[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

True, but a lot of people lost almost their entire retirement savings by selling low in the 1987 crash, and were afraid to go back into the stock market when it started to go back up. Trying to time the market is a bad idea. I have always invested in the stock market using the "dollar cost averaging" method and with a "buy and hold" plan, and I never had more than about 40 percent of my investments in stocks.

I keep more than 40% as I can deal with risk and think of the long term. Dollar cost averaging is a great way to invest.

[55&Out]

I'm mostly in cash however my long-term bond holdings are getting killed. I believe this market has room to fall much further. The Fed has clearly voiced they will continue to implement QT. My strategy is patience and defense. I'm thinking it's a bear market for another 8-12 months, possibly longer. Wage slaves are getting killed by inflation, retail inventories are high, big-ticket purchases are down, car repos are extremely high... Think it's bad now? Just wait until layoffs start and the banks stop lending. Regular folks will be ground to a nub.

That said, wake me up when home prices in The Villages drop 40% or more...

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The one wild card, which is unknowable, due to a human decision, (humans mess all good things up) is a nuclear missile hit/use by Putin. probability very low, but not zero, and slowing increasing if Putin's war continues to make no progress or goes in reverse in Putin's mind. Our minds makes no difference to a man determined to have irrational goals. For that reason, people in retirement should NOT have 100% in stocks, but if aggressive in retirement 2/3 to 3/4 is a maximum in my opinion, and have a small hedging program to temper losses.

There will be signs for buying near the bottom, the Atlanta fed has a GDP forecast model, which is currently near 0 or negative, and one can watch that for some nation wide growth.

GDPNow -
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

This interest rate action will kill off zombie companies, and those are the ones which there is more debt service than cash flow / earnings, and they will go bankrupt due to the cost of debt is too high borrow to continue operations. The big caps with a good balance sheet will survive.

Once the bankruptcies start, we are near a bottom.

Once a big bankruptcy happens, there is a contagion fear which will cause an emotional sell off, and then when it stops falling for a week to a month, that is a quiet cow bell.

There are interest rate spreads which will stop widening and then start to close.

There are market technical analysis which can easily identify market corners. . . new high/ lows is less than 0.5% and then ticks back up with prices rise above the 10, then 50 then 200 day moving average.

There is the historical 50% correction off the top, which I will buy at least 1/2 of my cash / bonds, no matter what because the downside is so limited from there, unless there is nuclear winter. My target from the start has been 1800/2000 SP500 go all in and mortgage the house, which is combination of earnings forecast and low P/E ratio applied.

There will be the price of oil will bottom due to minimal economic activity, and then start to rise. The fed publishes highway milage usage by vehicles, and that will stop falling and tick up.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (TRFVOLUSM227NFWA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
A downturn in travel of pandemic proportions | FRED Blog


There are measures of sentiment, which highly correlates with major tops and bottoms. The farther the price falls, sentiment just measures the emotional duration of the trend, the longer the trend the stronger the belief in persistence. high prices causes me to fear loss, low prices has a small probability of loss and a high probability of gain, but that is not the emotional measurement of trend, that is a proper investment mind set, no different that high/low prices at the grocery store for your favorite food, such as steak. $50 per pound for rib eye is a pass for me, $20 per pound is an occasional purchase. $5 per pound I buy a freezer and fill it up. Same theory applied to stocks.

Still short MTCH from about 67, RUN is flat but looks more profitable by the end of year and AN is closed out with a 2 point gain. I would have shorted CVNA above 40, but my job is cray-cray at the moment, with 8 out of 10 being new people in my department. AN is still a good short, but there are other better zombies. BYND had no short shares available, so I had to pass months ago. still none

Had an order for SPY puts several weeks ago but the price was above the current market, and it never filled . . now I hate my 9-5 job which I could care less about if they fire me. .

