[Bridget Staunton]

Don as always thank you for your insight. I always read your posts

[rustyp]

Originally Posted by Goldwingnut

I saw the response below to a previous post of mine and I thought I would share my thoughts on growth. I have no obligation or loyalty to The Villages developer beyond the same responsibilities I have towards each and every resident and business in Sumter County, my thoughts and opinions below, come from looking at things from a business perspective and as a resident of the county and our community.



I aways love this question and it many variations. Here's my take on it.

First, the developer isn't short sighted, and they know where this community is going and where they will build many years in advance.

They are very good businesspeople and know how to make a profitable business – this is not a sin or something evil, it is exactly how each of us were able to be here, we made a profit in what we were doing for a living and saved some of it for retirement. A business exists to make a profit by providing a commodity that someone else wants.

Some of the keys to being profitable in business are knowing your customer, having a desirable product that people want, these they obviously mastered. Cost containment and pricing are also key factors to success. For this discussion, “knowing where your customers are” is the point to delve into.

For Brownwood to be successful as a business location it must be surrounded by its customer base, just like Lake Sumter Landing and Spanish Springs. As we see it today with the building of Richmond, St. Johns, and beyond, that is certainly the case. Had this not been planned all along and they were truly going to stop at SR44, Brownwood would likely be located where the Turman and Roosevelt executive courses are today.

Brownwood’s current location would have been a mistake when it was chosen over 25 years ago (watch the next 30 seconds of this video https://youtu.be/_GHKaJd-wKk?t=133 ) had they not been planning to move south of SR44. The problem was zoning, south of SR44 wasn’t zoned for this kind of development and until it was, Brownwood’s location was a huge gamble because it was out in the middle of nowhere Sumter County. Planning something like The Villages is multifaceted task that has to not only look at moving dirt, buying lumber and shingles, and building houses, it also requires looking at the economics of not only the end results but the process as it impact the local and regional economies, and understanding how to use that in the planning and long term goal process. Until many of the necessary things became solidified, “stopping at SR44” was a valid and true statement; they just weren’t showing their hold cards and what they were working on in the background.

I’ll sidetrack for just a minute here to the topic of “stopping at CR466A” that I’ve heard many were told or promised. This was pure ignorance for anyone to say or believe, and for some it was just dishonesty to hype sales. Let me explain, CDD5 was established on 3/19/2002 as the first CDD south of CR466, then on 2/10/2004 CDD6 was established, by 9/28/2004 CDD9 and CDD10 were established. The first homes built south of CR466 didn’t happen until sometime in 2004. So, if you bought south of CR466 and were told they’re not building south of CR466A, there was either ignorance or willful misinformation by the person providing the information, at the plans for south of CR466A were already well in progress.

Now back to SR44. As The Villages grew and progressed southward, it not only created new homes and communities that brought with it new commercial enterprises and a thriving economy, it also established and very strong construction industry that currently numbers in the 12-15,000 jobs for Sumter and surrounding counties. This growth created a growing and prosperous economy and tax base. A little long-term planning and thinking by civic leaders saw this growth as Lemmings running off a cliff (actually a myth created by Disney), with the cliff being SR44. If The Villages were to “stop building” at SR44, the economy of Sumter and neighboring counties and cities would feel a huge negative impact from the loss of thousands of construction jobs. The developer recognized this and planned accordingly and quietly for this.

Along with the job losses would come plummeting property values, loss of may more jobs as the workers moved away and took with them their families. Family members that also held jobs in the area; medical workers, commercial establishments, restaurants, secondary construction, landscaping, and many more. If you think that it’s hard now to find people to work, imagine how much worse it would be if the 15,000 workers lost their jobs and moved away.

Not all of course would move away, some would stay, but with few jobs, unemployment would go through the roof and as history has shown us, crime would also spike with the unemployment. Crime picks the easy targets, in the case of The Villages that would be senior citizens and lots of unoccupied homes (snowbirds).

The economy, crime, and unemployment are three of the biggest issues civic leaders have to deal with, if they don’t deal with these first, there is no way do also deal with things like infrastructure, roads, schools, and the myriad of other issues on their plates.

It is a difficult and delicate task for civic leaders to balance all the needs of the community, one cannot favor businesses over residents or residents over businesses, one cannot take an unwavering position on an issue such as growth without directly impacting, negatively or positively, other issues such as home values or employment. A great amount of flexibility is needed, and each individual issue must be evaluated on its merits and overall long- and short-term impact. In the case allowing The Villages to continue building south of 44, this was a decision that had to be made to preserve the economy of the entire area. We can now see in hindsight that the developer foresaw and planned ahead for this decision.

