[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Originally Posted by dbussone

Doc - see above. I've included the full warning which is specific to Sumter County.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I saw your post with the full warnings. My question is, looking at the computer models, what is that warning based on?

It appears, to me, that this storm is going to more well to the north of us and that we're going to get the very edges of it.

[justjim]

Some people overreact and some under react. I suppose you can say that about many things. I was an ol' Boy Scout so being prepared is a good motto but a good scout does not panic either.

A meteorologist does love a good storm. The television personalities especially. And that's okay But when they interrupt my Cub or Bear game too much it does pzzzz me off.

[tuccillo]

It doesn't work that way as there is no "right" or "wrong". What is tracked is the error in the path and error in the point of landfall, in units of distance. Ideally it would be zero but that doesn't happen. Typically, an envelope of possible paths is presented whereby there is a very high probability that the true path will be in that envelope. The envelope widens with forecast length, which represents the uncertainty with time.

Originally Posted by Taltarzac725

They seem to be right about 10% or less of the time. At least as far as the path of the hurricane or tropical storm is concerned over its 12 hour or more path.

I would not worry much if you are in the Villages except for the tornado warnings. Then get in a safe place.

[tuccillo]

I am not aware of any successful lawsuits.

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

I can certainly understand all those coastal areas being warned, but take a look at those computer projections and tell me what is the chance of Sumter county being effected.

I guess that they have to cover themselves in the event that t does move toward the south.

The thing is however, most of these things usually begin to peter out once they get over land. But again, I guess the NWS has to err on the side of caution. And there would probably be no end to te lawsuits if one of the television weathermen told us not to worry about it and the storm did something crazy.

[twoplanekid]

For detailed information on the 2007 tornado that hit The Villages -> http://www.depts.ttu.edu/nwi/Pubs/Re...AW-Florida.pdf

It’s my understanding that the developer and many others immediately came together to help all those in need to quickly recover from the damages inflicted by this event.

Newer homes have systems in place to help reduce wind damage as a result of this type of studies.

[Boomer]

Anecdotal Evidence......or not?

Many years ago a big tornado hit the Cincinnati area. Came mighty close to our house but did not hit us.

I had been reading that evening, not watching television, had not heard any sirens........yet.......

When it was time to go to bed, our Brittany spaniel, whose bed was on the floor beside ours, would not settle down. She was pacing and pacing and it was not because she needed to go outside. In fact, she did not want to.

It was weird and Mr. Boomer was out of town.

Finally, for some reason, maybe for distraction, I turned on the television and sure enough it was one of the local weather guys with, "GO TO COVER!"

Often animals seem to know first.

Maybe check with your dog.

Boomer

[Mleeja]

This tropical storm warning reminds me of the blizzard warning up north. No one knows for sure the exact path the storm will take. Brownwood area may get several inches of rain where as us folks up by the Savannah Center may get missed completely. However the weather service has to issue the warnings for all of us. Somewhere they are going to be correct. Just be prepared and enjoy our time indoors.

[CFrance]

Or your bird... Our cockatiel noted the minor earthquake that hit west Mich. in the middle of the night a decade ago.

[Polar Bear]

The forecasted path is for the center of the storm. Impacts can be a long way from the storm center. Colin for example is supposed to dump a lot of rain east and south of the path (read Fl peninsula).

Time will tell, but I don't mind the warnings.

[rexxfan]

If you are waiting for storm warnings to go out and get prepared, you're doing it wrong.
--
Bob C

[Mleeja]

It is raining! Finally!

[jimmemac]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

I saw your post with the full warnings. My question is, looking at the computer models, what is that warning based on?

It appears, to me, that this storm is going to more well to the north of us and that we're going to get the very edges of it.

Those of us to the south and east of he storms path will see the most rain and wind. The storms track is a little deceiving, it is only the track of the center and not where the most damage will occur . I hope this helps make sense of all of the warnings. The reason I know this stuff is because I did a lot of duck and goose hunting like a guide and they are very dependant on weather.

[Shimpy]

Originally Posted by Dr Winston O Boogie jr

I can certainly understand all those coastal areas being warned, but take a look at those computer projections and tell me what is the chance of Sumter county being effected.

You are looking at the paths as a narrow storm such as a tornado. That is the projected path of the center of the storm, but the heavy winds and rain are sometimes hundreds of miles wide.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by twoplanekid

For detailed information on the 2007 tornado that hit The Villages -> http://www.depts.ttu.edu/nwi/Pubs/Re...AW-Florida.pdf

It’s my understanding that the developer and many others immediately came together to help all those in need to quickly recover from the damages inflicted by this event.

Newer homes have systems in place to help reduce wind damage as a result of this type of studies.

We were here on February 2, 2007 when the tornado struck about 3:15 am. We lived in The village of Caroline and just two blocks from damage that completely destroyed homes. True, The Developer pulled all of his contractors off building new homes to salvage as many homes that were hit by the tornado as possible. Nobody lost their life in The Villages but over 100 homes had to be completely replaced and others repaired. Forty five persons were taken to hospitals. The town of Lady Lake was not as fortunate as there were fatalities---nine I think.

It was a bad situation but could have been worse had the storm hit during working hours when more people were out and about. These storms that are approaching can be very dangerous if they spawn any tornados.

[kcrazorbackfan]

Originally Posted by Mleeja

It is raining! Finally!

I was beginning to wonder if Colin was going to split and go north and south of us. I hope this fills up the ponds.

For those talking about tornado's, I've been through two in my life (Conway, AR April 1965/Jonesboro, AR May 1973); they are not fun. That's one of the reasons we moved here from the Midwest; we got tired of all the spring tornadic activity.