[OpusX1]

If on Friday the reports are for in excess of 100 mph winds on Sunday, we will bug out. My brother lives near Ashville.

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by DARFAP

Yellow font is virtually unreadable.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

I use the yellow font in a quote where the back round color is dark green. I can see the yellow very easily on the dark green back round. I haven't seen anyone using yellow font on the creamy colored beige back round. I have, however, seen red font on the dark green back round. Now THAT is difficult for me to see.

[Happinow]

Originally Posted by sallybowron

Does anyone think we need to get plywood for our windows?

I was just talking to my husband about that. I think we do at 100 mph winds.

[billethkid]

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa

Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

Visualize your bird cage that encloses three sides of the back of your house. Now instead of screen there are sliding stackable doors (referred to as windows) that can enclose all three sides or slide them and stack them with all three sides open.

These are the doors/windows recommended by the manufacturer to be stacked and all side open in the event of winds in excess of 70 mph.

[Carl in Tampa]

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa
Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Don't bother, it is a myth and scientifically doesn't hold up. The pressure difference isn't enough.

I love science. I also love experience. It's kind of like theory versus practice.

Several years ago my wife was home with our young son. She heard the tornado coming. She saw it coming. She felt a pressure building up in her ears.

She opened the front room jalousie windows. She heard the air hissing out as she did. She felt the air pressure in her ears lessen.

She saw a part of the roof of the house across the street fly up into the air. A part of the roof of the house next door flew up into the air. Our house was undamaged.

I recall that for decades science said that the Bumblebee was aerodynamically incapable of flight. Not knowing better, the Bumblebee flew anyway.

[Daddymac]

Hurricane Irma is a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185mph! The latest model data continues to be in disagreement as the hurricane approaches Florida. We do see agreement on the turn north, but where that turn occurs is the biggest question. The latest ECMWF model run shows this turn occurring much more west and it brings Irma up along the Western coast of Florida. The GFS is quicker to turn Irma and shows impacts across Eastern Florida into the Carolinas. If the turn happens quicker it could head out to sea, which shows up on a few ECMWF ensembles, but this is the least favored solution at this time.

[tuccillo]

The 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code shows a northerly track that is east of the 12Z cycle; well out over the water east of the FL coast with landfall near the NC/SC border. The path takes it through most of the Bahamas. While this would certainly be ideal for FL, the ensembles and other codes would suggest that it is not the most likely solution. The last 3 cycles of the NWS code have all favored the east side of FL.

The earlier 12Z cycle of the ECMWF code has Irma making landfall in southwest FL and then moving north up the spine of FL. The ECMWF code is run twice a day off of the 00Z and 12Z data dumps - will have to wait until early morning for the 00Z solution from the ECMWF code.

The NHC forecasters like the more southerly route in the 5PM discussion and track forecast. They would not have seen the 18Z cycle of the NWS spectral code for the 5PM discussion track forecast. Here is the latest track forecast:

HURRICANE IRMA

Tomorrow's 5PM discussion and track forecast from the NHC will be the interesting one to watch as we will see their thoughts on whether they favor the west coast of FL or up the spine of FL. However, we will be looking at 4-5 day track forecast with an average track error of 200 miles. Stay tuned.

[patfla06]

Originally Posted by coffeebean

We lived in South Florida during Andrew. I distinctly remember Brian Norcross telling us anything along the ground would not become a missile. He told us to turn our large potted plants on their sides etc. Tornadoes, however, can make anything become a missile no matter where it is. I'm surely hoping the landscape rocks will stay put. There is an awful lot of them in TV.

I hope you're right!

[patfla06]

Wishing for the best, praying hard and hoping we will all be safe.

