[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Spalumbos62

Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

Wow.
Having a bad day, or a normal day?
Tucc provided and provides good info for Villagers.
If you don't like it, don't read it.

[chriskean82]

Been in FL 23 years now. We evacuate for any that’s going to be a Cat 1 when it reaches us. That usually means a Cat 3 when it makes landfall. We are pretty much smack in the middle of FL. So a lot of weakening before it reaches The Villages. Plus, The Villages I laid out perfectly for storms. Between underground utilities, golf courses for water run off, nothing to worry about here. Just bring in anything that could possibly take flight, have 3-7 days of supplies and you’ll be fine. I remember when Irma came through. No real homes flooding, almost no power loss, and that was a Cat 4 when it made landfall and a strong Cat 1 weak Cat 2 when it made its way across The Villages.

[Spalumbos62]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Wow.
Having a bad day, or a normal day?
Tucc provided and provides good info for Villagers.
If you don't like it, don't read it.

Has nothing to do with my day....if you read this whole thread it went back and fourth about the path of the storm. One says it was right over us, no it wasn't...yes it was....enough. sorry, but it was years ago....no one cares. What they truly care about isTuesday's weather, and with that he could be very helpful.
But thanks for inquiring about my day, otherwise (besides mild infractions from certain non helpful people), it's going great!

[Slk9786]

When was this kind of response warranted!

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Spalumbos62

Has nothing to do with my day

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

[rjm1cc]

Years ago my daughter was in college in Fl. Her first hurricane was coming. Cousin in GA police called her and said to evacuate to his home and she did. When she got back home no one else left and no problem. Next hurricane she sleep through.
The answer depends on how your area has done in the past and how likely flooding is. Seems like staying put is ok for this one.

[Ralpha]

Originally Posted by Heartnsoul

Our friends are panicking and afraid of this hurricane heading toward glad. They are ready to evacuate. I. Haven't had news on so not sure how bad it will be. Anyone updated on this?

I think it’s silly to panic over this storm. At worst, it might be a stage one hurricane, but more than likely a tropical storm. I would certainly hope that our homes are built good enough to withstand a stage one hurricane.
However, if we see that the winds are going to be severe enough to blow our lawn furniture, potted plants, etc around, we will secure them. We will rely on the media for information on what we should do.
I would suggest that we get supplies to sustain us through the storm. A few examples would be flashlights, water, non perishable food, etc.

[shideg]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Guess we will wait and panic at the last minute.

It's never too late to panic.

[tuccillo]

If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.

Originally Posted by Spalumbos62

Who cares!!!!
It was years ago...do we need a "yes"- "no" match now?
If you truly are a meteorologist, please give current info.

[vintageogauge]

It's the tornados you have to worry about not these little hurricanes.

[Nucky]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Okay, so it's normal day & attitude for you.

You are new here.............during the last breeze, Tucc removed all the media hype and many, many, many Villagers enjoyed and respected his comments and thoughts.

That's who cares.

My walk down memory lane brings me to a weather incident before Irma and we were only here about a month. We knew nobody but noticed everyone loading up to get outta town. Seeing this heightened our worry when Irma was coming toward us. Tuccillo was a major part of helping us keep our heads on. We were ready to stay and ride out the storm when we received a call from a friend who evacuated at his wife's and 95-year old mother's request to Tifton Ga.

After they arrived in Georgia he called me as said it may be a good idea to spend some time with them. We were in the car and the 5-hour ride took about 9 hours. We were and always will be grateful to them for their hospitality. The home that we arrived at had its own wing just for us. We were not roughing it at all.

My point. Everyone who lives here was new at one point. Some people are a little more stable than others. After 5 years I count myself as able to digest information from all sources and make a good decisions on my own. I didn't have that skill when I moved here.
So newbies ask all the questions you have. Many people are here to help you. For us, it was and still is Tuccillo and a few others.

People have different recollections about where they were during and after Irma and the time it was there and blah blah blah. Who cares. That one is done. Let's deal with what we have in front of us now. Let's try and be constructive with the posts in this thread.

So far it looks like we are staying. Five years ago I'd be packing the car already.

[tuccillo]

Elsa has been downgraded to a tropical storm. The forecast track (see link below) remains about the same. The hurricane center average track error is 125 miles at 3 days. Best estimate at this point is a gusty rain event for parts of Florida. However, continue to listen to the news as 3-4 days out is still a long time.

TROPICAL STORM ELSA

[Flgagg]

People have to do what makes them feel the most comfortable. Individual choice, individual decision.

[MidWestIA]

