[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

This is the computer projections for this latest tropical storm. All but one show it going well north of TV, but several media stories are warning TV residents to exercise caution.

Looking at this, it appears that we'll get a bit of rain. According to the weather men we should all be running to the stores to stock up on milk and bread and board up all our windows.

[spring_chicken]

Sumter County
3
Hurricane Statement
4 MIN
FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-062045- TROPICAL STORM COLIN LOCAL STATEMENT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AL032016 840 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 THIS PRODUCT COVERS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA **RAINS FROM COLIN SPREADING OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - NONE * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER...PINELLAS...LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO... PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL MANATEE... COASTAL SARASOTA * STORM INFORMATION: - ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FL OR ABOUT 290 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FL - 26.4N 87.3W - STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH - MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ TROPICAL STORM COLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...APPROACHING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * FLOODING RAIN: PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE: - MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES. - RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW. - FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS. SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES. * WIND: PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS WIND HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE: - SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW BUILDINGS EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES. - SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER. - SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE. - SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE PREVALENT IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES. * SURGE: PROTECT AGAINST LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE: - LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE. - SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. - MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS. - MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS. * TORNADOES: PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE: - THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS. - SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW SPOTS OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES. - LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED ABOUT. DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING TO COMPLETION ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMPLETELY DETERIORATE. ANY REMAINING EVACUATIONS AND RELOCATIONS SHOULD BE EXPEDITED BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND. KEEP CELL PHONES WELL CHARGED AND HANDY. ALSO, CELL PHONE CHARGERS FOR AUTOMOBILES CAN BE HELPFUL AFTER THE STORM. LOCATE YOUR CHARGERS AND KEEP THEM WITH YOUR CELL PHONE. IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER. BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND HELPFUL TO OTHERS. IF YOU ARE A VISITOR AND STILL IN THE AREA, LISTEN FOR THE NAME OF THE CITY OR TOWN IN WHICH YOU ARE STAYING WITHIN LOCAL NEWS UPDATES. BE SURE YOU KNOW THE NAME OF THE COUNTY OR PARISH IN WHICH IT RESIDES. PAY ATTENTION FOR INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BE READY TO ADAPT TO POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV - FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG - FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG NEXT UPDATE ----------- THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AROUND NOON EDT, OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. $$
Tropical Storm Warning
4 MIN

[alwann]

Well, if you're including television meteorologists, then I'd say "yes." Remember, "If it bleeds, it leads."

[Taltarzac725]

Originally Posted by alwann

Well, if you're including television meteorologists, then I'd say "yes." Remember, "If it bleeds, it leads."

They seem to be right about 10% or less of the time. At least as far as the path of the hurricane or tropical storm is concerned over its 12 hour or more path.

I would not worry much if you are in the Villages except for the tornado warnings. Then get in a safe place.

[spring_chicken]

"tropical Storm Colin has now intensified. The winds are going 50 mph moving north northeast at 14 mph. We are already getting bands of rain moving into Central Florida this morning.

Anymore strengthening is not expected before Colin makes landfall due to vertical wind shear.

Colin should make landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida later tonight around 8 or 9 pm."



Tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. We are expected to see 5+ inches of rain by the end of Tuesday." end quote

Just because we aren't in the path doesn't mean that a lot of areas could experience flooding, tornados, and power outages.

[dbussone]

They aren't being alarmists. If one reads the content of the NOAA alert, and the most recent release from the Sumter County Emergency Operations Center, you'll see a number of important points:
1) TV is well within the impact zone of Tropical Storm Colin, which will travel north of us.
2) we are on the side of the storm which will receive the brunt of the storms force.
3) with the possibility of 4+ inches of rain comes the possibility of localized flooding.
4) it is not uncommon for storms like this to throw off tornadoes.
Better to be prepared. Do you and your family have a plan?

Here's the 8:30 AM Warning for our area.

Tropical Storm Warning
COLIN LOCAL WATCH/WARNING STATEMENT/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL AL032016
827 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

FLZ043-062030-
/O.CON.KTBW.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SUMTER-
827 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- WILDWOOD
- LAKE PANASOFFKEE
- BUSHNELL

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
- PEAK WIND FORECAST: 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: MODERATE
- THE WIND THREAT HAS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- REMAIN BRACED AGAINST THE REASONABLE THREAT FOR STRONG
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 58 TO 73 MPH.
- TO BE SAFE, EFFORTS SHOULD FULLY FOCUS ON PROTECTING LIFE.
PROPERTIES REMAIN SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS.
- NOW IS THE TIME TO HIDE FROM THE WIND. FAILURE TO
ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY, OR IN SOME
CASES LOSS OF LIFE. REMAIN SHELTERED UNTIL THE HAZARDOUS
WIND SUBSIDES.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: UNFOLDING
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE UNFOLDING.
- THE EXTENT OF REALIZED IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL
STRENGTH, DURATION, AND EXPOSURE OF THE WIND AS EXPERIENCED
AT PARTICULAR LOCATIONS.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
- PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: MODERATE
- THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- EMERGENCY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE A THREAT OF
FLOODING.
- BE SAFE AND REMAIN READY TO PROTECT AGAINST FLOODING RAIN
IMPACTS.
- IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, HEED
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS
AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH
SWIFTER CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES,
ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS,
CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN
FOUNDATIONS. SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS
OF RAPID INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON
MOVING WATER AS STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW.
DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE
CLOSURES.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- SITUATION IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: MODERATE
- THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
- EMERGENCY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT
FOR TORNADOES.
- BE SAFE AND REMAIN READY TO PROTECT AGAINST TORNADO
IMPACTS. STAY INFORMED.
- LISTEN FOR TORNADO WATCHES AND WARNINGS. IF A TORNADO
APPROACHES, QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SAFEST PLACE WITHIN YOUR
SHELTER.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT
- THE OCCURRENCE OF SCATTERED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE
EXECUTION OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW
SPOTS OF CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND
COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS TORN OFF FRAME HOUSES, MOBILE
HOMES DEMOLISHED, BOXCARS OVERTURNED, LARGE TREES SNAPPED
OR UPROOTED, VEHICLES TUMBLED, AND SMALL BOATS TOSSED
ABOUT. DANGEROUS PROJECTILES CAN ADD TO THE TOLL.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

