[Nana2Teddy]

Originally Posted by Kelevision

When they say 80% chance of rain, they don’t mean there’s an 80% chance it’s going to rain, it means 80% of the area will get rain. on Tuesday, there was a huge electrical storm and I live by Sawgrass Grove and got Buckets of rain. I went to Lake Sumter Landing the next day for an appt. The computer got hit by lightning but they never got a drop of rain there. I remember many times where it would rain at my house and never at my friends down the street.

That rainstorm on Tuesday barely gave us 1/2” of rain in DeLuna, but it rained buckets up above Brownwood, and I know of at least one village (Dunedin) that lost power for a short time. On Wednesday we got at least 2” of rain in a short span. Summers are crazy here in FL! I use the premium version of the Weather Bug app, and it’s hit or miss with accuracy.

[dewilson58]

I would much rather have an accurate stock market forecast.

I ain't going to get either.

[Pugchief]

Originally Posted by Kelevision

When they say 80% chance of rain, they don’t mean there’s an 80% chance it’s going to rain, it means 80% of the area will get rain.

That makes no sense. Using that same logic, a 2% chance of rain means that 2% of the area will get wet. Nope, the sky is clear and nobody is gonna get wet.

An 80% chance of rain means just that; a probability 80/100 times with existing conditions will produce precipitation.

@Sounding can probably clarify.

[tophcfa]

I don’t mind that rain is difficult to forecast, getting wet never hurt me. Lightning on the other hand, wouldn’t it be great if that could be accurately forecasted!

[MrFlorida]

Here's your everyday forcast for Florida:: Hot and Humid, with a chance of a thunderstorm.... there , your welcome.

[sounding]

The 4 things I did upon moving to the Villages ...
1. Install lightning rods on house.
2. Install a whole-house surge protector on main fuse panel.
3. Install individual surge protection outlet strips on all home electronics (TV, PC, etc)
4. Replaced the flexible, yellow gas lines in the attic (which are NOT lightning proof) with black iron piping.

[sounding]

According to the NWS, a 40% chance of rain means .... there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest.

Originally Posted by Pugchief

That makes no sense. Using that same logic, a 2% chance of rain means that 2% of the area will get wet. Nope, the sky is clear and nobody is gonna get wet.

An 80% chance of rain means just that; a probability 80/100 times with existing conditions will produce precipitation.

@Sounding can probably clarify.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by sounding

According to the NWS, a 40% chance of rain means .... there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest.

What gets me is they predict much higher chance say 80% and we get nothing at all

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

What gets me is they predict much higher chance say 80% and we get nothing at all

That's because you were in the 20% that got nothing -- assuming the 80% forecast was right to begin with - which of course it not always the case. Remember, this is all computer generated -- using inadequate forecast models which use insufficient data. The problem is ... the NWS is NOT a profit making business -- which is why businesses that can afford it purchase higher quality forecasts from private companies - which are also limited by models and data, but they use experienced meteorologists for a man/machine mix to produce better forecasts. This is also true for short-term seasonal/climate forecasts.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

What gets me is they predict much higher chance say 80% and we get nothing at all

That just means that 20% won that day...

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by sounding

The 4 things I did upon moving to the Villages ...
1. Install lightning rods on house.
2. Install a whole-house surge protector on main fuse panel.
3. Install individual surge protection outlet strips on all home electronics (TV, PC, etc)
4. Replaced the flexible, yellow gas lines in the attic (which are NOT lightning proof) with black iron piping.

I got a life insurance policy to help my wife out when I get by lightning while either golfing or swimming laps. This place is a lightning death trap if you enjoy doing outdoor activities in the afternoon and evening.

[MorTech]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

I don’t mind that rain is difficult to forecast, getting wet never hurt me. Lightning on the other hand, wouldn’t it be great if that could be accurately forecasted!

Just hold a one iron up in the air in a lightning storm...Even God can't hit a one iron

[MorTech]

Originally Posted by MrFlorida

Here's your everyday forcast for Florida:: Hot and Humid, with a chance of a thunderstorm.... there , your welcome.

I believe you are 100% accurate

[bobeaston]

Try weatherunderground.com. They use a larger network of sensors to form their forecasts.

ALL of the big name weather networks use exactly the same forecast info from NWS. So, you won't find much variation, just pretty pictures for your location. Weatherunderground.com is different. While I imagine they use the NWS forecast as a base, they have a huge sensor network to make their information more accurate.

Tens of thousands of people have their own personal weather instruments (easily bought from the internet for a few hundred). Each of those has the ability to be connected to weather networks like weatherunderground.com. More sensors, better accuracy.

Two of those personal weather stations in our village give more accurate static readings than any of the big name networks. More at weatherunderground.com/overview

... and Yes, summer days always start with a forecast of t-storms in the afternoon. That's simply the way summer weather is.

[rsmurano]

Also, nobody can tell you how much rain you got at your home except for you. You might get a drizzle and 3 blocks away they got an inch of rain. I have my own weather station to run my sprinkler system so I know exactly how much rain i got and I upload this data to weather underground and another weather site for others to link to the data.