[CoachKandSportsguy]

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

Dow up 3k on 4-9. Dropped again 4-10 in the AM by around 800. Tariff impact still not known and too many people out there who can't spell economy and believe everything they hear from their favorite news source.

At least now the good CEO's will/should earn their pay in order to plan out the uncertain future. How many children/s toys are made in China and what will they cost when they reach the US?

[Normal]

CPI for March is negative 0.1 percent. Inflation is finally settling because of our new economic policies.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

So the national and trade debt are a problem that needed to be addressed. A recession has been predicted quite often in the past few years. Would printing more money fix everything, lol.

[Caymus]

As the saying goes, "Economists have predicted seven out of the last three recessions"

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Caymus

As the saying goes, "Economists have predicted seven out of the last three recessions"

Or put a dozen economists in a room and you will get 13 opinions

[Michael G.]

You People that lost $$$$ in the down turn, just remember.
Not counting your initial investment, the moneys lost wasn't yours to begin with.

[Dahabs]

Originally Posted by Normal

CPI for March is negative 0.1 percent. Inflation is finally settling because of our new economic policies.

A little too early for the current admin's policies to be reflected in the March numbers. Shouldn't be too long now.

[Dahabs]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

The usual foreign buyers of US Treasuries may not be overly keen but the interest rates will not be the sole reason.

[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by kkingston57

Dow up 3k on 4-9. Dropped again 4-10 in the AM by around 800. Tariff impact still not known and too many people out there who can't spell economy and believe everything they hear from their favorite news source.

At least now the good CEO's will/should earn their pay in order to plan out the uncertain future. How many children/s toys are made in China and what will they cost when they reach the US?

Yes, the Dow went up 3,000 points in a day, but it was down 7,500 points since mid-December, so that 3,000 points is not profit. My retirement funds are still down over $100,000 since December. I’ve cut way back on spending.

[crash]

Originally Posted by Normal

CPI for March is negative 0.1 percent. Inflation is finally settling because of our new economic policies.

Dream on when the tariffs hit prices will soar. I am sure you have heard this but probably don’t believe it but tariffs are a tax.

[rsmurano]

Did you survive the recession of 2022? Yes we were in a recession. It was a time to make a lot of money. Coming out of the recession in 2023 thru 2024 you could have made 100’s of % on stocks, I mean a lot of different stocks. Since I sold in December of 2021, I had cash to buy these.
Same thing this time. I sold off last December. When things get back to normal, it’s going to be a very profitable recovery.

The biggest issue during a recession is that you never want to sell any stocks to live off of. You will be selling more shares and your base will be lower for the recovery, which will take you much more time to get back to where you were.

This might be a good time to think about converting your ira into a Roth. Your earnings will be lower so you will pay less taxes and there could be a fast recovery instead of a long drown out recovery.

I’m glad someone is making it so we have free trade. The US has been taken advantage of for way too long. At least the WH is transparent about it and states that we will have a bumpy ride for a while, which again will make investors a lot of money. IMO, when China flips, that’s my pivot to invest, and we will be off to the races.

[opinionist]

What if we had a country where the government funded itself with tariffs and all direct taxes were eliminated? Instead of paying interest to a central bank for money creation, we would create non-interest-bearing treasury notes. The government is reduced in size to align with the explicit restrictions on federal power in the Constitution. Inflation would no longer exist with the currency backed by gold. We had such a government before in the late 1800s, and it led to the "roaring 20s."

[RoadToad]

Originally Posted by Normal

CPI for March is negative 0.1 percent. Inflation is finally settling because of our new economic policies.

Inflation was settling before our new economic policies.
Probably not so much going forth.

[ithos]

No good deed goes unpunished:

In short, coming out of the Second World War, the whole focus for the US innovation system was on early-stage R&D, not manufacturing. “Production was the last thing we worried about, since we were the king. Nobody was remotely close to us,” adds Bonvillian.

By resting on its laurels, therefore, the US lost its lead. Meanwhile, post-war Germany and Japan were rapidly rebuilding their industrial bases to counter mass unemployment. This meant their innovation systems were focused on manufacturing, leading to the creation of Germany’s much-vaunted Fraunhofer model (industry and universities working hand in hand) and Japan’s quality production revolution. These were dramatic innovations in the production process, much of which were funded, ironically, by US post-war reconstruction money, such as the Marshall Plan.
Investigating the Decline: Who Killed US Manufacturing

Ridiculous union demands were also a major factor. But relocation to right to work states would have been the solution. Overtime, the ballooning trade deficits will negate the benefits of cheaper imports. But of course short term profits are always the highest priority.