[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Current trends where? There are many places in the world where deaths and new cases are dropping to almost zero with no new surge like Florida. Look at this chart showing deaths per million of New York State and Sweden. New York locked down on March 17, recommended facemasks in early April. Sweden did neither of these. But both places show a rapid rise to a peak and then the numbers start dropping, heading towards zero. Neither Sweden or New York State is showing a huge surge in new cases like Florida. Only conclusion one can make is NY and Sweden have reached a herd immunity threshold, while Florida has not.

Attachment 85328

Many scientists like Michael Levitt, Nobel Prize winner at Stanford, have studied the data from all over the world and conclude that HIT is less than 30%. This does not mean 30% of population must be confirmed positive by tests. It's estimated that there are 10 times as many untested asymptomatic cases as there are confirmed positives.

Now many studies are showing an even greater number of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like common cold. Here is a new study from Oxford.

News report:

Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent

Actual study:

The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf

Based on these studies, I predict Florida's surge of new cases will start to fall by the end of this month. It's too bad that the percent positive numbers on Florida's website are inaccurate due to the reporting all positives problem, as that could serve as a good indicator. I could be wrong, but if that actually happens, I will remind you that I predicted this at the beginning of July.

The whole herd idea is wrong and bizarro! It takes 60% positive cases to achieve "herd immunity". Florida has 14% today positive cases today. (St Pete has 9% because they went to masks). Sweden's overall deaths are 11 times neighboring Norway. Only 25% of Swedes in Stockholm have been exposed. They ADMIT that their "herd immunity" attempt did not work. Just Google that! But, all the charts in the world are not as significant as the fact that the US is #1 in the world for mishandling the CV Plague. We should only have about 60,000 deaths today. The US is currently # 5 in world ranking for deaths (and rising due to rising case). I don't understand the effort to misinform the Villiage people by poo - pooing the problem - what is the motivation for that? To kill as many Village people as possible?

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Well lots of people on fb are starting threads saying it is a hoax

Russian hacking bots??????

[billethkid]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Here is a ray of hope from a valid source;

Oxford coronavirus vaccine safe and promising, according to early human trial results published in the Lancet

Let's hope the progress continues positive.
I think the vaccine will become the catalyst that will determine what acceptable risk levels could be for for resumption of normal life styles similar to the flu, auto accidents, flying, et al.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by collie1228

If there is an effective, long-term vaccine made available to everyone, meaning everyone in the world, then there is a chance this pandemic can be stopped. If it is like the flu, with an annual vaccine that is basically a "educated guess" as to its effectiveness, we are in for a long slog with this evil virus. Even if an effective vaccine is developed, we as a society will have to deal with the vaccine deniers, who could make it tough on world populations by their irrational attitudes towards their children being vaccinated. I'm beginning to think that maybe the best solution is to go for the herd immunity. Let everyone be exposed to the virus, and whoever lives, lives. A hard solution for sure, but if exposure to the virus gives you antibodies for life, maybe that is the best solution. Frankly, I don't know. What I do know is everything the experts say flies in the face of human nature, especially American nature, which prizes its freedoms more than anything. We are in a big pickle, for sure.

A "pickle" caused by procrastination, greed, power, maybe prejudice, and overall lack of empathy. What would Jesus have to lead his sheep away from the slaughter ????

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CS1987

The swine flu in 1968/1969 killed an estimated 100,000 Americans. The population of the US was about 203 million people. The swine flu killed 1 million people worldwide. Most people who died were 65 and older. The population of the US now is about 325 million people. There were no lockdown's, mask wearing, social distancing, etc. In 1969.

Virus apples and oranges.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The whole herd idea is wrong and bizarro! It takes 60% positive cases to achieve "herd immunity". Florida has 14% today positive cases today. (St Pete has 9% because they went to masks). Sweden's overall deaths are 11 times neighboring Norway. Only 25% of Swedes in Stockholm have been exposed. They ADMIT that their "herd immunity" attempt did not work. Just Google that! But, all the charts in the world are not as significant as the fact that the US is #1 in the world for mishandling the CV Plague. We should only have about 60,000 deaths today. The US is currently # 5 in world ranking for deaths (and rising due to rising case). I don't understand the effort to misinform the Villiage people by poo - pooing the problem - what is the motivation for that? To kill as many Village people as possible?

I am not sure if it's worth the bother to reply to people who don't read links but I'll try to be nice.