Many have said that Harold Schwartz would not have done what is happening today, I say this is bunk. The timing of what is happening today goes back to the 90’s when Mr. Schwartz as alive and actively involved in the planning and future development of The Villages. What we see today is a part of and a continuation of his dream. I never met the man, but I have spoken to many who knew him personally and worked and did business with him, they all agree that his outward persona of being everyone’s friend was true and genuine, but when it came to business he was a shrewd and as hard charging any of today’s business giants, and that business always came first.

Now our civic leaders, at all levels, are dealing with and addressing the domino issues of these decisions: schools, roads, businesses, and many more. They can’t over react or plan too far in the future as they have to live withing budgets that by their very nature, lag behind the growth, incurring debt to “get ahead” of an issue often turns to folly and a waste of money. The counties and cities around us are investing and planning for the growth, much of it is very well thought out. The perception of some is that nothing is happening, hardly the case, sometimes the perception of “too much traffic” is simply more that it used to be but sill less than the current design capacities. Many times there are additional issues that the average resident doesn’t know of or understand that cannot be ignored or dismissed before an issue, perceived or otherwise, is addressed; in the case of roadways right-of-way ownership and drainage are two areas that stumbling blocks that must always be addressed first as well as budget restraints.

Concerning other infrastructure such as utilities, this is a joint effort between developers and municipalities. Wildwood is currently dealing with an aging wastewater processing system that is reaching capacity due to the city’s growth outside of The Villages component. New apartment complexes, home development, and business are stressing these resources and Wildwood’s leaders have recently taken positive and decisive steps to address these. Fortunately, Wildwood is spared much of the stress on these systems caused by the growth of The Villages as water related infrastructure is basically self-contained within the development. The building of the massive Gibson Wastewater Treatment facility at 501/470 to serve the areas south of Monarch Grove down to Middleton an beyond, being done by the developer without impact to Wildwood’s systems is an example of this. The cities of Coleman, Webster, Center Hill, and Bushnell are also addressing issues of continued growth, working with each other and the county to address current and plan for future needs.

Growth is inevitable, how we deal with it is important. I believe that our local governments are now in responsible and forward-thinking hands, looking out for the overall good of the community and not that of a few individuals or entities. Many local activists and those on social media would want you to think otherwise, a very myopic and self-indulgent opinion, and not based on any facts.

To the many who believe things have gotten too big I ask you, did it get too big the day before or the day after you arrived? If it is too big for you, the roads go in both directions, but remember, if you leave, wherever you go next, it too may be getting “too big” because of your arrival.

Obviously this is a complex and involved topic, I could continue on for many more hours typing on the topic, but I’ll stop for now.

Please, if you have specific questions of me related to actions and plans of Sumter County, I would ask that you direct them to my county email address or call my office at the county and not ask me to address them here. I’ll discuss general topics, some of my opinions, and historical issues here, but always with an eye to being in compliance with the Florida Sunshine Laws and public records keeping requirements.

Originally Posted by Travelhunter123

Is there a “readers digest”version of this

Yes - "It's good to be king".

[Topgun 1776]

In the end, all the conjecture and musings mean nothing. We live in a wonderful place. Growth and change is inevitable. If we don't like it at any point, we can sell and move. It's as simple as that.

Originally Posted by Bill14564

My home about a mile north of Brownwood was built in 2014. Brownwood Paddock Square opened two years earlier in 2012. Can the same be said for the Sawgrass or Eastport?

I have no idea about the timing of the homes and golf courses around Brownwood or Lake Sumter Landing but I get the impression that there are a lot of homes south of 44 with few courses. There appear to be seven executive courses and three championship courses between 466A and 44. There appear to be only five executive courses and one championship course to support all the development south of 44. It looks like more are being built but they are not being built first.

$$$ in Champion courses not Executive courses. As they crowd Clermont and reach toward Orlando and Kissimmee.. "If you build Champion courses, they will come."

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

The Village of Richmond that just opened in the past few months? Yes, all those things were built before Richmond but so were many hundreds of other homes in the area. I was reading these boards as people south of 44 and south of the turnpike were lamenting the absence of bridges to get to Brownwood, any form of town square, and any shopping at all. Plus, Sawgrass and Edna's are not equivalent to a Brownwood. Richmond is not even close to the FIRST HOME built.

To expect those amenities to be open before the first home may be NUTS but it is the very definition of "amenities continue to be built first."

