[davem4616]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Most of us want the facts. Period.

Some of us want to make up conspiracy theories.

Some of us like to have the title of hall monitor.

I think anyone who doesn't take Covid-19 seriously and is old enough to live here is STUPID.

One of my friends wearing a mask was heckled by someone here and called "sheep".

She was a surgical nurse for thirty years.

Because most people live and survive the virus, that fact, should not minimize the real danger to the elderly who if they contract the disease have a much higher chance of dying of it. Usually choking to death alone with "concrete lungs".

We are still here. Hello. Show me your hands if you want to die.

No thank you.

All it takes is a little common sense and you dramatically decrease your chances of getting covid-19

I skip over all these 'facts and charts' that are continually being posted on TOTV regarding covid-19....I got the message awhile back, it's real and it's dangerous to us older folks

The only 'fact' and statistic that matters to me is whether my wife and I remain safe.

Guess what...we have control over that, by controlling our behavior and our actions

Everyone has 'free will'....you get to choose how you play the game of life

I'm just not interested in gambling when the stakes are this high

[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by coffeebean

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?

[Girlcopper]

Originally Posted by coffeebean

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Statistics are all over the place everyday. Bottom line. Protect yourself. Protect others around you by wearing a mask and washing hands. I dont vare about statistics. I dont care if we are the highest rated for the virus or the lowest. Its here and will be for a long while. Exercise due diligence and stay healthy!

[donfey]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

Cases have everything to do with the mortality rate and here is why. In countries where there is less testing, fewer cases are discovered. Because of this, people are dying of Covid and those deaths are not recognized as Covid deaths because the people have never been tested so they are not considered a Covid death.

Here we have people that are dying of underlying conditions that have been exacerbated by Covid. In some countries if someone who has not been tested and found positive dies of a heart attack, it is listed as a heart attack death even though it may have been a Covid related death.

We also are counting the death of anyone who has Covid as a Covid death regardless of the cause of death. There have been people with Covid killed in car accidents that are listed as Covid deaths. I doubt that any other country is doing that.

Some countries such as Turkey and India, by the way, claim that they have fewer people dying because they are treating Covid patients with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc.

I know that testing has shown these meds to have no effect, but some doctors in the US and other countries claim to have has success with them.

I honestly don't know what to think.

As long as there's a political component and, sadly, there always is, the numbers will be manipulated to savor the views of the "reporter." One thing I noticed yesterday is that they reported "death WITH Covid" as opposed to death CAUSED BY Covid. It's still true that figures lie, and liars figure.

[UseYourBrain]

You are taking CDC guidelines. It is the states that are telling people how to fill out death certificates. I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid. Not FROM Covid.

[Linda Taranto]

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

[Luc582]

Originally Posted by coffeebean

There are posters on this forum that have given us many many statistics about this coronavirus, enough to make my head explode. Those numbers just go in one ear and out the other with me. But having said that, I never thought the amount of "testing" had anything to do with the actual morality rate of a population.

I found this article from the CDC which makes the calculation of mortality rate more understandable to me. End result is mortality rate is direct correlation of amount of deaths with the amount of the population, NOT the amount of testing of a population.

Principles of Epidemiology | Lesson 3 - Section 3

This simple calculation explains why the United States is NOT "the best" in the world regarding the mortality rate for Covid-19. I always knew "cases" had nothing to do with the mortality rate. It seems imperative to me that our country's mortality rate for this virus be explained in these simple terms to the person who is responsible for all Americans.

Here is a one-page report, which provides accurate data.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...e-dad298f0e060

[achan]

Thanks for the explanation!

[oldtimes]

Originally Posted by Linda Taranto

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

We have a doctor friend who told us this also. There are a lot of cases but most people who get it do not die.

[Velvet]

Originally Posted by oneclickplus

What are you talking about? It is NOT entirely in addition to other deaths. COVID-19–associated mortality is higher in persons with underlying chronic health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. A portion of this population with underlying chronic health conditions would have died even without being exposed to COVID-19.

There is a concept called "excess mortality"; that is, the additional deaths over and above the expected deaths. Not all COVID-19 deaths are "over and above" expected mortality. Therefore they do not ALL add to the number of deaths.

www [dot] cdc [dot] gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

I agree, but when would have they died? We are all going to die sometime, so do we compare that too?

I like the term “excess mortality” that would be a very relevant number with regards to Covid deaths for me.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Linda Taranto

Don't trust the numbers being published! All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital.

I wonder what their job was in the hospital or if this is just a continuation of the game of telephone.

On the first of July there were 17 people who had died from Covid-19 listed in Sumter County, Florida. It has very, very, slowly climbed to that number and held at 17 for awhile.