First, the number of confirmed positive tests in Florida is only the tip of the iceberg. There have been 100s of scientific studies by DOCTORS that show that the number of asymptomatic cases that are out there dwarfs the number of confirmed positive tests.
CDC Director Redfield recently stated that it is probably 10 times as many asymptomatics as confirmed cases. That means if we currently have 360,000 cases confirmed by testing, there are actually 3,600,000 cases out there if you add untested asymptomatics. Asymptomatics don't die but they can and do spread the virus.

Second, new scientific studies by DOCTORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS (like the Oxford study I linked) are now proposing that there are huge numbers of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold. These people, when exposed to the virus, do not get sick because their T cells fight it off. They also do not show up in antibody tests.

Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent

I didn't come up with the idea that the herd immunity threshold is 30% or less, a Nobel Prize winner from Stanford named Michael Levitt did. He did this after analyzing data from countries all over the world. The epidemiologists at Oxford in their study I previously linked, confirm this theory.

You can see that in reality, places like New York and Sweden have reached the herd immunity threshold already. Even though New York used lockdowns and masks, while Sweden did not, their graphs for daily deaths go up to a peak and then down in a very similar way. Both places now are approaching zero in new deaths and cases with no surge like we have in Florida.



Florida has not reached the threshold yet, but will very soon (by end of July) and then new cases will start going down. We will have an uptick in new deaths for a few more weeks (deaths lag)and then those will start going down too. My prediction is based on known number of confirmed positives, and estimated asymptomatics and T cell immunes. When these reach a certain percentage of population, the virus runs out of targets.

As always, I advise my fellow elderly and at risk neighbors to stay out of buildings except home and take no risks until new cases start approaching zero.

[DON10E]

It may all get real easy soon.

Business Insider logo Business Insider 5 hrs ago

Shares of small UK biotech firm Synairgen spiked as much as 552% higher on Monday after the company revealed its experimental coronavirus drug was mostly successful in preventing the development of serious COVID-19 symptoms.

The company's SNG001 drug reduced the odds of a patient needing ventilation or dying by 79% compared to those receiving a placebo, the company said Monday. Patients receiving the drug were also more than twice as likely to recover and experienced a "markedly reduced" level of breathlessness.

"This assessment of SNG001 in COVID-19 patients could signal a major breakthrough in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients," CEO Richard Marsden said in a press release. "Our efforts are now focused on working with the regulators and other key groups to progress this potential COVID-19 treatment as rapidly as possible."

Synairgen's trial involved 220 subjects in the UK. Further analysis of the trial's results will take place over the coming weeks.

The stock's Monday leap follows similar upswings for biotech stocks racing to introduce the first effective coronavirus treatment. Industry giants including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Gilead are among the several firms with drugs undergoing trials.

Moderna soared as much as 18% on Thursday after its experimental drug safely produced antibodies in all 45 of its Phase 1 trial participants.

Synairgen's stock traded at 232.23 pence ($2.91) per share as of 8:30 ET Monday, up 3,185% year-to-date.

[Baywayric]

Originally Posted by CS1987

The swine flu in 1968/1969 killed an estimated 100,000 Americans. The population of the US was about 203 million people. The swine flu killed 1 million people worldwide. Most people who died were 65 and older. The population of the US now is about 325 million people. There were no lockdown's, mask wearing, social distancing, etc. In 1969.

Actually, in 68/69 it was the Hong Kong Flu, which killed between 1 and 4 million people worldwide. The Swine Flu pandemic was in 2009, and killed between 150,000 and 575,000 people worldwide. In addition to no lockdown’s, masks, distancing, etc., there was no internet, Facebook or Twitter.

[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by Martian

To me, it is a confusing structure, but I believe taken in the context of the rest of the post it is intended to mean schools should not be opened at this time.

ie. "Should schools NOT be allowed to start the new school year? Absolutely should not be allowed to open"

Not at all what the OP meant. Should not? Absolutely not? Perhaps the OP will come back and clarify. If not, I stand on my opinion.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

I am not sure if it's worth the bother to reply to people who don't read links but I'll try to be nice.

