of course. In complete agreement.... which as you know is very unusual for two individuals in economics.
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