[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by bmit16

14 days is the max incubation time. George Floyd died on May 25th Memorial day. The protest started the next night May 26th. The op said the spikes started occuring around June 12th That is 18 days after the protest. The protest got more intense in the days following his death and are still going. I would say it is reasonable to assume the protest are playing a much bigger part than people want to admit.

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

[billethkid]

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com

Did anyone see the beaches on Memorial Day , how about Texas where they barely closed down all has anyone looked at the map why are there not spikes in Nee York City , Boston’s there will be cases from marches, but there will b from many other irresponsible behavior . It’s scary to think that you can show what a good American you are by not wearing a mask

I put that in the same category as people who choose to call those of us who subscribe to the CDC guidelines or staying home as "scared"....

that being self indulgent BS!

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Some abstract math-type verbiage (meaning - no numbers, you can look it up if you need to):

Memorial Day: typical day for LARGE GROUPS of people to gather and celebrate stuff. BIG huge family day, neighborhood cookout day, store sales day.

The days after Memorial Day - those are the days where everyone who became infected ON Memorial Day return to their usual businesses of living life, and infect anyone who wasn't at their celebration days before.

THIS recent Memorial Day: the same time that some of the restrictions were lifted and people were given the go-ahead to "not stay at home."

Potential result: people who were infected on Memorial Day, spread their virus exponentially that day, because it was Memorial Day. And then the lifted restrictions allowed everyone who became infected, to infect other people.

Thus - the spike.

Again - protests played a part. But the most prevalent spikes have occurred, at least in Florida, primarily in counties where the spikes were prevalent prior to George Floyd's death. And so - those spikes would've happened even if George Floyd didn't get killed.
Maybe not AS MUCH as they did since he was killed. But they still would've happened.

The spikes were caused by the state relaxing restrictions and people refusing to social distance - at WHATEVER venue they attended.

I think you need to look at actual data on when the large spikes happened. In most counties it started on June 12, look it up on Florida dashboard. Floyd died on May 25. Protests followed that date with some of the largest in Florida on June 6 and 7

Spike dates

Orange and Hillsborough June 10
Dade and Palm Beach June 12
Broward June 15

Might want to look things up before leaping.

[LiverpoolWalrus]

Here is the percent positive (rounded to the nearest whole number) among people being tested the first time, from the FL Department of Health from June 6 to yesterday (June 6 at the top of the list):

3
4
4
5
6
5
6
4
5
7
10
9
10

This is the number of positive cases divided by the number of tests that day. It's considered a much better metric than the number of positive cases.

Goodlife, I'm not convinced it's possible to identify one cause over another. If the upsurge is from the protests, it's going to have the same effect as if it came from relaxing restrictions. Exponential spread starting with the protests is going to continue to work its way through the population just the same as if it started with bars and restaurants, so I'm not sure what you're trying to say.

Only if the "protest effect" petered out over time, with a corresponding drop in the numbers would we be able to attribute the current spike to the protests. But I don't see that happening given the exponential nature of how the virus is spread.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

And no matter what......we will all think the spike in cases of Covid-19 in Florida, is caused by a lot of unnecessary "fannin' around" with people who are standing way too close to you. If you think marching is a good thing, it isn't likely you are going to blame marching. If you think going to church is a good thing, you aren't going to blame going to church. Ditto the drinking with friends at a local bar and gathering for a meal inside anywhere. If you think the virus is a hoax and a conspiracy, you will not get sick no matter what you do, and what I choose to wear to your funeral is not going to matter to you, or the fact that I am not even thinking to go to your funeral since you are acting so damn stupid..and I couldn't go anyway because of social distancing which may not stop the mess but it won't hurt.

I don't mean YOU Orange Blossom Baby...I mean you as in people in general.

That's actually...a good post.


.

[charlieo1126@gmail.com]

Protest outside with mask bad for out health , I’m sure there some truth to that , but most here don’t have a problem with a massive indoor rally with no masks required in a city with a big spike in cases . Hmmmm makes you wonder

[PugMom]

Originally Posted by PennBF

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

excellent post, but idk if Fl can actually perform a lot of these tests. it would take a significant effort to acquire that many kits & can you imagine how long those lines would be? lol. it would start a brand new thread

[Northwoods]

Originally Posted by TomPerrett

The only problem with your report is that the the time between exposure and symptoms of COVID 19 is 12 to 14 days not 5 to 10 days.
But of course you can’t attribute the spike to the protest if you deal with the facts. Fiction is good though.

Here is a quote from Harvard Health. Just dealing with the FACTS...

"How long is it between when a person is exposed to the virus and when they start showing symptoms?

Recently published research found that on average, the time from exposure to symptom onset (known as the incubation period) is about five to six days. However, studies have shown that symptoms could appear as soon as three days after exposure to as long as 13 days later. These findings continue to support the CDC recommendation of self-quarantine and monitoring of symptoms for 14 days post exposure."