First, the number of confirmed positive tests in Florida is only the tip of the iceberg. There have been 100s of scientific studies by DOCTORS that show that the number of asymptomatic cases that are out there dwarfs the number of confirmed positive tests.
CDC Director Redfield recently stated that it is probably 10 times as many asymptomatics as confirmed cases. That means if we currently have 360,000 cases confirmed by testing, there are actually 3,600,000 cases out there if you add untested asymptomatics. Asymptomatics don't die but they can and do spread the virus.

Second, new scientific studies by DOCTORS and EPIDEMIOLOGISTS (like the Oxford study I linked) are now proposing that there are huge numbers of people who have T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold. These people, when exposed to the virus, do not get infected because their T cells fight it off. They also do not show up in antibody tests. They have natural immunity and do not spread the virus.

Coronavirus: Levels of herd immunity in UK may already be high enough to prevent second wave, study suggests | The Independent

I didn't come up with the idea that the herd immunity threshold is 30% or less, a Nobel Prize winner from Stanford named Michael Levitt did. He did this after analyzing data from countries all over the world. The epidemiologists at Oxford in their study I previously linked, confirm this theory.

You can see that in reality, places like New York and Sweden have reached the herd immunity threshold already. Even though New York used lockdowns and masks, while Sweden did not, their graphs for daily deaths go up to a peak and then down in a very similar way. Both places now are approaching zero in new deaths and cases with no surge like we have in Florida.

Attachment 85351

Florida has not reached the threshold yet, but will very soon (by end of July) and then new cases will start going down. We will have an uptick in new deaths for a few more weeks (deaths lag)and then those will start going down too. My prediction is based on known number of confirmed positives, and estimated asymptomatics and T cell immunes. When these reach a certain percentage of population, the virus runs out of targets.

As always, I advise my fellow elderly and at risk neighbors to stay out of buildings except home and take no risks until new cases start approaching zero.

Everyone in the Villages is elderly. When you downplay the CV facts ( so cleverly ), I know that it's end result will be more DEAD Villagers. Jesus will NOT be mad at me. And I feel so proud that you lower yourself to help me understand the multitude of graphs and words intended to dismiss the severity of this PLAGUE. A very expert doctor predicts that when CV runs its course that 800,000 US citizens will be DEAD! Many will DIE of CV in TV. I won't be to blame. I will promise to read your links when you promise to Google -- "Sweden admits to being wrong ABOUT "HERD IMMUNITY"!
There are Doctors and nurses rushing to Miami. I believe that freezer trucks are ordered. Perhaps THEY forgot to read your pretty graphs? I hope it is not too LATE to call them back. People that downplay, should ask, "What if I am wrong". The wrong answer is DEATH TO FRIENDS. The other answer is only inconvenience. What choice would a good gambler make? And then there is my question about motivation? I KNOW why I am saying my ideas.

[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Everyone in the Villages is elderly. When you downplay the CV facts ( so cleverly ), I know that it's end result will be more DEAD Villagers. Jesus will NOT be mad at me. And I feel so proud that you lower yourself to help me understand the multitude of graphs and words intended to dismiss the severity of this PLAGUE. A very expert doctor predicts that when CV runs its course that 800,000 US citizens will be DEAD! Many will DIE of CV in TV. I won't be to blame. I will promise to read your links when you promise to Google -- "Sweden admits to being wrong ABOUT "HERD IMMUNITY"!
There are Doctors and nurses rushing to Miami. I believe that freezer trucks are ordered. Perhaps THEY forgot to read your pretty graphs? I hope it is not too LATE to call them back. People that downplay, should ask, "What if I am wrong". The wrong answer is DEATH TO FRIENDS. The other answer is only inconvenience. What choice would a good gambler make? And then there is my question about motivation? I KNOW why I am saying my ideas.

I googled your site and found it was posted June 3rd, a lifetime ago in virus terms. I then googled the CURRENT conditions in Sweden as of July 19. Interestingly, there was ONE death on 7/19 which was the lowest since March 10th's zero deaths at the beginning of the pandemic. I also saw that new cases were 115. Again the lowest daily number since March 10th's total of 98. All of this without shutting the economy down and no surge like we have now. So, Sweden did make a mistake by not encouraging the older part of the population to take precautions early enough but then again, who knew at the beginning of this whole mess? You can verify this data here: Sweden Coronavirus: 78,048 Cases and 5,639 Deaths - Worldometer

My bottom line is it looks like Sweden is ahead of us now due to herd immunity.

