[cjrjck]

The weather forecast inaccuracies are not unique to Florida. I've seen them most everywhere I have lived but especially along the Gulf Coast, the source of much of the moisture that feeds these storms. About the only time forecasts here are somewhat accurate is when a front is coming down from the northwest. You can often see the leading edge of the front and its associated thunderstorms as it approaches, often days in advance. The forecasters really blew this week's forecasts. Yes, the models are responsible but the models are just a tool used by meteorologists. I saw instances where the forecast went from 2.5 inches in a day, to .5 and then back to 1.5 and then down to .2 then to .001 in about a 5 hour period. Same thing the next day. In the end, we got no measurable rain. I am no meteorologist but I told my wife that they are seeing something I wasn't and went ahead an watered my lawn on schedule even though it was forecasted to rain over 2 inches that day.

[Shipping up to Boston]

As stated before....selfishly, I only watch for the weather babes. Right or wrong, rarely do I listen to their forecasts! Especially the local affiliates, these forecasts are driven by the HD, Lowe’s of the world and for obvious reasons. Hysteria sells.

[Rainger99]

Originally Posted by biker1

For example, if you hear that there is a 50% chance of showers

Wouldn’t that forecast be correct 100% of the time??

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Weather forecasters often predict more rain than actually occurs. It happens too often to be an error. Personally, I think they do it on purpose. I don't know why, but could it be that, if it rains and they didn't predict it, they will be more heavily criticized?

Forecasters are often very pretty females so who listens to the forecast?

[Shipping up to Boston]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

Wouldn’t that forecast be correct 100% of the time??

Reminds me of the movie Anchorman....

Ron Burgundy : Brian, I'm gonna be honest with you, that cologne smells like pure gasoline. Brian Fantana : They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.

[biker1]

No, the forecasters didn’t “blow” anything. There were weak gradients so the overall predictability was low and the spacial variability was high. I, by the way, received just under an inch of rain on Tuesday. Models are tools but the forecasters are totally dependent on the models. There is a scientific limit to the predictability of convection in weak, unstable flow regimes. The probability functions assigned to the forecasts reflected this.

Originally Posted by cjrjck

The weather forecast inaccuracies are not unique to Florida. I've seen them most everywhere I have lived but especially along the Gulf Coast, the source of much of the moisture that feeds these storms. About the only time forecasts here are somewhat accurate is when a front is coming down from the northwest. You can often see the leading edge of the front and its associated thunderstorms as it approaches, often days in advance. The forecasters really blew this week's forecasts. Yes, the models are responsible but the models are just a tool used by meteorologists. I saw instances where the forecast went from 2.5 inches in a day, to .5 and then back to 1.5 and then down to .2 then to .001 in about a 5 hour period. Same thing the next day. In the end, we got no measurable rain. I am no meteorologist but I told my wife that they are seeing something I wasn't and went ahead a watered my lawn on schedule even though it was forecasted to rain over 2 inches that day.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by cjrjck

The weather forecast inaccuracies are not unique to Florida. I've seen them most everywhere I have lived but especially along the Gulf Coast, the source of much of the moisture that feeds these storms. About the only time forecasts here are somewhat accurate is when a front is coming down from the northwest. You can often see the leading edge of the front and its associated thunderstorms as it approaches, often days in advance. The forecasters really blew this week's forecasts. Yes, the models are responsible but the models are just a tool used by meteorologists. I saw instances where the forecast went from 2.5 inches in a day, to .5 and then back to 1.5 and then down to .2 then to .001 in about a 5 hour period. Same thing the next day. In the end, we got no measurable rain. I am no meteorologist but I told my wife that they are seeing something I wasn't and went ahead an watered my lawn on schedule even though it was forecasted to rain over 2 inches that day.

Perfect illustration of why all climate models fail. If you can't forecast 2 days out -- you certainly can't forecast 2 years out.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Weather forecasters often predict more rain than actually occurs. It happens too often to be an error. Personally, I think they do it on purpose. I don't know why, but could it be that, if it rains and they didn't predict it, they will be more heavily criticized?

Agree.

More likely though it "if it bleeds, it leads". The more doom and gloom is predicted, the more people will tune to/click/watch the predictor(s) in question.

It was the same in Minnesota. I can't tell you the number of times that SNOW UP TO YOUR NOSTRILS was predicted along with DANGEROUS WINDS and followed, of course, by the dreaded POLAR VORTEX!!!!! coming to park right over us. So more often than not we'd end up with about 4-6 inches, a few drifts, and a welcome if cold respite of bright clear blue skies so we could clear what accumulated in the driveway. In other words, normal if boring winter weather. But people don't click on normal and boring, so...

[Shipping up to Boston]

Originally Posted by biker1

No, the forecasters didn’t “blow” anything. There were weak gradients so the overall predictability was low and the spacial variability was high. I, by the way, received just under an inch of rain on Tuesday. Models are tools but the forecasters are totally dependent on the models. There is a scientific limit to the predictability of convection in weak, unstable flow regimes. The probability function assigned to the forecasts reflected this.

‘Models’ no pun intended there!
When they refer to the ‘European models’ and the ‘spaghetti charts’.....I’m looking for a 5’10” brunette in a spaghetti strap!

[biker1]

This is nonsense. You clearly have no understanding of the fundamental difference between deterministic weather simulations and climate simulations, which by the way are typically decades in length. And they all have probability functions.

Originally Posted by sounding

Perfect illustration of why all climate models fail. If you can't forecast 2 days out -- you certainly can't forecast 2 years out.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by biker1

This is nonsense. You clearly have no understanding of the fundamental difference between deterministic weather simulations and climate simulations, which by the way are typically decades in length. And they all have probability functions.

June 14, at 4 PM, at the Philosophy Club, at Lake Miona ... where you can explain why those probability functions have failed the climate models.

[Battlebasset]

A 50% chance of rain prediction in Florida is an average. It will rain 100% somewhere but 0% somewhere else. Thus, a 50% chance.

[biker1]

No thanks. I don’t go to meetings to discuss your flat earth theories or your cherry picking of other peoples’ data without providing reference.

Originally Posted by sounding

June 14, at 4 PM, at the Philosophy Club, at Lake Miona ... where you can explain why those probability functions have failed the climate models.

[biker1]

You can think of a 50% probability as the percentage of an area that will receive some rainfall in the warm season. The winter and shoulder months are different.

Originally Posted by Battlebasset

A 50% chance of rain prediction in Florida is an average. It will rain 100% somewhere but 0% somewhere else. Thus, a 50% chance.

[Rainger99]

Originally Posted by biker1

You can think of a 50% probability as the percentage of an area that will receive some rainfall in the warm season. The winter and shoulder months are different.

And a 50% chance that it won’t rain. Kind of like a coin flip?