[asianthree]

Clouds are forming North of us looks like rain any minute. Probably not at our house, but one can hope. With the clouds so low we can hear the music at Brownwood

[La lamy]

I saw and heard a very little storm pass north of us yesterday. DANG!!! Maybe today...

[Nana2Teddy]

We had some silent lightning last night in the dark clouds that moved in at dusk. No rain unfortunately. Coincidentally though while typing this reply just now at 7am Monday morning I got a pop-up alert from Weather Bug app about rain this afternoon. I never hold my breath that it’ll actually happen, so we’ll see.

[mrf6969]

The weather guy on local FOX says we in TV should see some rain this evening. We can only hope.

[retiredguy123]

I can understand weather forcasters making mistakes about their forecasts for rain. But, to me, it is unacceptable for them to consistently predict rain that almost never happens. Obviously, they are deliberating distorting the data to make it look like rain will occur when they know they are wrong more often than not. Why not just present the actual data?

[biker1]

Well, no, that is not how it works. The precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. The prognostications of many complex events are presented as probability functions. What actual data are you referring to? If it is model data then that is readily available but you won't be able to interpret it correctly.

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

I can understand weather forcasters making mistakes about their forecasts for rain. But, to me, it is unacceptable for them to consistently predict rain that almost never happens. Obviously, they are deliberating distorting the data to make it look like rain will occur when they know they are wrong more often than not. Why not just present the actual data?

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by biker1

Well, no, that is not how it works. The precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. The prognostications of many complex events are presented as probability functions. What actual data are you referring to? If it is model data then that is readily available but you won't be able to interpret it correctly.

What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.

[biker1]

Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

What you are saying is not consistent with my experience. I consistently observe that they will predict a high percentage for rain (like 80 percent) in the morning, and then they will reduce the percentage hourly, and very often, there will be no rain at all. That has been my experience for several years of living in The Villages. They never present data about how accurate their forecasts have been in the past, so there is no way to evaluate their prediction success rates.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by biker1

Reread my post. What I actually stated was that the precipitation forecasts are presented as probability functions. This is true. The probability function may change with time as new data becomes available. I have no idea who you mean when you say "they" so I can't comment on what verification results might be collected.

I agree that the probability function can change, but my experience is that it almost always changes to predict a lower probability of rain rather than a higher probability of rain. This indicates to me that they are deliberately predicting more rain than they should be predicting. Apparently, they would rather predict rain that doesn't occur than to not predict rain that does occur. That is my experience. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience over many years in Florida.

[Regorp]

Originally Posted by Normal

We should be getting rain today! Finally a little saturation. It’s been so dry these past months. All the ponds seem down. 😊

My weather app said it was raining. Not here, but in Ocala. We stayed dry.

[biker1]

I'm glad you agree, although you have no expertise in this area. Believe what you want, nobody cares, particularly me. People complaining about things they don't understand is tiresome. Present actual data to support your claim, otherwise ...

I notice you never answered my question.

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

I agree that the probability function can change, but my experience is that it almost always changes to predict a lower probability of rain rather than a higher probability of rain. This indicates to me that they are deliberately predicting more rain than they should be predicting. Apparently, they would rather predict rain that doesn't occur than to not predict rain that does occur. That is my experience. We can agree to disagree, but that is my experience over many years in Florida.

[sunnyFLORIDA5828]

Ready for the rain, whenever.

Tested our windshield wipers - check

Tested our umbrellas - check

Tested our house roof shingles - check

Ready. Whenever…

[biker1]

June, when the rainy season begins.

Originally Posted by sunnyFLORIDA5828

Ready for the rain, whenever.

Tested our windshield wipers - check

Tested our umbrellas - check

Tested our house roof shingles - check

Ready. Whenever…

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Good New's fat little buddy! Good News!
100% rain at 5pm (hearin's believin)

Hourly Weather Forecast for The Villages, FL - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

C'mon Flash!

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Shoelaces

Good New's fat little buddy! Good News!
100% rain at 5pm (hearin's believin)

Hourly Weather Forecast for The Villages, FL - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

C'mon Flash!

What was 100 percent is now 72 percent. Stay tuned.