$$




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[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

I can certainly understand all those coastal areas being warned, but take a look at those computer projections and tell me what is the chance of Sumter county being effected.

I guess that they have to cover themselves in the event that t does move toward the south.

The thing is however, most of these things usually begin to peter out once they get over land. But again, I guess the NWS has to err on the side of caution. And there would probably be no end to te lawsuits if one of the television weathermen told us not to worry about it and the storm did something crazy.

[bagboy]

It makes sense for all of us to have a hurricane kit. And having extra food and water on hand before any named storm is sound practice. I watch as much storm coverage as most people when they are forecast. For Colin, I haven't heard the first word from anyone about boarding up windows... Who said that? I can add that storm after storm, year after year forecasters and meteorologists sound the alarm if you will to NOT drive through standing water. Yet, people do and people drown. Maybe some people need to be alarmed for their own good, but I don't think "alarmists" defines most forecasters.

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Originally Posted by Taltarzac725

They seem to be right about 10% or less of the time. At least as far as the path of the hurricane or tropical storm is concerned over its 12 hour or more path.

I would not worry much if you are in the Villages except for the tornado warnings. Then get in a safe place.

What is a safe place in TV. We had a tornado warning about four years ago and we went to a rec center. People told me that was the worst place to go. How can that be? I would think that a cement block building is the best that we have. In fact a friend of mine has a block and stucco house and he was told that he should just stay put in case of a tornado because his house was the safest place to be.

There nothing except and underground shelter that is 100% safe in a tornado, but we have a frame house so I would think that a rec center would be more secure.

By the way, I think that two tornadoes have hit The Villages area in the past seventy years. More tornadoes have hit Massachusetts in the past ten years than The Villages. I know people that were caught in the one that hit here about eight years ago and they get very nervous when the possibility of a tornado is mentioned. I can't blame them. If I had gone thought an experience like that I'd probably be terrified as well. But looking at it objectively, the chances of a tornado hitting here and especially the chance of it hitting directly on any one home are pretty slim.

Of course we have a hurricane kit prepared. Enough water for a week, a lot of canned food, flashlight, battery powered radio etc. Everyone in Florida should have one. But I would ask everyone that has one, how many times have you used it?

[NECHFalcon68]

Having spent many winters up north, I learned that Meteorology 101 included buying stock in local grocery store chains...

[dbussone]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

I can certainly understand all those coastal areas being warned, but take a look at those computer projections and tell me what is the chance of Sumter county being effected.



I guess that they have to cover themselves in the event that t does move toward the south.



The thing is however, most of these things usually begin to peter out once they get over land. But again, I guess the NWS has to err on the side of caution. And there would probably be no end to te lawsuits if one of the television weathermen told us not to worry about it and the storm did something crazy.

Doc - see above. I've included the full warning which is specific to Sumter County.


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[Taltarzac725]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

What is a safe place in TV. We had a tornado warning about four years ago and we went to a rec center. People told me that was the worst place to go. How can that be? I would think that a cement block building is the best that we have. In fact a friend of mine has a block and stucco house and he was told that he should just stay put in case of a tornado because his house was the safest place to be.

There nothing except and underground shelter that is 100% safe in a tornado, but we have a frame house so I would think that a rec center would be more secure.

Evacuation & Shelters | Sumter County, FL - Official Website

Probably depends on how much time you have. The bathtubs would be my first place to cower or a closet with no windows.

[flyerguy]

Years ago we all complained that we didn't have sufficient warnings for severe weather. Today, the Weather Service does a great job reporting weather conditions.

Even with the advanced warnings there are those that choose to ignore them. I've always believed in being prepared and staying safe rather than the alternative. If the storm misses you, great, if not are you ready?

[dbussone]

Originally Posted by flyerguy

Years ago we all complained that we didn't have sufficient warnings for severe weather. Today, the Weather Service does a great job reporting weather conditions.



Even with the advanced warnings there are those that choose to ignore them. I've always believed in being prepared and staying safe rather than the alternative. If the storm misses you, great, if not are you ready?

[emoji106]


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[dbussone]

Originally Posted by Taltarzac725

Evacuation & Shelters | Sumter County, FL - Official Website



Probably depends on how much time you have. The bathtubs would be my first place to cower or a closet with no windows.

We are fortunate to have a centrally located laundry room. It's fairly large and has no windows, and 2 doors that can be closed.


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