[biker1]

People want black and white in a gray world and linear in a non-linear world. There are limits to the predictability of warm season convection with very weak flow. It can rain on one side of The Villages and not the other. Large spatial variabilities exist. Cool season predictability is much higher. We generate unsteady solutions to non-linear PDEs where chaos theory applies. There are limits.

Originally Posted by Rainger99

And a 50% chance that it won’t rain. Kind of like a coin flip?

[sounding]

Originally Posted by biker1

People want black and white in a gray world and linear in a non-linear world. There are limits to the predictability of warm season convection with very weak flow. It can rain on one side of The Villages and not the other. Large spatial variabilities exist. Cool season predictability is much higher. We generate unsteady solutions to non-linear PDEs where chaos theory applies. There are limits.

Bingo - exactly right. Humans by default, think linearly. Our atmosphere is complex and reacts in a non-linear fashion, both in space and time -- and this is especially true for climate models. As such, they are unable to replicate some of earth's basic air/ocean wind & thermal patterns, such as ENSO and QBO. If you can't replicate the past, you can't forecast the future. As for hurricane outlooks, they only got it right 3 times during the past 28 years of April outlooks.

[biker1]

Your conflating of weather prediction and climate modeling demonstrates that you don’t understand the science of either and you telling me what is correct is laughable. Please post your peer reviewed AMS journal papers.

Originally Posted by sounding

Bingo - exactly right. Humans by default, think linearly. Our atmosphere is complex and reacts in a non-linear fashion, both in space and time -- and this is especially true for climate models. As such, they are unable to replicate some of earth's basic air/ocean wind & thermal patterns, such as ENSO and QBO. If you can't replicate the past, you can't forecast the future. As for hurricane outlooks, they only got it right 3 times during the past 28 years of April outlooks.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by biker1

Your conflating of weather prediction and climate modeling demonstrates that you don’t understand the science of either and you telling me what is correct is laughable. Please post your peer reviewed AMS journal papers.

Yes, I see the problem ... which explains why more and more folks sign up for monthly future talks announcements following each weather club presentation.

[Stu from NYC]

Irregardless of this all when will it rain again

[MorTech]

Originally Posted by sounding

This is a common result of fast-changing jet-stream patterns -- the models can't handle it -- which is part of the reason why all the climate models are failures. The rains are farther south, but we did get some "relatively" cooler air. This failure to forecast the rain lies in the fact that the models still don't understand how the sun controls our climate -- which explains why the models are unable to see why hurricanes and tornadoes have been decreasing for the past 30 years. This will discussed at 4 PM this Friday (June 14) at Lake Miona for the Philosophy Club.

Officially: It is typical of Earth in the current Ice Age to have turbulent weather due to large temperature deltas between the equator and poles from lack of cloud cover globally. When/if the planet warms, there will be more cloud cover and smaller temperature deltas and therefore less turbulence for easier model forecasting.

Reality: I didn't wash my car so it didn't rain. Sorry.

[Maker]

When all the weather presenters show maps with 5 inches of rain in this entire area, I would expect something like that. Followed by words like "everybody will see rain" means they are 100% sure of rain in the area.
There is no gray area there. No hint of it being "spotty".
Yet a few areas got 1 inch. Others got zero.

Sensationalism is what was done. Be sure to tune in at the next newscast for the latest updates.
Conditions people to not believe them. With good reason - they really blew it. Again.
What happens to the next tornado warning? Truth or more alarmist garbage?

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Maker

When all the weather presenters show maps with 5 inches of rain in this entire area, I would expect something like that. Followed by words like "everybody will see rain" means they are 100% sure of rain in the area.
There is no gray area there. No hint of it being "spotty".
Yet a few areas got 1 inch. Others got zero.

Sensationalism is what was done. Be sure to tune in at the next newscast for the latest updates.
Conditions people to not believe them. With good reason - they really blew it. Again.
What happens to the next tornado warning? Truth or more alarmist garbage?

Agree ... and the reason why Global Warming was changed to Climate Change will be revealed June 14 at 4 PM at Lake Miona -- for those who haven't figured it our yet.

[Dusty_Star]

Originally Posted by fdpaq0580

I turned off my irrigation in anticipation of rain. Sorry! My bad!

I keep trying to turn off my irrigation, but then it doesn't rain & I have to turn it back on again.

[Keefelane66]

So by being a retired Weather Person you might be 50% right or 50% wrong.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Keefelane66

So by being a retired Weather Person you might be 50% right or 50% wrong.

I am not fully retired and still work in the work meteorological industry, and though my early years had a steep learning curve, I have since received several awards for forecast excellence.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

According to the forecast, we were supposed to get 4-5 inches of much needed rain this week. I was looking forward to a few rainy days.

The heaviest rain was supposed to be today. I only got about 1/4 inch yesterday and the current forecast shows very little rain for today. And forecasts for Thursday and Friday are much less than they were on Sunday.

I live in Sawgrass. Any significant rain in other areas of the Villages?

Looks like the weatherman was just a few days off on his rain forecast. I haven't used my sprinklers for over a week now.

[shut the front door]

North of 466 got at least an inch today. So, no, it did not pass south.

[sounding]

Today's rainshowers moved from West to East. Use Windy DOT Com to see how the winds move.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

This is how i lost my front yard st augustine to torpedo grass!

The sprinkler system is linked to a local weather forecast site. The "Smart Watering" setting last summer was to NOT water with greater than 50% chance of rain in the forecast. Basically the lawn didn't get watered in July and not in August either and the rain did not happen enough make up for not watering at all. I set it to 80% and still no watering with smart setting



I watched the forecast from the local weather station, and had forecast rain all week in May, no smart watering and it showered for maybe a minute or two for the whole week. .

Now i am setting on a standardized program regardless of forecast, and at least I will have grass. .
take that deed compliance troll