[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by TomPerrett

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days. I guess that's why the CDC and everybody else have people quarantine for 14 days right? So there's still a chance they can still spread the disease? LOL

Might want to notify John Hopkins about this, since their study and many others confirmed the following.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days. Overall, fewer than 2.5 percent of infected people started showing symptoms within 2.2 days, and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Please cite the scientific paper that shows time between exposure to symptoms is 12 to 14 days.

The researchers found that the average time it took for symptoms to appear was 5.5 days, and the median—or midpoint by which half of the people who developed symptoms had started to feel sick—was 5.1 days...and 97.5 percent had developed symptoms within 11.5 days.[/url]

I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by LiverpoolWalrus

I admire your perseverance on this timeline thing. OK, we accept the average and median are 5.5 and 5.1 days respectively. But as you know, by definition, there are going to be x number of days that fall outside that average and median. Your own post cites up to 12 days (rounded). Given that the esteemed JH cites up to 12 days, I'll go with that.

A median of 5.1 days means there are as many days less than 5 as there are days more than 5. The fewest number of days for symptoms to occur is 2 according to what I've read, so adding 3 to 5.1 gives you 8.1 days. For fans of medians, I'd say a good estimate of onset of symptoms would be 2 to 8 days.

Yes, 2-8 days is a good estimate, but the highest number of symptomatic cases will be found from 5-6 days from exposure because that's where the median and average are located.

[Altavia]

Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. A bit troubling, but not unexpected.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Robbie0723

Since the majority of new cases are younger people, I'm afraid the risk of exposure to non-symptomatic individuals has increased significantly.

Yes, and the average age of protesters is mid 20s. A higher percentage of young covid positives are also asymptomatic.

The protests started in Minneapolis on May 26, rest of cities followed suit starting May 27, so those saying it takes more days to show symptoms, get tested, get results are not disproving that protests are the source for the spikes starting June 12.

[thevillages2013]

They are having sex with strangers again and then like a pregnancy test they are getting a COVID test

[tvbound]

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by tvbound

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

If enough people will follow the guidelines...we should be OK.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Originally Posted by tvbound

It sure would be more comforting, if the number of cases and deaths were going down faster or at least staying even.

Instead of those areas, where they seem to be increasing.

Here's hoping The Villages gets as lucky this time around as the first.

For Sumter county, where most Villagers reside, here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

Home | Florida Department of Health COVID-19 Outbreak

0
0
1
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
1

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases. Seems pretty stable - not a bad reading for the Villages.

And as Goodlife would say, it's because there were no protests in the Villages. In any case, it doesn't appear the reopening is having an adverse effect on the Villages, based on these data.

[davem4616]

from what I've been reading it seems like the huge numbers are coming from Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties

we all know what we need to do to stay safe

we all have free will...hopefully we also have good judgment

this is not over

[GoodLife]

New study on Italy shows 70% of covid 19 positives under age 60 are asymptomatic.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2006/2006.08471.pdf

Median age of Florida positives is dropping a lot



Percent of deaths per case is also dropping (blue line)



So the spike we are seeing is mostly younger people. They think they are invulnerable, don't wear masks a lot, and also like to participate in protests, go to bars etc. Average age of protesters is mid 20s.

Death count lags positive tests by 3-4 weeks, I don't expect a lot of deaths from these spikes as it is mostly younger people, but they can spread it to us and are often asymptomatic. Beware the MIllennials

[sallybowron]

How would we know?

[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by sallybowron

How would we know?

How would you know what?

[Bay Kid]

The media, traveling and protest?