By definition Amenities are things made possible by the bonds and are built first.

Restaurants, stores, etc. are commercial development built once the population reaches the critical mass for profitable business.

Given land south of the Turnpike was primarily populated by cattle, things didn't take off until that critical mass was achieved. The Fenny pioneers did wait a long time for more local business to open.

Further complicated by the seasonal population changes here.

Over 100 new homes continue to be sold a week. The commercial developers may have underestimated the growth rate. As soon as a new business, opens, it fills with customers day one.

Three years of this was in the middle of COVID, but growth continued at substantial risk to the developers.

As a side note, (The village of) Leesburg is just 15 min away from current construction so there is plenty of established shopping and restaurants closer than north of 466A.

[Veracity]

Thank you, Don, for sharing your knowledge and thank you for your service as a county commissioner. I enjoy the Goldwingnut videos and I am looking forward to your Spring Fling charity event at the Polo Fields on March 18th in memory of your son. Your hard work - on every level - is very much appreciated.

[amexsbow]

Speaking as one who lives in a Major Developer community, there are some big differences I have noticed about this one which is now run by an HOA and TV. The quality of the construction here and of TV couldn't be more different. Our HOA has sustained extreme costs associated with the poor quality of construction above and beyond that of inflation. The smaller the community the more some vocal groups become the only voices heard. As a result we are looking to relocate to the villages. I have some experience in home construction and from my observations of what is being built in TV is far better than what is being offered by some Major Builders of retirement communities.

[NotGolfer]

Great post Don Wiley! We moved here nearly 14 yrs ago so have seen the growth. I'm happy the developer has a vision and puts plans into place. So many of our friends who've come can't believe this place. I think they envisioned manufactured homes instead of the ones we have in place. We've seen amenities added---the hospital, medical clinics, school and businesses. Some of these were here and had additions put in. I've never understood the mentality of first buying then wanting to change everything from the governance to infrastructure and just the way of doing business.
All this said, I'm still in contact via social media with the community we moved here from. The comments up there could be inter-changed with here. Complaints of growth, of traffic, how badly people drive, round-abouts----ALL the same as here. Oh, add in the healthcare too. When we left up there---medical care was great. NOW people are asking where are the doctors going and why did they leave??!!! Same as here! Frankly I'm very happy with our retirement decisions so have to wonder what utopia people think they're getting. Just a rhetorical question to cast out there. One I have is---were y'all happy where you once came from and if so, why did you move?? Whatt were/are your expectations once you did??

[Rent From A Villager]

Thanks Don for your continued updates in insights!

[karenzeee]

Thanks Don for your continued updates and insights! Always a good read.

[twoplanekid]

Don stated
"Concerning other infrastructure such as utilities, this is a joint effort between developers and municipalities. Wildwood is currently dealing with an aging wastewater processing system that is reaching capacity due to the city’s growth outside of The Villages component. New apartment complexes, home development, and business are stressing these resources and Wildwood’s leaders have recently taken positive and decisive steps to address these. Fortunately, Wildwood is spared much of the stress on these systems caused by the growth of The Villages as water related infrastructure is basically self-contained within the development. The building of the massive Gibson Wastewater Treatment facility at 501/470 to serve the areas south of Monarch Grove down to Middleton an beyond, being done by the developer without impact to Wildwood’s systems is an example of this."

For the Developer to sell the utility infrastructure to a public agency at a fair price is OK. However, in my opinion that has not happened with many purchases NSCUDD has made with the developer.

[Cybersprings]

Originally Posted by GizmoWhiskers

Great info and explanations. We thank you for them.

On a smaller scale and remembering the residents that HAVE scraped to live here, those sold on the "lifestyle"...

They can build a city. Can they open a movie theater so residents, sold on the "lifestyle" of say driving a golf cart to a movie with the grand-kids can do so??

Seriously, it's not about workers or covid, plenty of elderly people were working there to subsidize income. Cost to purchase a movie to run it? Nah, can't be cost could it? They can build a city.

The Brownwood theater is gorgeous and is a perfect eample of TV developers, moving on. What's the excuse when they can move mountains and change the world for years to come. Villagers saying "Leesburg theater is great..." - WHAT??? DOES the trolley tour go to Leesburg now?

Call it a trivial "first world problem" if one wants but it is a fair example of they build and move on. S of 44, you can see a BIG change brewing that will impact the parts of T V where they have moved on.

Good point. I think the villages should have kept the theater open and REQUIRED every resident to attend it regularly so that it would remain sustainable. Ask those grandkids when the last time they went to the movie theater back home was (vs streaming on their ipads or TVs).