FYI, my idol, Cassandra, aka last name Burry, you can figure me out from there.

finance guy,

and yes people time the market for a living all the time. People with whom I am acquainted have perfected timing models with 10-20 years of data, where the returns are huge. However, the model doesn't scale to fund size dollars, so its for the little guy to make serious money, going long and short.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

The one wild card, which is unknowable, due to a human decision, (humans mess all good things up) is a nuclear missile hit/use by Putin. probability very low, but not zero, and slowing increasing if Putin's war continues to make no progress or goes in reverse in Putin's mind. Our minds makes no difference to a man determined to have irrational goals. For that reason, people in retirement should NOT have 100% in stocks, but if aggressive in retirement 2/3 to 3/4 is a maximum in my opinion, and have a small hedging program to temper losses.

There will be signs for buying near the bottom, the Atlanta fed has a GDP forecast model, which is currently near 0 or negative, and one can watch that for some nation wide growth.

GDPNow -
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

This interest rate action will kill off zombie companies, and those are the ones which there is more debt service than cash flow / earnings, and they will go bankrupt due to the cost of debt is too high borrow to continue operations. The big caps with a good balance sheet will survive.

Once the bankruptcies start, we are near a bottom.

Once a big bankruptcy happens, there is a contagion fear which will cause an emotional sell off, and then when it stops falling for a week to a month, that is a quiet cow bell.

There are interest rate spreads which will stop widening and then start to close.

There are market technical analysis which can easily identify market corners. . . new high/ lows is less than 0.5% and then ticks back up with prices rise above the 10, then 50 then 200 day moving average.

There is the historical 50% correction off the top, which I will buy at least 1/2 of my cash / bonds, no matter what because the downside is so limited from there, unless there is nuclear winter. My target from the start has been 1800/2000 SP500 go all in and mortgage the house, which is combination of earnings forecast and low P/E ratio applied.

There will be the price of oil will bottom due to minimal economic activity, and then start to rise. The fed publishes highway milage usage by vehicles, and that will stop falling and tick up.

Vehicle Miles Traveled (TRFVOLUSM227NFWA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
A downturn in travel of pandemic proportions | FRED Blog


There are measures of sentiment, which highly correlates with major tops and bottoms. The farther the price falls, sentiment just measures the emotional duration of the trend, the longer the trend the stronger the belief in persistence. high prices causes me to fear loss, low prices has a small probability of loss and a high probability of gain, but that is not the emotional measurement of trend, that is a proper investment mind set, no different that high/low prices at the grocery store for your favorite food, such as steak. $50 per pound for rib eye is a pass for me, $20 per pound is an occasional purchase. $5 per pound I buy a freezer and fill it up. Same theory applied to stocks.

Still short MTCH from about 67, RUN is flat but looks more profitable by the end of year and AN is closed out with a 2 point gain. I would have shorted CVNA above 40, but my job is cray-cray at the moment, with 8 out of 10 being new people in my department. AN is still a good short, but there are other better zombies. BYND had no short shares available, so I had to pass months ago. still none

Had an order for SPY puts several weeks ago but the price was above the current market, and it never filled . . now I hate my 9-5 job which I could care less about if they fire me. .

FYI, my idol, Cassandra, aka last name Burry, you can figure me out from there.

finance guy,

and yes people time the market for a living all the time. People with whom I am acquainted have perfected timing models with 10-20 years of data, where the returns are huge. However, the model doesn't scale to fund size dollars, so its for the little guy to make serious money, going long and short.

Since the last paragraph is directed at my previous comments (no problem I enjoy the discussion) I find it hard to believe. If timing models were accurate it would be an indicator for getting into the market and would be readily available for people to buy. In other words sorry do not believe it.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Since the last paragraph is directed at my previous comments (no problem I enjoy the discussion) I find it hard to believe. If timing models were accurate it would be an indicator for getting into the market and would be readily available for people to buy. In other words sorry do not believe it.