[tuccillo]

Sorry, it doesn't make any difference. There simply isn't enough pressure difference to cause an explosion. It is actually the time rate of change of pressure. This has been debunked for ages. Your ears will pop (i.e. sense a pressure change) with remarkably small differences in pressure. The roof flying off of one house and not another is not proof and is not a controlled experiment to prove a point. You can actually construct an argument that opening the windows will aid in the removal of your roof. The bumblebee story is actually another piece of urban myth.

There are lots of urban myths and scenarios that people construct that would appear to make sense but in reality just aren't true. It is never a question of "theory vs. practice". It is a question of whether it is actually true. One of my favorites is that a golf ball won't fly as far when it is humid because the air is "thick". It would seem to make sense and I am sure there are lots of people who believe this and swear by it (i.e. when it is humid I always need to take an extra club) but it isn't true. In reality, a golf ball will fly farther in humid air than dry air, albeit the difference is typically negligible.

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa

Originally Posted by Carl in Tampa
Opening windows inside of a house is for tornadoes, not hurricanes. An approaching tornado brings a low pressure which causes houses to explode outward from internal air pressure.

Simply have food and water, and be prepared to live without electricity for a few days.




I love science. I also love experience. It's kind of like theory versus practice.

Several years ago my wife was home with our young son. She heard the tornado coming. She saw it coming. She felt a pressure building up in her ears.

She opened the front room jalousie windows. She heard the air hissing out as she did. She felt the air pressure in her ears lessen.

She saw a part of the roof of the house across the street fly up into the air. A part of the roof of the house next door flew up into the air. Our house was undamaged.

I recall that for decades science said that the Bumblebee was aerodynamically incapable of flight. Not knowing better, the Bumblebee flew anyway.

[DeanFL]

our next move:

[sallybowron]

Since my sister lives in SC and we have been planning on visiting her, we are leaving tomorrow and if the hurricane goes there, we will all go to stay with family in Cincinnati. Killing two birds with one stone. Stay safe everyone!

[tuccillo]

The 00Z NWS and ECMWF spectral model cycles are now remarkably like each other. The NWS code is lifting the trough in the east out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is important as it impacts the steering current. Both codes are now taking Irma up the east side of FL and making landfall around SC. The NWS code is just a bit faster, which is consistent with lifting the trough out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is 4 cycles in a row that the NWS code has taken Irma up the east coast of FL. A limited area code, HWRF, is now also taking Irma up the east coast of FL with its 00Z cycle.

The 11PM NHC forecast discussion (which was prepared before seeing the 00Z runs) made reference to the earlier cycles of the NWS code as outliers and favored the more westerly ECMWF solutions. The official forecast track favors a path pointing to the western side of FL. It will be interesting to see if the 5AM forecast discussion favors a more easterly solution after seeing the 00Z cycle runs of both global codes and HWRF. Here is the official forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA

Note that the envelope surrounding the official forecast track does encompass the east coast of FL. We are still out at 5 days with a correspondingly large potential error in the forecast track.

[Allegiance]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

The 00Z NWS and ECMWF spectral model cycles are now remarkably like each other. The NWS code is lifting the trough in the east out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is important as it impacts the steering current. Both codes are now taking Irma up the east side of FL and making landfall around SC. The NWS code is just a bit faster, which is consistent with lifting the trough out a bit faster than the ECMWF code. This is 4 cycles in a row that the NWS code has taken Irma up the east coast of FL.

The 11PM NHC forecast discussion (which was prepared before seeing the 00Z runs), made reference to the 18Z (and previous cycles) of the NWS code but referred to them as outliers and favored the more westerly ECMWF solution. The official forecast track favors a path pointing to the western side of FL. It will be interesting to see if the 5AM forecast discussion favors a more easterly solution after seeing the 00Z cycle runs of both codes. Here is the official forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA

Note that the envelope surrounding the forecast track does encompass the east coast of FL. We are still out at 5 days with a correspondingly large potential error in the forecast track.

Great info. Thanks.

You believe the noaa link you provided will shortly change to a more easterly?

I hope.

[Nucky]

Thank You tuccillo.