[Beyond The Wall]

Originally Posted by Altavia

Really?

If you watch Don's videos, amenities continue to be built first...

Wrong amenities being built first

Need another
“Full size square” south of 44.
Just looked through open tee times for Thursday. 85% of available time are on pitch and putts! Obvious need for more Executive courses , especially south of 44!

[Goldwingnut]

Originally Posted by Altavia

By definition Amenities are things funded by the bonds and are built first.

This is incorrect, the bonds build the infrastructure needed to support the community but not the amenities.

The amenities are funded by the developer who then owns and operates them as a portion of their business portfolio. In that construction cost is also a proportionate share of the infrastructure cost. The amenities are not a part of the respective neighboring CDD. The CDD lines are drawn around these properties and exclude them.

If the bond funds were used to build the amenities, those amenities would then be a part of the CDD issuing the bonds. But they aren't, so they don't.

The bonds do, however, make the amenities possible. The developer is able to recoup the development costs quickly by billing the costs to the CDD who then pays them from the funds raised by the sale of the bonds. The developer doesn't have their money tied up in water lines, retention ponds, roads, and sewer pipes for the duration of the sale cycle. This frees up cash to allow the building of the amenities. Without this methodology, we would be no different than most other communities where the salesman showing a lot would make statements like "over there will be the green for the 7th hole that will be built next year", something that frequently fails to materialize due to cash flow issues.

The discussion of the bonds could go on for quite a while, their merits and their pitfalls can be argued ad nauseum, but some things are very clear:
1) they are highly valued by investors and usually sell out within hours of being offered.
2) You will pay for these infrastructure costs one way or the other, either as a separate bond like we do here in The Villages or as a cost rolled into the final cost of the home (the developer NEVER pays any of these costs, they pass them through).
3) The cash flow position created by the issuing of bonds has had a very positive impact on the development of The Villages, and I would argue that without them, The Villages would not and could not exist as the successful development that it is today.

[jimjamuser]

I would like to comment on 2 separate, but related issues brought out in this thread - GROWTH and CRIME.
........Stated in about the 4th paragraph from the end, "Growth is INEVITABLE". Just as some humor........I was taught that ONLY DEATH and TAXES were inevitable. Now to be serious - at a micro level (The Villages growth) may be or seem to be inevitable - I could agree with that. But, at a macro level GROWTH in general depends on the continuing growth of the POPULATION of the US. I often use the term OPTIMAL population growth. For example, does China have the OPTIMAL growth for itself - apparently NOT as is apparent from the CLOUDS of pollution seen over ALL their big cities? America and Americans do NOT want their country to become OVERPOPULATED as China is. In China, right now, their government IS begging its population to have MORE children. And the people are saying NO. Their lives SUCK partly because they have gone PAST their point of OPTIMAL population. THAT is obvious to even myself, an ordinary citizen!
.........So, I put in that 1st paragraph as proof that things turn "and go south" when a population (any population, even Lemmings) exceeds its OPTIMAL NUMBER. Incidentally, that is why NATURE and Lemmings control ANIMAL POPULATIONS the way that it does. Why IS that important, you ask? Because mankind (humans) can fail to follow the laws of NATURE (AND POPULATIONS) for a LIMITED amount of time before things go "haywire". Think about CO2 killing coral reefs and dead spots in the Gulf of MEXICO. And record temperatures in the Gulf last year. And Global Warming that is predicted for the next 8 to 30 years.
........Florida is VERY VULNERABLE to HEAT increases as we saw with Hurricane IAN. Many northern visitors that WOULD buy property in the Villages are turned off by the summer HEAT and the prospects for KILLER hurricanes and tornadoes in the increasing HEAT of the Florida summers. Plus humidity, which is hard on an elderly person's body and health. Many of these people are looking to North and South Carolina as better locations with a temperate climate as opposed to a "HEAT chamber" like Florida!
.........What then is the OPTIMAL population for the US? I would propose that like China, we are PAST that number. 250 MILLION would be my best guess as to the Optimal US population. Note that US women are delaying having children so as to advance their careers. NOW, of course, the US can ALWAYS get migrants (legal or otherwise) because the US is a magnet for that - we are the "Gold Mountain" in their eyes. But, the question is whether large-scale immigration is going to be OPTIMAL from a numbers and EVEN a "changing demographic" basis ?
........The overall POINT IS that there are factors that could mitigate in the future AGAINST the "GROWTH is INEVITABLE" proposition.