[MDLNB]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

July 2: FL 7-day average: 30 deaths per day
Aug 2: FL 7-day average: 52 deaths per day

It's been a while but back when I was in school moving from 30 to 52 was considered an increase.

Sorry, but one week does not mean the death rate is increasing. If you check the stats for the past two years, you will find that there has been a steady decrease in deaths. Before causing a great panic folks need to look at the total picture. I don't know where you got your figures but I get mine from the CDC site.

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Hi Gracie,

I remember February, 2020, as the time when we were all just finding out what we could be in for. I think February of 2020 was the first of many of those “going away” statements. That one was something about the heat coming in to take it out in April.

A quick Google will find many such empty declarations. I guess you must have missed them.

I find the fact that it has been so easy for so many to accept the rewriting of reality to be damn scary. With the vaccine, we now have a way to fight the virus — but dysinformation just keeps on spreading — and winning. (shudder)

Boomer

Gracie......Boomer tells the truth. I heard it too. Many, many times. Yup.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by MDLNB

Sorry, but one week does not mean the death rate is increasing. If you check the stats for the past two years, you will find that there has been a steady decrease in deaths. Before causing a great panic folks need to look at the total picture. I don't know where you got your figures but I get mine from the CDC site.

Here are mine, now where are yours?

If I check the stats over the past two years I will see a tremendous increase in deaths due to Covid. If I check the stats over the past two months I will see a decrease, likely due to vaccinations, and then a steady increase, likely due to Delta.

[MDLNB]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

Here are mine, now where are yours?

If I check the stats over the past two years I will see a tremendous increase in deaths due to Covid. If I check the stats over the past two months I will see a decrease, likely due to vaccinations, and then a steady increase, likely due to Delta.

Washington Post???


Like I said, July was the lowest month in a year, almost two years. Aug just started and does not represent anything other than Aug. Usually a trend is longer than a week, right? I get it. Folks want to panic whenever there is any deaths related to an illness. Guess I like to reserve my stress level until there is something REAL to concern me.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by MDLNB

Washington Post???


Like I said, July was the lowest month in a year, almost two years. Aug just started and does not represent anything other than Aug. Usually a trend is longer than a week, right? I get it. Folks want to panic whenever there is any deaths related to an illness. Guess I like to reserve my stress level until there is something REAL to concern me.

And your data is where??

If you read anything in my posts or on that page that implied totals for the month of August then you were reading it wrong. The trend is not for the month, the 7-day average is for the time period ending on August 2 which would be July 27 - Aug 2.

Look, as I wrote to another poster, I know I am not going to change your mind. You have seen the data and read the arguments and have decided that none of that matters, you are going to wait until there is something REAL to concern you. My concern is for those who might be swayed by the some of the utter nonsense that gets posted here. For example, a claim that deaths have not been climbing recently which is demonstrably false.

[MDLNB]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

And your data is where??

If you read anything in my posts or on that page that implied totals for the month of August then you were reading it wrong. The trend is not for the month, the 7-day average is for the time period ending on August 2 which would be July 27 - Aug 2.

Look, as I wrote to another poster, I know I am not going to change your mind. You have seen the data and read the arguments and have decided that none of that matters, you are going to wait until there is something REAL to concern you. My concern is for those who might be swayed by the some of the utter nonsense that gets posted here. For example, a claim that deaths have not been climbing recently which is demonstrably false.

Uhh, Jul 27- Aug 2 is what you call a trend? Like I said, even with the graph you provided it proves what I have been saying.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by MDLNB

Uhh, Jul 27- Aug 2 is what you call a trend? Like I said, even with the graph you provided it proves what I have been saying.

You have been saying a lot yet showing nothing. Where is the link to your data.

I'm not arguing with you about this anymore. As I said last time, I'm not going to convince you.

[MDLNB]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

You have been saying a lot yet showing nothing. Where is the link to your data.

I'm not arguing with you about this anymore. As I said last time, I'm not going to convince you.

Like I said my info came from the CDC website. But, your information also supports what I said. One week in Aug is not a trend.

Originally Posted by MDLNB

Like I said my info came from the CDC website. But, your information also supports what I said. One week in Aug is not a trend.

You are correct that one week of data does not establish a statistically significant trend.
————————————
Basic Regression Analysis
ec 10, 2010 · If you calculate trends over a short period you don’t get statistically significant trends, and over a longer period you do get statistically significant trends. This is true for almost any real life data, and how long it takes for trend to show up over short term non-trended variation will depend on the data.