[tuccillo]

Good question. I suspect the NHC forecasters will adopt a more easterly track with the 5AM forecast discussion and official track forecast based on the HWRF code being consistent with the latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF codes. Ideally, they would probably prefer to see another ECMWF cycle (12Z cycle) bring Irma up the east coast before jumping in. Basically, you are looking for cycle to cycle consistency. The NHC forecasters are also looking at the ensembles from both global codes to judge their reliability. Regardless, we will continue to see a rather large envelope surrounding the track at 4-5 days.

Originally Posted by Allegiance

Great info. Thanks.

You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?

I hope.

[Allegiance]

Originally Posted by villages07

Tuccillo....thanks for sharing your expertise, especially potential impacts here in TV. I find your explanations technical but very understandable. Let's all hope it turns out to sea and doesn't affect the east coast.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Lets hope. Things seem to be looking better for the villages.

Found this spaghetti model.

Irma Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Most spaghetti goes east. Thank God

[Abby10]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Good question. I suspect the NHC forecasters will adopt a more easterly track with the 5AM forecast discussion and official track forecast based on the HWRF code being consistent with the latest cycles of the NWS and ECMWF codes. Ideally, they would probably prefer to see another ECMWF cycle (12Z cycle) bring Irma up the east coast before jumping in. Basically, you are looking for cycle to cycle consistency. The NHC forecasters are also looking at the ensembles from both global codes to judge their reliability. Regardless, we will continue to see a rather large envelope surrounding the track at 4-5 days.

Fortunate to have you here on TOTV. Thank you for your updates.

[Cisco Kid]

Here is a cool page to track the Hurricane day by day. As of now it shows FL a near miss as of Sunday.

Windfinder - wind, wave & weather reports, forecasts & statistics worldwide

[tuccillo]

For the fifth cycle in a row, the NWS spectral code has taken Irma up the east coast (based on the 6Z cycle). In the 5AM forecast discussion, the NHC forecasters were not fully convinced and only adjusted the track about half way east. Here is the link:

HURRICANE IRMA

Assuming the 12Z ECMWF simulation is consistent with the 00Z simulation in bringing Irma up the coast, I would expect another shift eastward in the NHC official storm track. Early this afternoon the 12Z ECMWF simulation will be available.

The SC/GA coast may be in the crosshairs.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

This shows the latest prediction from NOAA on the storm. It's not looking good for most of Florida. But it's only a prediction and we're still three days out.

HURRICANE IRMA

[Chatbrat]

What wind speed are new houses roofs and windows rated for in TV ?

[Villager Joyce]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

For the fifth cycle in a row, the NWS spectral code has taken Irma up the east coast (based on the 6Z cycle). In the 5AM forecast discussion, the NHC forecasters were not fully convinced and only adjusted the track about half way east. Here is the link:

HURRICANE IRMA

Assuming the 12Z ECMWF simulation is consistent with the 00Z simulation in bringing Irma up the coast, I would expect another shift eastward in the NHC official storm track. Early this afternoon the 12Z ECMWF simulation will be available.

The SC/GA coast may be in the crosshairs.

I am extremely directionally challenged, but I see this coming right up the middle. What am I missing!

[asianthree]

Originally Posted by Chatbrat

What wind speed are new houses roofs and windows rated for in TV ?

We were told 120, but nothing in writing

[Allegiance]

Originally Posted by Allegiance

Lets hope. Things seem to be looking better for the villages.

Found this spaghetti model.

Irma Spaghetti Models | Cyclocane

Most spaghetti goes east. Thank God

Spaghetti is still mostly east. Just a few outliers are West. The "good" part of the storm is the west side, so if it passes east, good for us.


I hope DR. Tuccillo agrees?

[Villager Joyce]

Originally Posted by Allegiance

Spaghetti is still mostly east. Just a few outliers are West. The "good" part of the storm is the west side, so if it passes east, good for us.


I hope DR. Tuccillo agrees?

I definitely like spaghetti better

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Yes, I am here. I have a tee time on Sunday morning - I am planning on shooting even par or perhaps a few strokes over ;-)

Regarding Irma, I will wait a few more days to see how the numerical guidance firms up. There is still a lot of "slop" in the solutions. I don't believe, at this time, that there will be any reason to leave but you never know. I suggest sitting tight and watching the weather forecasts. We are still 6 days out and nothing is certain, albeit I don't like the trends.

With the possible winds, I would recommend a lower trajectory ball.

(Thanks for all your input)

[tuccillo]

The NHC forecasters had not fully adopted the thinking that the track was going to be along the east coast for the 5AM forecast discussion and track forecast. I believe the next update, assuming the 12Z ECMWF forecast agrees, will be further east. There is, of course, still some uncertainty.

Originally Posted by Villager Joyce

I am extremely directionally challenged, but I see this coming right up the middle. What am I missing!

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

With the possible winds, I would recommend a lower trajectory ball.

(Thanks for all your input)

And use your one iron.

[graciegirl]

Thank you Tuccillo.

Thinking of all of you and saying some prayers.