From the NWS site at the PEAK IRMA wind

Leesburg Airport Spanish Springs The Villages
Day Time Wind Day Time Wind
11 17:53 SW 17 G 28 11 17:10 E 22 G 30
11 16:53 SW 21 G 28 11 16:50 E 16 G 30
11 15:53 SW 22 G 36 11 15:50 E 20 G 29
11 14:53 SW 22 G 36 11 14:50 E 21 G 29
11 13:53 SW 26 G 39 11 13:30 E 20 G 33
11 12:53 SW 24 G 37 11 12:50 E 25 G 36
11 11:53 SW 25 G 41 11 11:50 E 22 G 37
11 10:53 SW 31 G 46 11 10:50 E 24 G 39
11 9:53 S 35 G 49 11 9:50 E 26 G 43
11 8:53 S 29 G 48 11 8:50 NE 32 G 41
11 7:53 S 33 G 52 11 7:50 NE 25 G 45
11 6:53 S 40 G 52 11 6:50 E 25 G 45
11 5:53 S 32 G 51 11 6:10 E 24 G 54
11 4:53 SE 38 G 59 11 5:50 E 31 G 43
11 3:53 SE 43 G 69 11 5:30 E 33 G 51
11 2:53 E 38 G 53 11 5:10 E 32 G 54
11 1:53 E 37 G 62 11 4:50 E 36 G 51
11 0:53 E 35 G 53 11 3:50 E 28 G 44
10 23:53 NE 31 G 48 11 2:50 NE 32 G 43
10 22:53 NE 40 G 61 11 1:50 NE 31 G 44
10 21:53 NE 41 G 59 11 0:50 NE 28 G 39
10 20:53 NE 37 G 49 10 23:50 NE 26 G 41
10 19:53 NE 24 G 43 10 22:50 NE 37 G 54
10 18:53 E 20 G 31 10 22:30 NE 28 G 41
10 17:53 NE 15 G 26 10 22:10 NE 25 G 38
10 16:53 NE 25 G 39 10 21:50 NE 28 G 45
10 21:30 NE 26 G 40
10 21:10 NE 29 G 52
10 20:50 NE 23 G 37
10 20:30 NE 22 G 35
10 20:10 NE 22 G 36
10 19:50 NE 17 G 33
10 19:30 NE 18 G 35
10 19:10 NE 20 G 29
10 18:50 NE 21 G 37
10 18:30 NE 16 G 23
10 18:10 NE 13 G 26
10 17:50 NE 18 G 28
10 17:30 NE 14 G 23
10 17:10 NE 13 G 21
10 16:50 NE 17 G 28

Originally Posted by villagetinker

If you and your friends are in the villages, this is generally regarded as 'shelter in place' location. Irma came directly over TV a few years ago, wind gusts hit around 115 MPH, somewhere around 15 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. There was very little damage, some relatively minor flooding and the major power disruptions were in the historic areas. Also, we are inland and the storms lose intensity as they move over land. IMHO, the local television stations and papers have hurricane guides follow these, we are staying put.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by MidWestIA

From the NWS site at the PEAK IRMA wind

Leesburg Airport Spanish Springs The Villages
Day Time Wind Day Time Wind
11 17:53 SW 17 G 28 11 17:10 E 22 G 30
11 16:53 SW 21 G 28 11 16:50 E 16 G 30
11 15:53 SW 22 G 36 11 15:50 E 20 G 29
11 14:53 SW 22 G 36 11 14:50 E 21 G 29
11 13:53 SW 26 G 39 11 13:30 E 20 G 33
11 12:53 SW 24 G 37 11 12:50 E 25 G 36
11 11:53 SW 25 G 41 11 11:50 E 22 G 37
11 10:53 SW 31 G 46 11 10:50 E 24 G 39
11 9:53 S 35 G 49 11 9:50 E 26 G 43
11 8:53 S 29 G 48 11 8:50 NE 32 G 41
11 7:53 S 33 G 52 11 7:50 NE 25 G 45
11 6:53 S 40 G 52 11 6:50 E 25 G 45
11 5:53 S 32 G 51 11 6:10 E 24 G 54
11 4:53 SE 38 G 59 11 5:50 E 31 G 43
11 3:53 SE 43 G 69 11 5:30 E 33 G 51
11 2:53 E 38 G 53 11 5:10 E 32 G 54
11 1:53 E 37 G 62 11 4:50 E 36 G 51
11 0:53 E 35 G 53 11 3:50 E 28 G 44
10 23:53 NE 31 G 48 11 2:50 NE 32 G 43
10 22:53 NE 40 G 61 11 1:50 NE 31 G 44
10 21:53 NE 41 G 59 11 0:50 NE 28 G 39
10 20:53 NE 37 G 49 10 23:50 NE 26 G 41
10 19:53 NE 24 G 43 10 22:50 NE 37 G 54
10 18:53 E 20 G 31 10 22:30 NE 28 G 41
10 17:53 NE 15 G 26 10 22:10 NE 25 G 38
10 16:53 NE 25 G 39 10 21:50 NE 28 G 45
10 21:30 NE 26 G 40
10 21:10 NE 29 G 52
10 20:50 NE 23 G 37
10 20:30 NE 22 G 35
10 20:10 NE 22 G 36
10 19:50 NE 17 G 33
10 19:30 NE 18 G 35
10 19:10 NE 20 G 29
10 18:50 NE 21 G 37
10 18:30 NE 16 G 23
10 18:10 NE 13 G 26
10 17:50 NE 18 G 28
10 17:30 NE 14 G 23
10 17:10 NE 13 G 21
10 16:50 NE 17 G 28

The wind was strong enough during Irma that a gust blew over a very large Live Oak Tree next to Laurel Manor. I am not good with guessing but It towered over Laurel Manor and had huge roots. It was indeed fortunate that it fell away from the building and the building had been evacuated. How tall you'all think that tree was? 90 foot???

AND I copied Tucillo's credentials. I am so grateful for his background and his experience when we are faced with these issues on the Forum. I know that even with all knowledge, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes do whatever they want to.

I tend to worry about stuff and I really didn't worry much about Irma. Elsa has NO business being here at all. She is a Snow Queen and way outa her realm.


Tucillo.

If you don't like the post then don't read it. I have given current information. You just need to read the posts. And, yes, I am a meteorologist. Undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a research scientist at NASA and the National Weather Service, where I developed numerical weather prediction computer models on supercomputers for research and operational forecasting.

I do try to provide some useful information when things get interesting. However, most of what you need to know you can obtain by watching the news.