[EdFNJ]

Originally Posted by chet2020

According to an antibody study of Miami-Dade County, 6% of the residents there were exposed enough to the virus to generate antibodies. This was 15X the number of positive virus tests. So you could crudely guess your odds of contracting the virus is 0.4% - if you lived in Miami-Dade County. TV is not as "hot" as Miami-Dade, so lower your odds further, and social distancing lowers your odds way further.

You might want to INCREASE your odds by the number of people who are carriers and have never been tested because they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic. And NO ONE knows yet if having antibodies means bupkis.*



*Define Bupkis Bupkis means absolutely nothing. It comes from the Yiddish bobkes, meaning nonsense or nothing, and it emerged in English during the early 20th century. It began as North American Jewish slang, but it’s now used more broadly, often for humorous effect

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by EdFNJ

You might want to INCREASE your odds by the number of people who are carriers and have never been tested because they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic. And NO ONE knows yet if having antibodies means bupkis.*

Not specifically for COVID-19, but it's a good bet that the presence of antibodies confers immunity. In general, IgM antibodies speak for a recent infection and IgG antibodies for long term immunity. The long term immunity tends to wane over time but is generally good for quite a while. Polio----pretty much lifetime immunity. Diphtheria---used to be thought to be lifelong but now adults should get a booster if they are going to be in close contact with infants. Tetanus---good for 5-10 years. MMR ---good long term, but since these are generally childhood illnesses it doesn't come up much in adults. Hepatitis B---seems to be a little difference between immunity from having had the disease vs. the recombinant vaccine but also long term.

So, it's a pretty good bet that anyone testing positive for IgG antibodies for Covid-19 is immune, the question will be for how long?

[VillageIdiots]

Originally Posted by alwann

Did the Sun jump the gun? There's a full page listing in the Sun today of all the acts booked for the squares starting May 1. But virus experts are saying keep social distancing the norm throughout the summer. Six feet apart in the bar line. Doubtful. How's that going to work on Scooter Night? Maybe he'll create The Mask Dance. It'll be a shame to advertise the performances only to cancel them again.

Publishing the listing does not mean the squares will be open on those dates. Last month, they published the same listing for the month of April and not a single one of those bands performed. If/when the squares open at all in May, the listing provides the bands you should see on each square on those dates. If they don't open at all, then it was a wasted page of paper. NOTHING here opens before 5/4, so we already know the first few days of that schedule are wasted ink.

I sit back and watch this site and the social media posts and am amazed at how many health experts and doctors the world has gained in only the past couple of months. I'm not trying to become one of those. However, we can't possibly calculate an accurate infection rate or a true mortality rate until further testing is done of the asymptomatic population - not everyone, but enough to base statistical calculations on. Right now, there is only one known value for the mortality rate equation and that's the number of deaths. In places where they have done further testing, it is becoming abundantly clear that many more people have been exposed and infected than anyone thought. This is actually a good thing in a couple of ways: 1 - greater probability of herd immunity going forward and, 2 - the mortality rate is likely much, much lower than many thought.

When the numbers are actually in, that will be the true reality check.

[chet2020]

Originally Posted by EdFNJ

You might want to INCREASE your odds by the number of people who are carriers and have never been tested because they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic. And NO ONE knows yet if having antibodies means bupkis.*

I was not speaking to antibodies conferring immunity (although I agree with Eagles). I was using positive antibody tests as a denominator for roughing out calculations. It is a fairly fixed number (that will rise over time) and it covers the scenario you allude to - that a huge number of people were exposed to the virus and never got the virus test.