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Mortality Rate of the Virus

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Old 08-06-2020, 01:01 PM
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I’m very concerned about bypassing CDC ... the more transparency the more control we have over this virus. Why would anyone not want to have as much information as possible? Ignorance can kill. Now I’m starting to feel uneasy about actual case counts in Florida.
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Old 08-06-2020, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by jimjamuser View Post
The mortality rate normally used is total deaths divided by total cases. As of today that would be 161,941deaths divided by 4,992,027 cases = 3.2%
3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.
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Old 08-06-2020, 01:36 PM
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What would you rather do?
1. Wear a mask to protect yourself, family, friends, loved ones and others from catching and continue the spreading of a highly contagious virus?

2. Not take recommended precautions driven by science, infect your loved ones, spread disease, be hospitalized, breathe through a ventilator and incur massive hospital bills by not wearing a mask, etc.?
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:07 PM
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Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
3.2% mortality rate is nonsense. Every Doctor and scientists in the world knows that there is a huge amount of asymptomatic cases out there that are never tested BECAUSE THEY DO NOT GET SICK. You have to assume a number of asymptomatics in order to calculate the true mortality or fatality rate of the disease.

The CDC currently states that the current Infection Mortality rate for USA is 0.65% and that is estimating asymptomatics as only 40% which many scientists think is low.

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Scroll down to Table 1. This is what our top epidemiologists say. Don't be a science denialist.
Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:14 PM
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I don't feel any need to explain every youtube video. Please read the CDC's guidelines in the PDF I linked to.
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by jimjamuser View Post
Let's try the KISS principle. And talk about motivation, the WHY? I understand WHY I am concerned about the risks of CV. I don't understand the WHY behind downplaying those same risks? If I am correct, I have a good chance of saving my life and others by "modeling" mask wearing. If I am wrong, no big deal. The opposite choice is a big deal - many die and are tortured as they die and later in life. To me, that is a big risk and a bad risk calculation. So, I MUST ask WHY downplay??????
So you're saying the CDC is downplaying the risks and mortality rate? Because I am using their numbers.

Here is their contact info, better let them know they are "downplayers" and doing it wrong.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA 30329
800-CDC-INFO | (800-232-4636) | TTY: (888) 232-6348
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Old 08-06-2020, 03:52 PM
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Originally Posted by roscoguy View Post
Now, I know a woman whose ex-husband's new girlfriend once dated the third cousin of a guy named Lenny who overheard a couple of surgeons who said...

Sorry, but this is really no more than another rumor or misunderstanding.
The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

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Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

This woman is an example of a death that appears to be “with” COVID: The woman “suffered an unwitnessed fall on July 8… imaging studies showed subarachnoid hemorrhage and subdural hematoma… While in the hospital, [She] underwent routine testing for COVID-19 and was found to be positive on the same day, although she was asymptomatic… [She] remained asymptomatic and required no breathing treatments, nor did she display any respiratory distress… [She] was transferred into a COVID-19 bed at [hospice] on July 10… remained at the center until her death on July 12. Her medical history included anemia, dementia, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, hypothyroid, and multiple falls.”

Another case at Shands, a 35-year-old male, was listed as a Dade County death from COVID-19: “[The decedent] was working on the roof of a home in Middleburg on 5/28. It started to rain and the decedent and his coworkers stopped working. Bystanders in the neighborhood and the workers on the roof observed a flash of lighting and heard a loud explosion, and several workers were thrown off of the roof. Immediately following the lighting strike, a worker on the roof observed the decedent collapse, fall off of the roof, and land facedown on grass. The decedent’s muscles were reported to be contracted and shaking, and caused the decedent’s body to roll over onto his backside. It was also reported by the workers that the decedent’s eyeballs were rolled back into his skull. Bystanders in the neighborhood observed the decedent on the ground, called 911, and started CPR until EMS arrived on scene. Following the lightning strike, the workers observed a large hole on the roof that appeared burnt. According to medical records, the decedent was transported via EMS to Orange Park Medical Center and was found to have spinal fractures with spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture, and pulmonary contusions. He was transferred on the same day to UF Health Shands Hospital for further management and was admitted to the surgical intensive care unit on mechanical ventilation. He tested positive for the COVID-19 virus on 5/29 and was transferred to the medical intensive care unit. In addition to acute hypoxic respiratory failure and neurogenic shock, he was found to have a subarachnoid hemorrhage, bilateral pulmonary contusions, C3 & C7 spinous process fractures, complete T4 spinal cord transection, a skull base fracture. Trauma surgery, neurosurgery, and neurocritical care continued to follow the decedent and the decedent’s condition did not improve. Examinations were consistent with severe hypoxic brain injury and his prognosis was poor. The decedent’s family elected to transition to full comfort measures on 6/9 and he was pronounced dead on 6/9.”

Local COVID-19 death certificates all show multiple co-morbidities - Alachua Chronicle

So, not all rumors as it turns out.
  #53  
Old 08-07-2020, 06:22 AM
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Shouldn't population density also be a factor in the number of cases? It seems to me that in places where people are packed together that there would be more cases.

It seems that total population, population density, health care quality and a number of other factors need to me considered when developing any kind of opinion about a pandemic.

I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.
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  #54  
Old 08-07-2020, 07:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
The CDC website has 3,721 death certificates in the COVID count which also list "intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events"

Attachment 85652

Here are a couple dubious covid 19 deaths uncovered in Florida

...

...

So, not all rumors as it turns out.
There is no doubt in my mind that there are errors and some outright fraud in reporting hospitalizations or even possibly deaths related to COVID-19. There are also cases that are correctly reported as death with COVID-19, as opposed to from COVID-19 as in one of the cases you cite. The posts I responded to said "I know people directly involved in Florida and they are counting all deaths WITH Covid" & "All hospital deaths are being counted as COVID. If someone dies from an accident, they are tested for Covid-19. If the test is positive, they say the death is from Covid-19. I heard this from a source who works in a hospital." The first statement is actually OK, as long as they don't include these with the 'from COVID' results. The second is just extremely unlikely: ALL deaths are recorded as from COVID-19? I can't even imagine what hospital would attempt that level of fraud or for what purpose. And, both of these posts are of the 'I know someone who told me' variety & can't be accepted as fact without more info. That was the basis of my "rumor" comment, not each and every individual case.
  #55  
Old 08-07-2020, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr View Post
I also have to wonder that if, as some people believe, that this was a deliberate attack by China on the US, that China would have planted seeds at different times in several different areas of the US.
That's the real question isn't it: why? The how and the who is just scenery for the public. Bat virus, Wet Market, Trump, WHO, keeps 'em guessing like some kind of parlor game, prevents 'em from asking the most important question: why? Why was there a Pandemic? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? Who?
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