[JRcorvette]

Originally Posted by gatorbill1

I moved to all cash and some short term bond funds recently. Scary right now and next year. I can't afford a big loss but I can live with very small gains.

Me too… I have more that 50% in cash and annuities. The rest is in various ETF sector funds. I took a big hit yesterday.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by rustyp

I'm looking at subtracting inflation from those numbers. Inflation since 2019 (5 yr) +23.4%.

Inflation: I paid $9.98 plus sale tax for 12 Jumbo cage free eggs yesterday. I am in CA for part of the holidays and it is pricier here than in Sumter County but still!!!

My portfolio has taken quite a hit, too. Glad I have kept so much in T-bills.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Appears the Fed is forecasting crude price reduction induced slower inflation in the future, and started focusing on the employment level, which is being affected by the slowness of the housing industry, and the resulting durable goods growth. Consumable goods should stay relatively strong due to salary increases being higher than goods inflation.

The market is reacting to a bit of over leveraged optimism of future growth, based upon local results. However, this little equity tantrum has both a bit of interest rate rise / bond price decline towards future growth, which is really the bond markets view of the debt and government spending and borrowing under the new administration. Although the view of reducing govt spending is ideal, the results and other issues like tax rate adjustments might just make the issue worse, depending upon timing and implementation of new rates.

I would posit that the government spending debt levels and the change of government leadership has a bit more influence on the future uncertainty of a major portion of market returns going forward. Remember that if government spending falls, GDP will contract / fall as well. See Argentina. . . right now both bonds and stocks are overvalued, so there is only money market to hide out in. . which has a positive return versus some other investments..

so be careful what you wish for. .

Many threads here one sells houses when the prices are very high and can rent and then buy again when house prices are low. many threads are waiting for lower prices to buy. . same with stocks in qualified accounts where there are no tax consequences. Remember, the future is uncertain, just more uncertain that at other times.

[dewilson58]

[QUOTE=kkingston57;2394928]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Today was emotional

Sad part is this emotional sell off took 2-3 hours.

Not all knee jerking is quick.

Plus you have "year-end close outs............brokers closing out positions to show customers why they earning 1.5% commission.

[manaboutown]

Some tax loss harvesting going on for sure. Investment Losses in 2024? Vanguard Emphasizes the Value of Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategy

[dewilson58]

Shut It down.

[dewilson58]

Inflation May Continue To Play a Role in the Market

The Market May Face a Bubble Zone

Those Who Keep Things Simple Will Get Ahead

Increased Debt Will Continue To Stymie Investors

Investors With a Long-Term Approach Will Continue To Be Successful

[Caymus]

Market survived "triple witching" today.

Looking at something more stable, like "Banana Wall Art"

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Shut It down.

Darn...........Funding bill passed.

[dewilson58]

Well we are off the historical high of the Shiller without a big sell-off.
Everyone feeling better???

Slight drop in the S&P PE.
Anyone feeling better???

Is the Magnificent Seven driving the craziness???
Without them, is the ratio much more historical???

[bopat]

It's pretty easy.
Buy low. Sell high.

[ithos]

Apple'''s '''decidedly unattractive''' outlook sparks rare bearish call on the stock | Morningstar

Analyst cited lowest growth rate among the "Magnificent 7" but sports the highest PE.

But investors didn't overreact in part because it has pulled back over the last couple of weeks. Also in the USA it is sort of a status symbol, has great features for social interaction and a cultish customer base that will never go Android. Don't know Europe but China will be tough going forward.

It will be interesting to see whether Apple or Samsung will have the best AI features in the next generation.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

been in all cash since december,
valuations are very high in the MAG 7, which is driving the market both up and down
passive investments drive valuations higher and increase risk to the market, proven research

interest rates are rising,

economic uncertainty is very high at the moment
inflation has been very sticky, and will only get worse with tariffs
how much worse is currently unknown, but not a non event.

there have been 5 years of back to back 20% gains in the SP500
the following two years returns for all of them have been mediocre

AI will displace tech workers primarily, and some other workers,
putting upward pressure on social spending support, putting downward price
pressure on housing.

What's good for companies is not good for employees. .
Employees buy the stuff which companies produce. .
its a feedback loop which has limits.

And ignoring the rising instability in the world? at some point, something might get out of control, we're talking hoomans here, the irrational kind

Just saying the machine learning investment algorythms I follow are mostly in cash

Bonds are a hedge for market corrections
Stocks are not a hedge for interest rates increases.

good luck

former finance guy

[JRcorvette]

I am not worried about running out of money… unless I am heavily invested in the Market and it takes a big dump. That is why I am heavy in Cash and Annuities.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by JRcorvette

I am not worried about running out of money… unless I am heavily invested in the Market and it takes a big dump. That is why I am heavy in Cash and Annuities.

Nor am I. Of my stock/bond/money market portfolio I am now about 40% cash, 60% equities. 75% of my assets are in real estate, mostly commercial properties, and the rents keep coming in although rental income in 2024 was a little down from that of 2023.