Today there were two added and we now stand at 40. In between we had a lot of folks came to visit folks here. We had some Fourth of July parties and out in the world people were rubbing elbows marching for BLM. A few driveway parties were held here in The Villages.

I am sure that there are some errors in the number of cases reported, but I think it is very likely that the cases of people who died from the virus may be underreported.

I am not terrified. I am not frightened. But I am not going to gather in a group for church or a party. Unless and until there is a damn satisfactory way to stop this damn bug. I am anxious for a vaccine or any medicine that will prevent or curtail the terrible inflammation and damage to the lungs and to the heart and to the circulatory system that it inflicts. I am tired of the pseudo-scientists jacking me around and telling me their implausible fairy stories. A bug is a bug. It doesn't vote. Some are damned nasty. I remember polio. When a small organism is gonna harm you bad, give it a wide berth.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

You are confusing mortality rate with IFR (infection fatality rate) The mortality rate for USA is all cause deaths divided by total population.

For instance in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,813,503
Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population

If you were to calculate current mortality rate of covid 19 in USA
Number of deaths: 159,128
Death rate: 48 deaths per 100,000 (or 0.00048 overall)

Nobody is hiding this information, it can be found for any country in the world. World in Data lists covid 19 death rate per million for every country in the world. Just click on any country. USA is not the worst in the world, currently 8th highest rate.

Total confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people - Our World in Data

Epidemiologists look at the Infection Fatality Rate which is total deaths divided by number of cases or infections. To make this accurate, they have to estimate the number of asymptomatic cases never tested and add that to the number of confirmed cases.

CDC currently states the IFR for covid 19 is 0.0065

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

The mortality rate used internationally to compare countries for the good or bad medical practices, currently lists the US about 15 away from the MOST OR WORSE mortality rate. We are somewhat better than Brazil, but worse than Canada.
The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%
If you were to make some assumptions and project no vaccine for 2 years and many anti-vaccers after that. Then included not ONLY those that would die, but ALSO added those who almost died with torturous pain, plus many who will have lifelong lingering problems. Then give you about 10% of all cases die or have BIG problems.
Note : it is NOT black or white, die or live. there is a gray unknown area of torture. That is why overall it is VERY bad to line up your beliefs with the so called "DOWNPLAYERS".

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by JoelJohnson

A better indication is outcomes. There are only two outcomes recovered and death. Add them together, you get Total outcomes, divide by number of deaths, you get a very real death rate.

I am sorry but it is MORE than die or live. There are lingering after affects that have re-hospitalized some people. And some who later died. Some go home with a trach, a hose in your throat. Later they get blood clots.

[jimjamuser]

With respect to post # 30, we in TV land have NOT been spared yet. To early to say that. We are in maybe the 2nd inning of this Plague.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Choro&Swing

Thanks for sharing. It’s pretty complicated, isn’t it? If we are measuring how many people out of 100,000 (Based on the entire population) have DIED of the virus, that’s useful, but if we only count those for were tested and found to be positive instead of those who have the symptoms but the test results didn’t come back in time or weren’t tested at all, we will have different numbers. If we exclude those who had pre-existing conditions but might have lived several more years, we are also inaccurate. If we try to measure how many people who have been diagnosed by testing actually die, then an area where almost everyone is tested, so lots of minor cases are caught, will have a very different result from one where very few tests are available, so only people with clear symptoms are tested to be certain. That wouldn’t be a case of trying to cheat on the statistics, but simply availability and the time it takes to get answers. Still, it’s infuriating to have to wait ten or twelve days for an answer, isn’t it?

The argument that the reason more people are being diagnosed is simply because more people are being tested, is partly right, in that if we didn’t test anyone and insisted that only those who tested positive could be counted, then we would officially have no new cases. But that’s a perfect example of the ostrich with its head in the sand approach. The counter-argument is clear: if we test more people and they are found positive, it is only because they ARE positive. We can’t really know from that alone if the frequency or ease of contracting the virus is increasing. We know only that more cases are being discovered because we are testing more. Given that we now know that many people who have the virus have no symptoms, it may be that it is no easier to catch now than a few months ago. We just know that it is continuing to spread. The numbers are rising, quite rapidly in some areas. To deny that there are a lot more cases but that instead there is just more testing ignores the fact that whichever is the case, a lot of people have this.

One thing about testing is that as we discover more cases and do the math to find the percentage of positive people who are hospitalized or who die, the mortality rate is dropping. Some sources think the mortality rate of the bubonic plague was around 40% of those who caught it, and the mortality rate of those with the pneumonic version (which is the main way people are catching Covid-19) was around 95%. By contrast, what are the current figures in this country for those who have it who die of it? One in twenty? (I’m really not sure of the figures right now.) Imagine if 40% of those who got it died! Would we be arguing over the need for masks?

Good post. informative. Great conclusion!