[valuemkt]

How will this play out ? Old people will die, as they have since the beginning of time. Regretfully, many will die at home, alone and depressed, scared by mass media that all of a sudden every person that looks twice at them is contagious and will make them die .. earlier than they would have.. In a few short months the entire country has become a leper colony, except that no one can see the sores, so the assumption is that everyone is a carrier. And now many of these people are trying to condemn children to the same fear that has overtaken them, depriving young energetic children of their right to learn and grow . The virus, of course has turned political, and the fear mongerers want to impose interminable isolation onto the entire nation, saying that the entire country needs to be shut down until a cure or vaccine is found, even though a small portion of them will consider immediately taking one.. So many of all age groups will either die of atrophy or violence as the law of unintended consequences eliminate years of progress and accomplishments. The country has never been more vulnerable to an enemy attack.. let's pray that the country gets back to work and school quickly.. and that we shore up our defenses .. via medicine, self sufficiency, and pure American strength and ingenuity. Fear and isolation is not a strategy or formula for a long, enjoyable, prosperous life.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Aloha1

I googled your site and found it was posted June 3rd, a lifetime ago in virus terms. I then googled the CURRENT conditions in Sweden as of July 19. Interestingly, there was ONE death on 7/19 which was the lowest since March 10th's zero deaths at the beginning of the pandemic. I also saw that new cases were 115. Again the lowest daily number since March 10th's total of 98. All of this without shutting the economy down and no surge like we have now. So, Sweden did make a mistake by not encouraging the older part of the population to take precautions early enough but then again, who knew at the beginning of this whole mess? You can verify this data here: Sweden Coronavirus: 78,048 Cases and 5,639 Deaths - Worldometer

My bottom line is it looks like Sweden is ahead of us now due to herd immunity.

Thanks for posting facts. 75% of Sweden's death total came from nursing homes. Everyone missed the danger for these very old and vulnerable.

Yes there are many countries that currently have no surge. These are most likely due to a low herd immunity threshold as I have explained. Florida should get there very soon at the rate we are going.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Everyone in the Villages is elderly. When you downplay the CV facts ( so cleverly ), I know that it's end result will be more DEAD Villagers. Jesus will NOT be mad at me. And I feel so proud that you lower yourself to help me understand the multitude of graphs and words intended to dismiss the severity of this PLAGUE. A very expert doctor predicts that when CV runs its course that 800,000 US citizens will be DEAD! Many will DIE of CV in TV. I won't be to blame. I will promise to read your links when you promise to Google -- "Sweden admits to being wrong ABOUT "HERD IMMUNITY"!
There are Doctors and nurses rushing to Miami. I believe that freezer trucks are ordered. Perhaps THEY forgot to read your pretty graphs? I hope it is not too LATE to call them back. People that downplay, should ask, "What if I am wrong". The wrong answer is DEATH TO FRIENDS. The other answer is only inconvenience. What choice would a good gambler make? And then there is my question about motivation? I KNOW why I am saying my ideas.

A "very expert Doctor" LOL

Everything in my post is factual. There are tons of asymptomatics out there, and T cells can and do defeat the coronavirus. Many countries and US states appear to have reached herd immunity. This virus does not spread exponentially as once was feared. If it did, all of Sweden would be infected and their death toll would be much higher. The deaths and cases rose to a peak and then fell, now approaching zero. There is no other explanation for this other than herd immunity.

I won't be to blame if any more Villagers die from covid 19. Read this last sentence again very carefully.

As always, I advise my fellow elderly and at risk neighbors to stay out of buildings except home and take no risks until new cases start approaching zero.

The reason I say stay out of all buildings except home is simple. Asymptomatics do not spread the virus thru larger droplets from sneezes and coughs. They are ASYMPTOMATIC. They spread the virus just by breathing and talking, very small particles which will not be stopped by a cloth mask and can hang in the air in enclosed spaces for quite some time.

[Martian]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

A "very expert Doctor" LOL
The reason I say stay out of all buildings except home is simple. Asymptomatics do not spread the virus thru larger droplets from sneezes and coughs. They are ASYMPTOMATIC. They spread the virus just by breathing and talking, very small particles which will not be stopped by a cloth mask and can hang in the air in enclosed spaces for quite some time.

When someone says "won't be stopped by clothes masks" they imply cloth masks are useless and that is not the case. The masks reduce the chances. If both are wearing cloth masks then it is double the reduction. It is not an all or nothing situation. Helping is better than not helping.