The reason is that it doesn't scale as finance doesn't scale well at all.
That's fine, everyone is entitled to their opinions, and Stu and I have a future dinner date,
maybe this October as we will be down for three weeks.

guy

[PugMom]

Originally Posted by Caymus

I always considered Cramer to be an entertainer. Some of his rants are amusing. I wonder how much money he makes directly from his CNBC "Investing Club" fees?

jim cramer rants - Bing video

not for nothing, but i always preferred Stu Varney. i've followed his advice a couple times & it turned out well. he's less of an entertainer, but pretty accurate nonetheless

[manaboutown]

Well, I am about 40% cash (short term T-bills), 60% stocks, 80% of which I bought years ago for far less than I could sell them for today. Most of my investment portfolio remains in commercial real estate the value of which is also affected although I have been able to increase rental income each year. Interesting times...

[Bay Kid]

My TIPS is doing real well. I don't look at the others. They are long term strong companies.

[Boomer]

So….any thoughts on what bricks-and-mortar banks will be doing with CD rates? And when?

I sure would like to see some kind of return on money in the bank.

Thoughts? Theories? Anyone?

Boomer

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by Boomer

So….any thoughts on what bricks-and-mortar banks will be doing with CD rates? And when?

I sure would like to see some kind of return on money in the bank.

Thoughts? Theories? Anyone?

Boomer

To me, bank CDs don't make sense and they haven't for at least 20 years. My "go to" place to check on the highest current rates is Penfed.org. It is a credit union that is always competitive with bank CDs. Their current rate for a 3-year or 5-year CD is 3.25 percent. I would rather take a small risk and invest in the Vanguard short term bond index fund that is paying 3.81 percent, and has more liquidity than a CD. The Vanguard money market fund, with no risk, is paying 2.52 percent. I stay away from bank CDs altogether because, unlike 30 years ago, the banks will not give you a good deal because they don't need your deposit.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Since the last paragraph is directed at my previous comments (no problem I enjoy the discussion) I find it hard to believe. If timing models were accurate it would be an indicator for getting into the market and would be readily available for people to buy. In other words sorry do not believe it.

"timing models" ARE fairly accurate and are certainly "available for people to buy". Just research chart patterns or technical analysis. The question is how reliable are these tools. My guess would be 75% of the time if you were very experienced but that still leaves the other 25% as being inaccurate, which could obviously result in huge losses. Either way, you are correct in being skeptical when people purport to have "perfected" the process or guarantee huge returns for the "little guy".

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

To me, bank CDs don't make sense and they haven't for at least 20 years. My "go to" place to check on the highest current rates is Penfed.org. It is a credit union that is always competitive with bank CDs. Their current rate for a 3-year or 5-year CD is 3.25 percent. I would rather take a small risk and invest in the Vanguard short term bond index fund that is paying 3.81 percent, and has more liquidity than a CD. The Vanguard money market fund, with no risk, is paying 2.52 percent. I stay away from bank CDs altogether because, unlike 30 years ago, the banks will not give you a good deal because they don't need your deposit.

That does appear to be the better deal and there are no fees or cost associated with stock choices?

I did find online rates for cds including 3.65%/5 yrs and 3.55%/3 yrs. It’s not enough to cover inflation but better than a sharp stick in the eye, (stock loss). It will be interesting to see what cd rates due after October 1st.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Aces4

That does appear to be the better deal and there are no fees or cost associated with stock choices?

I did find online rates for cds including 3.65%/5 yrs and 3.55%/3 yrs. It’s not enough to cover inflation but better than a sharp stick in the eye, (stock loss). It will be interesting to see what cd rates due after October 1st.

Seems like banks neither need or want our short term money right now so they pay accordingly. Tying up our money long term at much lower than inflation rates does not appeal to me so we are still mostly in mutual funds but rather conservative ones like value and dividend growth.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Seems like banks neither need or want our short term money right now so they pay accordingly. Tying up our money long term at much lower than inflation rates does not appeal to me so we are still mostly in mutual funds but rather conservative ones like value and dividend growth.

We ladder our cds, have no fees, no investment people with which to deal and we love the FDIC. It works for us but we all have different tolerances for investing.

[Boomer]

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